Greece first current account surplus in 2 years
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  Greece first current account surplus in 2 years
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Beet
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« on: September 28, 2012, 08:14:11 PM »
« edited: September 28, 2012, 08:19:29 PM by Beet »



For one month, Greece was more or less self-sufficient. Of course, this does not necessarily signify much, as in other countries such as Spain, you also saw one-off surpluses on a monthly basis, only for it to swing back later. However, it is worth noting that through the first seven months, Greece's current account deficit fell by 53%. That means that the pain Greece has endured for the past year is more than one-half the total it must suffer until it no longer needs external financing to cover its current account. Which is a good approximation of the point where it no longer needs external financing to cover its physical needs.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444450004578004074025147926.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

A year ago, the euro crisis seemed to be expanding to more countries... now it seems that countries are falling off the crisis map. First Ireland, then Portugal, and for now it appears that Italy has won some confidence. It is really only down to Greece and Spain. Of the two, Spain is of greater concern at the moment, as Mariano Rajoy will likely need a rescure package from the Troika and the sooner he gets it, the better off he will be, although he is loathe to ask for it. He must know it is inevitable.

Btw... for those who still think 'Those profliage Greeks' .. the same article says that Greek's primary budget deficit is 1.5 pct of GDP. Meanwhile the IMF says that Japan's primary budget deficit for 2012 will be 7.5 pct of GDP. Yet Japan is currently rated nearly as safe as Germany on the CDS sovereign bond market. Sure, keep on saying it's all about government deficits and nothing to do with currency...
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2012, 08:26:42 PM »

Looking at the chart more closely.. the clear seasonal pattern is obvious. Around summertime each year there is a sharp fall in Greece's CA deficit... in fact in 2011 and 2010 it nearly ran a surplus and fell just short. Could it have to do with tourist arrivals?

http://www.sete.gr/files/Media/Ebook/2011/110428_SETE_Greek%20Tourism%20Facts%20&%20Figures%202010%20Edition.pdf

The source shows that tourist season in Greece is from May to October, with a big peak in August. If it is true that tourism plays such a large role in Greece's current account, then the idea that I've floated around here several times to give northern Europeans vouchers that would pay their way for vacation in Greece would have made (and could still make) a significant dent in the problem (and increase Greece's employment opportunities as well) without handing any a penny to the Greek government or banks.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2012, 10:24:19 AM »

Beet, that solution would not entail any permanent shift of power to the right institutions. Wink
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