PA -- Obama 47 Romney 45

[pa2011]

Susquehanna Poll:  

http://www.politicspa.com/susquehanna-poll-obama-47-romney-45/42205/


Obama 47, Romney 45.

But caution that represents NO CHANGE from the Susquehanna Poll on Sept. 23, and many have theorized this polling firm is way, way too favorable to the GOP in PA.  It's always been the outlier.

[Tender Branson]

Good to see that Obama's still ahead there by 5-10 in reality.

[pa2011]

The geographic breakdowns of this also seem quite messed up. No way Romney is up to 51 percent in Allegheny County but yet is only getting 49 percent in the rest of Southwest. Also, don't see how Obama has a 20 point lead in Northwest PA (Erie is not that big).  And a 5-point lead for Obama in Philadelphia burbs seems too small. 

[Umengus]

47-46 with leaners.

[Comrade Funk]

So, Obama 51-44 or so if this was a respectable poll?

[minionofmidas]

The geographic breakdowns of this also seem quite messed up. No way Romney is up to 51 percent in Allegheny County but yet is only getting 49 percent in the rest of Southwest. Also, don't see how Obama has a 20 point lead in Northwest PA (Erie is not that big).  And a 5-point lead for Obama in Philadelphia burbs seems too small. 

How many people in those subsamples - especially the NW PA one (and do they include University-in-the-Middle-of-Nowhere under NW?)
Let's face it, regional subsamples on polls tend to exist mostly for entertainment purposes.

[pbrower2a]

Not a credible pollster. It typically gives results 5-7% more favorable to Republicans than does even Rasmussen. That is a huge 'house effect'.

I do not use this pollster for my maps.

[NVGonzalez]

Republican polls, Republican polls everywhere.

[Ty440]

Somewhere Krazen is saying...DOMINATING

[dirks]

Doubt PA has tightened this much so quickly...however it wouldn't shock me if Romney was about 4-5 points out now. But 2 is too close

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Doubt PA has tightened this much so quickly...however it wouldn't shock me if Romney was about 4-5 points out now. But 2 is too close

This polling firm has been AWFUL, so I wouldn't think too much about it.

[tmthforu94]

Database Entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220121006129

[Nhoj]

I read somewhere that this poll is an improvement over their last poll for obama.
Edit: http://www.politicspa.com/pagop-poll-obama-48-romney-47/41347/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I read somewhere that this poll is an improvement over their last poll for obama.

Yeah... Obama +1 was the last one I believe...

[J. J.]

Database Entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220121006129

Oh, c'mon!

Well, PA is probably closer, but not this close.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Database Entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220121006129

Oh, c'mon!

Well, PA is probably closer, but not this close.

Yeah, I'll agree with JJ on this. No way PA is MoE close...

[AmericanNation]

Couldn't the Philly burbs shift from D to R rather quickly??   Especially with how centrist-from-right Mitt is, aka: "moderate".     

[memphis]

Couldn't the Philly burbs shift from D to R rather quickly??   Especially with how centrist-from-right Mitt is, aka: "moderate".     

They very well could. Philly has extremely white for a very large city. Looks much more like suburban Minneapolis than suburban New York.

[AmericanNation]

Couldn't the Philly burbs shift from D to R rather quickly??   Especially with how centrist-from-right Mitt is, aka: "moderate".     

They very well could. Philly has extremely white for a very large city. Looks much more like suburban Minneapolis than suburban New York.

The 'inner burbs' around Milwaukee (within Milwaukee county) are similar I think.  They aren't anywhere near as R as the (counties)-burbs outside Milwaukee county, but they have a much different personality than they did 10 years ago (pre Scott Walker becoming the first R county Executive ever).  Blue Collar Union whites (or their households/families) account for a good part of the change. Ethnically Poles, Serbs, Irish, etc.     

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Couldn't the Philly burbs shift from D to R rather quickly??   Especially with how centrist-from-right Mitt is, aka: "moderate".    

Maybe. Montgomery, where half the GOP supports Democrats at a state and national level, and Delaware, which has some GOP-leaning rural and suburban areas but a urban and diverse coast, are safe for Obama. Philadelphia itself is obviously hardcore Obama (almost certainly >80% for him this year) due to African-American wards that literally had >400 votes for Obama and 1 or 2 for McCain in 2008, and only slightly less Democratic Latino and white liberal areas. But Northeast Philadelphia is more suburban and quite affluent, and is often swingy or leaning Democratic.

If Romney's gain comes from the Philly metro, it's likely in Chester and Bucks counties, which are a bit more exurban and rural, and the two wealthiest counties in Pennsylvania. Traditionally, Bucks, which is a little more blue-collar, has tilted D, while Chester voted Democratic in 2008 for the first time since Johnson. Chester, especially, is heavily Republican at a local level, and Romney may be appealing to the fiscally conservative-leaning, socially moderate suburban Republicans and Independents there (as seen in 2010, they can be pretty erratic).

But even if Romney wins both Chester and Bucks, he won't win without the Lehigh Valley (Lehigh and Northumberland counties). Those two are like miniature Pennsylvanias; they have urban, suburban, and rural areas, wealthy and blue-collar, service-based and manufacturing-based areas. Obama overperformed in both in 2008, but they usually vote at the state average or slightly more Democratic.

Finally, Romney has to take back Dauphin and Berks. Traditionally, Central Pennsylvania, filled with socially conservative Germans, is hardcore Republican (Lancaster, the center of Amishland and where I live, only voted Democratic once--in 1964--after 1856, but sometimes likes local Democrats). However, the area's recently seen both an influx in Latino (and to a lesser extent, Asian) migrants, many from Philadelphia. Mennonites, who are beginning to show both pacifist and Christian Left tendencies, also trended pretty Democratic in 2008, though are still very Republican.

The final part of Pennsylvania to watch is the Southwest. Obama lost several counties here for the first time since McGovern (who was even more awful for the economically populist but culturally conservative people here). A lot of them were bitter over Hillary's loss, and to put it bluntly, others were freaked out by a foreign-sounding Ivy League-educated Chicago black man. Westmoreland is a lost cause for Obama, but given his more populistic tone and the seeming Democratic trend in Ohio (thanks to the auto bailouts and Bain attacks), there's a decent shot of Obama at least carrying Greene and Fayette, which are locally heavily Democratic and nearly voted for Sestak; the former went for Toomey by just 19 votes. Beaver is a tossup/tilt R in my opinion, while Washington, which is becoming somewhat exurban, probably leans Romney. Obama probably holds Cambria as well.

[AmericanNation]

Couldn't the Philly burbs shift from D to R rather quickly??   Especially with how centrist-from-right Mitt is, aka: "moderate".     

Maybe. Montgomery, where half the GOP supports Democrats at a state and national level, and Delaware, which has some GOP-leaning rural and suburban areas but a urban and diverse coast, are safe for Obama. Philadelphia itself is obviously hardcore Obama (almost certainly >80% for him this year) due to African-American wards that literally had >400 votes for Obama and 1 or 2 for McCain in 2008, and only slightly less Democratic Latino and white liberal areas. But Northeast Philadelphia is more suburban and quite affluent, and is often swingy or leaning Democratic.

If Romney's gain comes from the Philly metro, it's likely in Chester and Berks counties, which are a bit more exurban and rural, and the two wealthiest counties in Pennsylvania. Traditionally, Bucks, which is a little more blue-collar, has tilted D, while Chester voted Democratic in 2008 for the first time since Johnson. Chester, especially, is heavily Republican at a local level, and Romney may be appealing to the fiscally conservative-leaning, socially moderate suburban Republicans and Independents there (as seen in 2010, they can be pretty erratic).

But even if Romney wins both Chester and Berks, he won't win without the Lehigh Valley (Lehigh and Northumberland counties). Those two are like miniature Pennsylvanias; they have urban, suburban, and rural areas, wealthy and blue-collar, service-based and manufacturing-based areas. Obama overperformed in both in 2008, but they usually vote at the state average or slightly more Democratic.

Finally, Romney has to take back Dauphin and Berks. Traditionally, Central Pennsylvania, filled with socially conservative Germans, is hardcore Republican (Lancaster, the center of Amishland and where I live, only voted Democratic once--in 1964--after 1856, but sometimes likes local Democrats). However, the area's recently seen both an influx in Latino (and to a lesser extent, Asian) migrants, many from Philadelphia. Mennonites, who are beginning to show both pacifist and Christian Left tendencies, also trended pretty Democratic in 2008, though are still very Republican.

The final part of Pennsylvania to watch is the Southwest. Obama lost several counties here for the first time since McGovern (who was even more awful for the economically populist but culturally conservative people here). A lot of them were bitter over Hillary's loss, and to put it bluntly, others were freaked out by a foreign-sounding Ivy League-educated Chicago black man. Westmoreland is a lost cause for Obama, but given his more populistic tone and the seeming Democratic trend in Ohio (thanks to the auto bailouts and Bain attacks), there's a decent shot of Obama at least carrying Greene and Fayette, which are locally heavily Democratic and nearly voted for Sestak; the former went for Toomey by just 19 votes. Beaver is a tossup/tilt R in my opinion, while Washington, which is becoming somewhat exurban, probably leans Romney. Obama probably holds Cambria as well.

Good Rundown, thanks.

I'm particularly fascinated with the 'Midland' 'hearth' of Pennsylvania and America.  Where I live in Eastern Wisconsin is essentially a 'midland island' that developed shortly after and displaced Yankee settlement.  It is different than PA, but essentially comprised of a very similar 'element'.  One interesting thing about the midlands is that it is the 'American nation' the least aware of itself and yet perhaps the most "American" of them all.