Pew apparently has Romney leading Obama 49-45.

[dirks]

They were wrong then and they're wrong now

My guess....Romney +1 nationally

[minionofmidas]

You know what's funny about a question in this poll, it asks "Who Would Help the Middle Class?", and in the past month, Romney has surged 8 points on that question. And you know who's driving that surge? Upper Income Americans who 47% said he did last month, and now 68% do now.

47%, eh?

[opebo]

Presumably people who responded to the poll did not want to acknowledge voting for a chump who got his rear kicked repeatedly. Shrug.

Yeah that .... got the whuppin' he deserved, eh krazen?  Please try to watch your language in order to avoid being perceived as using racist codings.

You seem to perceive racist codings throughout the electorate. Didn't you tar the state of Ohio as such? I would suspect that such is fueling the Democrat collapse among whites.

Sure, I call a spade a spade, krazen.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

You know what's funny about a question in this poll, it asks "Who Would Help the Middle Class?", and in the past month, Romney has surged 8 points on that question. And you know who's driving that surge? Upper Income Americans who 47% said he did last month, and now 68% do now.

47%, eh?

I just realized the irony. That's beautiful.

[krazen1211]

Sure, I call a spade a spade, krazen.

Sure. That's respectable.

I'm not sure how nominating a black and whining about racism is a strong election strategy if you are correct. But carry on.

[Yank2133]

I do like Nate's response.

According to Twitter, Barack Obama went from a huge favorite at 1 PM to a huge underdog at 4 PM. Get a grip, people.

[opebo]

Sure, I call a spade a spade, krazen.

Sure. That's respectable.

I'm not sure how nominating a black and whining about racism is a strong election strategy if you are correct. But carry on.

Dude, I'm not part of any election strategy, I'm a crank on the internet, just like you.

[TheGlobalizer]

Pew isn't bad but they're high variance.

[afleitch]

Pew also showed an R+3 advantage compared to a D+6 advantage back in mid-September.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think they've been a little sensitive to the enthusiasm question...

[Likely Voter]

Its like the Pew polls have a big momentum sensitivity with their wild swings. While I dont buy the headline number, I do buy that Romney got a good bounce from his debate and a big move in GOP enthusiasm, with the Dems getting unenthused.

[Skill and Chance]

I think they've been a little sensitive to the enthusiasm question...

This.

Today's reality should be somewhere between a tie and Obama+2 with the important variable being turnout.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Out any poll that has Romney ahead because only crazy people are willing to vote for Romney. *trollface* JK!!!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Jesus... look at the cross-tabs, they're an absolute mess...

[Oakvale]

^ Yeah, the internals pretty much erase any worries I had about this.

I mean, look at this. 2/3 of respondents over 50? Am I misreading this?

[Lief 🗽]

LOL 83% white.

[Linus Van Pelt]

As explained on p. 12-14 of the link, the numbers labelled "N" here are the unweighted numbers of respondents, but the voting intentions are weighted for various demographics, including age and race among others (not party ID). The unweighted numbers in polls are always slanted towards old whites; that's basically the point of weighting.

[cinyc]

^ Yeah, the internals pretty much erase any worries I had about this.

I mean, look at this. 2/3 of respondents over 50? Am I misreading this?

That's the raw data - and having a large percentage of 50+s in a polling sample is pretty common.  Which group is more likely to be home during the daytime to answer a phone?  Pew and most other pollsters then weigh the sample for things like age, race and geography.  In fact, Pew says:

"The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the 2010 Decennial Census."

[Likely Voter]

I've always said the way to look at a polls internals is to analyze age and race and not party ID. And I guess I doubt that the 2012 general election voters will be older and whiter than the 2010 midterms. If they are, then Romney will certainly win.

[Wiz in Wis]

^ Yeah, the internals pretty much erase any worries I had about this.

I mean, look at this. 2/3 of respondents over 50? Am I misreading this?

That's the raw data - and having a large percentage of 50+s in a polling sample is pretty common.  Which group is more likely to be home during the daytime to answer a phone?  Pew and most other pollsters then weigh the sample for things like age, race and geography.  In fact, Pew says:

"The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the 2010 Decennial Census."

The over 50 white crowd is also the most likely to watch the debate. I have a lot of sympathy for pollsters... Getting in touch with certain demos is damn near impossible nowadays. Plus, determining a likely voter is a lot of educated guessing.

/actually, I am a pollster
//who works for a national polling firm*
///*that stopped polling on political issues (mostly) about 2 years ago
////points to the person who guesses where I work.

[Oakvale]

I've sent this poll in to be reskewed.

[Lincoln Republican]

Regardless, the momentum is now with Mitt and Paul.

Get over it.

[J. J.]

I've never been sold on Pew.  It might be showing trend.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've never been sold on Pew.  It might be showing trend.

Well of course there was a shift toward Romney last week... we don't know whether or not a trend is in place yet.

[Kalimantan]

Presumably people who responded to the poll did not want to acknowledge voting for a chump who got his rear kicked repeatedly. Shrug.

Yeah that .... got the whuppin' he deserved, eh krazen?  Please try to watch your language in order to avoid being perceived as using racist codings.

The only one with racist codings on this board is you Opebo. Repeatedly.