Where is the race right now? w/ maps

[opebo]

This is probably the order(/tiers) the states flip to Romney as his lead increases.  Reverse for Obama working from 2nd-3rd tier up. 

(NC)
FL, VA, OH
CO, WI, IA, (NH)
(MI, PA, --- NM, NV,)

*MI, PA could switch order with NM, and NV
**NH has to go somewhere i really don't know.

Very good.  I like where you put New Hampshire and Nevada - realistic I think.  I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

Yeah, I don't think its really very realistic to include MI, PA, or (particularly) NM in this type of analysis.

[opebo]

I have no idea where you guys are getting the idea that Obama still leads nationally from. It's pretty clear that he's thrown away his national lead. Romney is in the driver's seat now, and I suspect once we getting polls of him leading in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, etc. this will become much clearer.

Yes, I'm assuming that.  when I posted this:

I would say:

(NC)
OH, FL, VA
WI, IA, CO, NH
(NV)

I should have put a line between the OH rank and the WI rank.  I think Romney probably leads in the three big ones, Obama very narrowly in the rest.  So the map looks like this at the moment:

But with 1-4 more states to shift by election day:

[opebo]

I would make a 'wild card' tier of states:
NV, MI, PA, NM, MN
that Obama should win, but that could have significant "wild card" internal shifts.

I agree with your wild cards except for New Mexico.

[opebo]

NV, MI, PA, NM, MN

I agree with your wild cards except for New Mexico.

To play off your race theory:
1) the Whites in NM are pretty strongly R and could get stronger/ turn out stronger,
2) the Navajo are uniformly D, but could turn out in lower numbers
3) the Hispanics are D 3 out of 4, but could shift some or turn out less.   
 I'm not saying it's likely, but it has a potential of happening that shouldn't be ignored. 

Nobody but whites are gonna shift, because I think non-whites are all well aware what this is about (they're certainly not going to support their own undoing).   I can't say about turnout - I would think that desperation would militate against giving up.. but maybe not.