Does Romney have the 'Big Mo'?

[Simfan34]

Yes or no?

[courts]

no

[Adam Griffin]

I think it'll wane. Had the momentum of candidates that won the first debate held steady, then Kerry would have beat Bush and Mondale would have beat Reagan. Maddow did about 15 minutes on this subject last week - basically, for ALL televised debates, every non-incumbent has been judged to have won the first one with the exception of 1996. Furthermore, what is the track record among those who won the first debate? 3 won election, 3 were defeated.

I think it will essentially make the race a coin-toss for the amount of time that it holds, which should help Romney's 538 numbers at the very least.

[Reaganfan]

To say Obama is toast is obviously not the case. But to say that Romney didn't obviously win the debate decisively, or to say that it's a good thing Obama lost the first and more important debate viewed by nearly 70 million Americans as a good thing so that he will be more "feisty" in a second or third debate is also ridiculous. There is nothing good about losing a debate, especially when the person who loses is a weak incumbent.

Even though it's trivial, my Obama voter mother and her husband both acknowledged that Romney was far superior and now feel a sense of nervousness for Obama, as well as kind of an "Oh well" concession that he may lose. This is a small sample of the broad illustration of the clear enthusiasm gap in this election.

I feel it safe to say that if the election were held on this Tuesday instead of November 6th, the election would literally be too close to call...but dare I say Romney might well win if it were held today?

Enough spin. Romney won the debate. It was devastating for Obama. That's clear from many polls after the debate. The amount of quick and ill-defined spin from Democrats, the threads quickly saying "Romney's gain is dying" just as a new PEW poll shows Romney's surge back to the lead shows that Democrats are clearly in panic mode.

You didn't see Republicans eager to announce Obama's convention bounce as fading two days after the bounce polls were released. This shows the nervousness in Obama campaign. I don't think Obama had a bad night, I think he has a weak case. Romney has the mo', but it's not over for BO.

[Silent Hunter]

No, I don't think he does at the moment.

[後援会]

Yes, but my definition of 'Big Mo' is something that moves the polls by one point or more. Because our electorate just isn't very elastic anymore. Which means that 'Big Mo' is a necessary, not a sufficient condition for Romney victory.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yes, but my definition of 'Big Mo' is something that moves the polls by one point or more. Because our electorate just isn't very elastic anymore. Which means that 'Big Mo' is a necessary, not a sufficient condition for Romney victory.

This.

[Reaganfan]

Yes, but my definition of 'Big Mo' is something that moves the polls by one point or more. Because our electorate just isn't very elastic anymore. Which means that 'Big Mo' is a necessary, not a sufficient condition for Romney victory.

A week ago this race was trouble for Romney. Now, we have a shot at winning Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa and even Colorado with Pennsylvania and Michigan looking tough but much closer.

I'd venture a guess that if the election were held today, which I understand it's not but still, Romney could win the McCain states plus Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. That sits him at 266. One other state and he is elected President.

That's a fantastic position to be in less than a month away from the election, especially when you spent all of September looking like toast.

[後援会]

Yes, but my definition of 'Big Mo' is something that moves the polls by one point or more. Because our electorate just isn't very elastic anymore. Which means that 'Big Mo' is a necessary, not a sufficient condition for Romney victory.

A week ago this race was trouble for Romney. Now, we have a shot at winning Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa and even Colorado with Pennsylvania and Michigan looking tough but much closer.

I'd venture a guess that if the election were held today, which I understand it's not but still, Romney could win the McCain states plus Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. That sits him at 266. One other state and he is elected President.

That's a fantastic position to be in less than a month away from the election, especially when you spent all of September looking like toast.

Well, besides your electoral projections (which I don't have the expertise to comment on one way or the other, not having access to the detailed polling available to both campaigns), what you're saying is that a fantastic thing, the "Big Mo", was something Romney absolutely needed in order to remain competitive in this race, and something that he got.

I agree.

[pbrower2a]

Yes or no?

He has no momentum because there is no such thing as political momentum.

Mitt Romney simply got attention that he had not been getting and exploited it forcefully. Will that work? It all depends upon your favored news sources are.

[AmericanNation]

Yes or no?

He has no momentum because there is no such thing as political momentum.

Mitt Romney simply got attention that he had not been getting and exploited it forcefully. Will that work? It all depends upon your favored news sources are.

The more people see Romney next to Obama the more they like Romney.  Likeability ratings have flipped in some polls (may not last but they have).  These two things combined with movement in the polls is probably the best definition of momentum.   

[pbrower2a]

Yes or no?

He has no momentum because there is no such thing as political momentum.

Mitt Romney simply got attention that he had not been getting and exploited it forcefully. Will that work? It all depends upon your favored news sources are.

The more people see Romney next to Obama the more they like Romney.  Likeability ratings have flipped in some polls (may not last but they have).  These two things combined with movement in the polls is probably the best definition of momentum.   

Watch something other than FoX Newspeak Channel, please.

[tmthforu94]

For the first Tuesday in months, I think that if the election were held today, Mitt Romney would be our next President.

There's certainly momentum in Romney's side - it's slowly dying off, but it's been helpful in the polls. If Romney can hold his own in the foreign policy debate and be seen as the winner of the townhall debate, I think he'll win. I doubt either campaign will have a major gaffe in the final three weeks, so unless some major world event occurs (God forbid), it'll all come down to the debates. And if they're anything close to the last one, Mitt's got this.

[J. J.]

Yes, but my definition of 'Big Mo' is something that moves the polls by one point or more. Because our electorate just isn't very elastic anymore. Which means that 'Big Mo' is a necessary, not a sufficient condition for Romney victory.

Ditto, but it may not hold.

This is the "Ephemeral Election." 

[opebo]

Profoundly so.  I'm preparing to deal with the inevitable defeat emotionally by a jaded anti-American rhetoric that has served me so well in the past - in my environment.

[DrScholl]

No. Look at the polls, there is no indication that his lead will even last, as he's gone down in trackers.

[J. J.]

No. Look at the polls, there is no indication that his lead will even last, as he's gone down in trackers.

They are even in Rasmussen today.  Obama's disapproval jumped by 3 point.

[Lief 🗽]

I think the race is likely over. Obama threw the election for some reason, and now Romney is going to win. He'll win narrowly, but a win is a win.

[J. J.]

I think the race is likely over. Obama threw the election for some reason, and now Romney is going to win. He'll win narrowly, but a win is a win.

I don't agree, as of yet.  4 weeks is several eternities in politics.

[DrScholl]

They are even in Rasmussen today.  Obama's disapproval jumped by 3 point.

I know that, I saw the poll...

Romney previously lead in Rasmussen tracker after the debate, let's be honest about that. A tie is not what we saw after the debate.

[opebo]

I think the race is likely over. Obama threw the election for some reason, and now Romney is going to win. He'll win narrowly, but a win is a win.

I don't agree, as of yet.  4 weeks is several eternities in politics.

Not so much when you're black and the momentum is racial in nature, J.J.

[J. J.]

They are even in Rasmussen today.  Obama's disapproval jumped by 3 point.

I know that, I saw the poll...

Romney previously lead in Rasmussen tracker after the debate, let's be honest about that. A tie is not what we saw after the debate.

They were tied yesterday as well.  The race may have shifted.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

"Big Mo" is an empty catchphrase. Just ask GHWB.

[J. J.]

"Big Mo" is an empty catchphrase. Just ask GHWB.

No, ask Bill Clinton.

[Torie]

I think the race is likely over. Obama threw the election for some reason, and now Romney is going to win. He'll win narrowly, but a win is a win.

Any such chart (I guess it is your sig chart) needs to be on a per capita basis since the US has more population growth the Britain.

In the meantime, that amazingly small but nevertheless key cohort of voters is giving Mittens a second look to evaluate whether he is a safe and sober alternative to the devil they know. So it is not so much "mo" as a jump ball has been thrown into the air.