Does Romney have the 'Big Mo'?

[Reaganfan]

To say Obama is toast is obviously not the case. But to say that Romney didn't obviously win the debate decisively, or to say that it's a good thing Obama lost the first and more important debate viewed by nearly 70 million Americans as a good thing so that he will be more "feisty" in a second or third debate is also ridiculous. There is nothing good about losing a debate, especially when the person who loses is a weak incumbent.

Even though it's trivial, my Obama voter mother and her husband both acknowledged that Romney was far superior and now feel a sense of nervousness for Obama, as well as kind of an "Oh well" concession that he may lose. This is a small sample of the broad illustration of the clear enthusiasm gap in this election.

I feel it safe to say that if the election were held on this Tuesday instead of November 6th, the election would literally be too close to call...but dare I say Romney might well win if it were held today?

Enough spin. Romney won the debate. It was devastating for Obama. That's clear from many polls after the debate. The amount of quick and ill-defined spin from Democrats, the threads quickly saying "Romney's gain is dying" just as a new PEW poll shows Romney's surge back to the lead shows that Democrats are clearly in panic mode.

You didn't see Republicans eager to announce Obama's convention bounce as fading two days after the bounce polls were released. This shows the nervousness in Obama campaign. I don't think Obama had a bad night, I think he has a weak case. Romney has the mo', but it's not over for BO.

[Reaganfan]

Yes, but my definition of 'Big Mo' is something that moves the polls by one point or more. Because our electorate just isn't very elastic anymore. Which means that 'Big Mo' is a necessary, not a sufficient condition for Romney victory.

A week ago this race was trouble for Romney. Now, we have a shot at winning Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa and even Colorado with Pennsylvania and Michigan looking tough but much closer.

I'd venture a guess that if the election were held today, which I understand it's not but still, Romney could win the McCain states plus Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Virginia. That sits him at 266. One other state and he is elected President.

That's a fantastic position to be in less than a month away from the election, especially when you spent all of September looking like toast.