question about Douglas County, CO

[freepcrusher]

do the people who live there commute more to Colorado Springs or Denver? I've thought that maybe people moving there from Colorado Springs explains why it is more GOP than Arapahoe (that and the fact that its whiter and richer).

[Sbane]

Denver

[jimrtex]

do the people who live there commute more to Colorado Springs or Denver? I've thought that maybe people moving there from Colorado Springs explains why it is more GOP than Arapahoe (that and the fact that its whiter and richer).

Arapahoe County is only 12 miles wide, and around 7 miles south of Denver, so it has been built up for sometime.  The housing is 50 years old, and small by modern standards.  And any infill is going to be high density.  Going east there is unlimited space, but is further from the mountains.  The black area of Denver has historically been in East Denver and has moved into Aurora.  Arapahoe County has a larger black percentage population than Denver (10.5% vs 10.3%).

Most of the population in Douglas County is right on the county line in Highland Ranch or in Parker, and it is an easy commute into the Denver Tech Center or other office complexes, which are also spilling into Douglas County.  Castle Rock is about 25 miles from Denver, 15 from the Tech Center, but 40 miles from Colorado Springs.  There is very little development south of Castle Rock and most of the land is zoned for very low density, or non-development.

The only people who would commute from Castle Rock to Colorado Springs would be couples where one spouse works in Denver and the other in Colorado Springs, and then would tend to come about from happenstance. 

[Brittain33]

Arapahoe County is only 12 miles wide, and around 7 miles south of Denver, so it has been built up for sometime.  The housing is 50 years old, and small by modern standards.

Interesting. From the Census numbers, it looks as if the population has increased about 3.5x since 1970.

1960    113,426       117.6%
1970    162,142       42.9%
1980    293,621       81.1%
1990    391,511       33.3%
2000    487,967       24.6%
2010    572,003       17.2%

[cinyc]

Arapahoe County is only 12 miles wide, and around 7 miles south of Denver, so it has been built up for sometime.  The housing is 50 years old, and small by modern standards.

Interesting. From the Census numbers, it looks as if the population has increased about 3.5x since 1970.

1960    113,426       117.6%
1970    162,142       42.9%
1980    293,621       81.1%
1990    391,511       33.3%
2000    487,967       24.6%
2010    572,003       17.2%

Arapahoe County has plenty of room to grow eastward.  The most recent growth was likely near the E-470 corridor south of Denver International Airport.

[Sbane]

I don't think most of Aurora is as well off as Highlands Ranch. Still some of those neighborhoods around E-470 do vote Republican pretty regularly, and comparable to Highlands Ranch.

[freepcrusher]

i've driven through that area before and from what I know; Aurora is a mix between a lot of minority overflow from Denver that is working class and heavily democrat to some exurban areas along 470 that are moderate to slightly republican. The most GOP parts of Arapahoe county is in the cherry creek/englewood area.

[5280]

The southeastern part of Aurora and Highlands Ranch typically vote the same way, moderate to strong GOP. Western Arapahoe county is working class and largest percent of blacks, which is an advantage for Democrats.

[jimrtex]

Arapahoe County is only 12 miles wide, and around 7 miles south of Denver, so it has been built up for sometime.  The housing is 50 years old, and small by modern standards.

Interesting. From the Census numbers, it looks as if the population has increased about 3.5x since 1970.

1960    113,426       117.6%
1970    162,142       42.9%
1980    293,621       81.1%
1990    391,511       33.3%
2000    487,967       24.6%
2010    572,003       17.2%

I meant, the area south of Denver is pretty built up.

There are 3 CCD in Arapahoe County: Southwest Arapahoe, which is the area west of Cherry Creek; South Aurora which is east of that (North Aurora CCD is in Adams County; the original town of Aurora was right on the county line - Colfax, now about 7/8 of the city of Aurora is in Arapahoe County); and East Arapahoe, which is the rural eastern end of the county.


Population in 1000s.
Year  SWA SAur EArap
1960   79   33   2
1970  104   57   2
1980  145  144   5
1990  163  224   5
2000  183  298   8
2010  188  361  23


Since 1980, SW Arapahoe CCD has increased at a compounded rate of 0.9%, while South Aurora CCD has increased at a rate 3.1%.  East Arapahoe CCD saw a significant spillover during the 2000s, as the population of Aurora in East Arapahoe CCD increased from 420 to 14,650.

So southward growth has moved into Highlands Ranch, where the houses are newer are larger.  Englewood has had around 30,000 people for 50 years, and relatively small houses.  The population per housing unit is under 2.0 (more widows, plus singles in apartments).  So you have some differentiation based on newer housing, with the newer houses being in Douglas County.

Historically, the Black population in Denver has moved eastward.  Because of the location of the old airport white flight was shifted towards the southeast.  Upwardly mobile Blacks have now moved eastward into Aurora, where the Black population is now around 20%.  Overall, Arapahoe County has a higher percentage of Blacks than Denver, even though the areas south of Denver are only 1 or 2% Black.  Because it is further from the mountains it is less desirable as a place to live, but there is an infinite amount of space to the east, so over time, Arapahoe County has tended to become more east-oriented vs. south-oriented, while Douglas County is an extension of the southward growth.

Arapahoe County originally consisted what is now Adams and Arapahoe county and extended to the Kansas state line.  Denver was the county seat at the extreme west end of the county.  When the City and County of Denver was formed, a notch was taken out of the west end of Arapahoe County, and the northern 3/5 became Adams County.  While Adams and Arapahoe counties were extremely long strips of area, most of the population was concentrated in the western end along the Platte River.  That is why the county seat of Arapahoe County is in Littleton, and the county of seat of Adams County is Brighton (further east as the Platte flows NNE).

The effect of the Adams County being wider than Arapahoe County can be seen in the changing political alignment of the two.  Historically, Adams County was a Democratic county, as the industrial areas of Denver were in the northern part of the city.   But northward suburban growth can occur for another 6 miles in Adams County.  What would be spilling into Douglas County to the south is contained in Adams County.  It is only quite recently that growth has spilled into Weld County.