Israeli General Election 2013

[danny]

My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

[Dereich]

So Lapid has now nixed a blocking coalition against Netanyahu.

[Kitteh]

My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

Where is this?

[danny]

My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

Where is this?

Kiryat Yovel, Jerusalem.

[Kitteh]

My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

Where is this?

Kiryat Yovel, Jerusalem.

Ah, somewhere in Jerusalem was going to be my guess.

[Kitteh]

The results for Kadima are really interesting and somewhat weird.

Kadima's best cities:

#1 - Isfiya

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Results:
36% Kadima
20% Likud Beitenu
8% Labor
8% Hadash
7% Balad
6% HaTnuah
4% Meretz
4% UAL-Ta'al
3% Yesh Atid
2% Ale Yarok (Marijuana legalization party)
1% Shas

#2 - Kfar Aza

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Results:
33% Kadima
26% Labor
15% Meretz
9% Yesh Atid
4% HaTnuah
4% Likud Beitenu
3% JH
3% Eretz Hadasha
1% Hadash
1% Am Shalem

#3 - Yish'i

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Results:
29% Kadima
24% Shas
24% JH
8% Koah LeHashpi'a
5% Otzma LeYisrael
3% UTJ
3% Yesh Atid
2% Am Shalem
1% HaTnuah
1% Ale Yarok
1% HaYisraelim
1% Labor

(Yep, no votes for Likud Beitenu)

#5 - Noga

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Results-
38% Likud Beitenu
24% Kadima
8% Shas
7% Yesh Atid
6% JH
5% Labor
4% HaTnuah
2% Otzma LeYisrael
1% Meretz


#5 - Hurfeish

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Results:
35% Likud Beitenu
21% Kadima
14% Shas
7% Labor
6% HaTnuah
4% Am Shalem
3% Hadash
3% JH
3% Yesh Atid
2% Meretz
1% Balad
1% UTJ


#6 - Margaliot

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Results:
24% Likud Beitenu
21% Kadima
13% JH
12% Labor
9% Yesh Atid
6% Shas
4% Koah LeHashpi'a (Here this thing is again)
4% HaTnuah
2% Ale Yarok
1% Otzma LeYisrael
1% Meretz
1% Am Shalem
1% UTJ



Looks like a mix of Druze towns and moshavim overall.

[danny]

The final 240K votes will be counted tonight. These are the "double envelope" votes, which are cast by soldiers, diplomats, prisoners, and hospital patients. So we could see a change of a couple of mandates.

[danny]

The results for Kadima are really interesting and somewhat weird.

Kadima's best cities:

#1 - Isfiya

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Results:
36% Kadima
20% Likud Beitenu
8% Labor
8% Hadash
7% Balad
6% HaTnuah
4% Meretz
4% UAL-Ta'al
3% Yesh Atid
2% Ale Yarok (Marijuana legalization party)
1% Shas

#2 - Kfar Aza

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Results:
33% Kadima
26% Labor
15% Meretz
9% Yesh Atid
4% HaTnuah
4% Likud Beitenu
3% JH
3% Eretz Hadasha
1% Hadash
1% Am Shalem

#3 - Yish'i

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Results:
29% Kadima
24% Shas
24% JH
8% Koah LeHashpi'a
5% Otzma LeYisrael
3% UTJ
3% Yesh Atid
2% Am Shalem
1% HaTnuah
1% Ale Yarok
1% HaYisraelim
1% Labor

(Yep, no votes for Likud Beitenu)

#5 - Noga

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Results-
38% Likud Beitenu
24% Kadima
8% Shas
7% Yesh Atid
6% JH
5% Labor
4% HaTnuah
2% Otzma LeYisrael
1% Meretz


#5 - Hurfeish

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Results:
35% Likud Beitenu
21% Kadima
14% Shas
7% Labor
6% HaTnuah
4% Am Shalem
3% Hadash
3% JH
3% Yesh Atid
2% Meretz
1% Balad
1% UTJ


#6 - Margaliot

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Results:
24% Likud Beitenu
21% Kadima
13% JH
12% Labor
9% Yesh Atid
6% Shas
4% Koah LeHashpi'a (Here this thing is again)
4% HaTnuah
2% Ale Yarok
1% Otzma LeYisrael
1% Meretz
1% Am Shalem
1% UTJ



Looks like a mix of Druze towns and moshavim overall.

Koah LeHashpi'a (power to influence) is a particularly rediculous party, led by Rabbi Amnon Yitzhak who likes making ridiculous promises ("Bread for a shekel"). He takes most of his votes from Shas, which is the only positive thing I can say about him.

As for Kfar Aza, it's the home of MK Shai Hermesh who has a big personal following there which helped Mofaz against Livni in the primaries.

[Vosem]

Do mine eyes deceive me, or does the YouTube map show that UTJ topped the poll in Jerusalem again?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They did pretty well this election (within their usual range of surreal-for-Israel electoral stability), so it wouldn't come as a great shock.

[Gustaf]

So...what actually happens now?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So...what actually happens now?

With Lapid ruling out an anti-Bibi coalition with Labor, Bibi is guaranteed to get the nod to form the government. He'll likely work from some combination of Likud/Yesh/Jewish Home, which gets him to 62, and then shore it up from there.

The tricky thing is what Lapid will demand. I think Netanyahu will likely make a lot of social concessions, but keep the current status quo when it comes to foreign affairs.

[they don't love you like i love you]

How long before Kadima dies?

[danny]

It's looking like JH will gain a seat and get 12, and RAAM-TAAL will lose one to get 4.

[danny]

How long before Kadima dies?

It may not die at all, it depends on how well Lapid performs, and if Olmert returns for the next elections.

[minionofmidas]

So Kadima lost all its votes in the volatile delusional centre and hung on on the strength of some very insular communities.

[danny]

Final turnout was 67.79%, up 2.5% overall and 3% amongst Arabs.


3,834,136 total votes cast, 41K spoiled votes and 270K for parties below the minimum threshold of 75,864, compared with just 104K in 2009.

[minionofmidas]

It's looking like JH will gain a seat and get 12, and RAAM-TAAL will lose one to get 4.

Did this turn out accurate?

[Peter the Lefty]

How long before Kadima dies?

Hopefully not too many years now.  Another question we might soon be asking would be how long until Yesh Atid dies?

[Likely Voter]

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

[minionofmidas]

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

You find that strange? You haven't been paying much attention.

[danny]

It's looking like JH will gain a seat and get 12, and RAAM-TAAL will lose one to get 4.

Did this turn out accurate?

Yes, Shuly Mualem from JH is in, and Taleb A-Sanaa from RAAM-TAAL is out.

[danny]

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

[Likely Voter]

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

I get why they wouldn't want to join with Likud. But why was it a given that they wouldn't join a center left government led by Lapid? Are their views any more extreme than some of the ultra right parties?

The Jewish Home Party is being talked about as a potential coalition partner with Likud even though they advocate annexing most of the West Bank and expelling the resident Palestinians...that seems pretty extreme.

From an ignorant outsider point of view it just seems odd. Is it at all controversial within Israel?

[Benj]

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

None of the Jewish politicians would stop to give the Arab politicians the time of day, or vice versa. You can hardly expect them to work together.