Israeli General Election 2013
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #425 on: January 24, 2013, 04:22:22 PM »

The issue is that they aren't Zionist parties. Which is why no government would ever offer them cabinet posts and why they would never accept them if offered. Some things really are that basic.

Of course they aren't really any kind of united block anyway; UAL is conservative and Islamist, Hadash are commies, Balad are a Syrian fifth column (or close enough to one that you can say that without risking much absurdity).
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« Reply #426 on: January 24, 2013, 04:24:09 PM »

Yeah, ultimately whatever their views are on other issues (fairly extreme, btw) being non-Zionist (i.e. opposing Israel's existence as a Jewish state) is a non-starter.
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danny
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« Reply #427 on: January 24, 2013, 04:27:48 PM »

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

I get why they wouldn't want to join with Likud. But why was it a given that they wouldn't join a center left government led by Lapid? Are their views any more extreme than some of the ultra right parties?

The Jewish Home Party is being talked about as a potential coalition partner with Likud even though they advocate annexing most of the West Bank and expelling the resident Palestinians...that seems pretty extreme.

From an ignorant outsider point of view it just seems odd. Is it at all controversial within Israel?

JH might want to annex some land, but they have no problem joining a government which won't do this. The Arab parties wouldn't spend a day in a government that controls the West Bank. If there was an Arab party that said that they will leave the Palestinian issue to the government and that what they care about is more funds for Arab Israelis, they would probably find themselves in the government.
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hawkeye59
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« Reply #428 on: January 24, 2013, 04:47:51 PM »

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

I get why they wouldn't want to join with Likud. But why was it a given that they wouldn't join a center left government led by Lapid? Are their views any more extreme than some of the ultra right parties?

The Jewish Home Party is being talked about as a potential coalition partner with Likud even though they advocate annexing most of the West Bank and expelling the resident Palestinians...that seems pretty extreme.

From an ignorant outsider point of view it just seems odd. Is it at all controversial within Israel?

JH might want to annex some land, but they have no problem joining a government which won't do this. The Arab parties wouldn't spend a day in a government that controls the West Bank. If there was an Arab party that said that they will leave the Palestinian issue to the government and that what they care about is more funds for Arab Israelis, they would probably find themselves in the government.
Of course, that sort of party would get about 5 votes nationwide.
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drj101
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« Reply #429 on: January 24, 2013, 06:41:51 PM »
« Edited: January 24, 2013, 06:44:56 PM by drj101 »

Looking at the votes in the West Bank settlements, most voted for Likud Beitenu or JH, as you might expect, but there were some interesting exceptions. For example

Niran:

90% Labor (I think that's the best for Labor anywhere in Israel)
4% Hadash
2% Social Justice Huh
2% Meretz
2% Yesh Atid


or on the fascist"other" side of the spectrum, Yitzhar, a...um..."controversial" settlement:

72% Otzma LeYisrael
17% JH
5% Likud Beitenu
3% Shas
2% UTJ
1% Koah LeHashpi'a


The most hilarious thing to me is that Ale Yarok (the marijuana legalization party) had some of it's best areas in the settlements. I guess life out there is stressful, I don't blame people for turning to pot Tongue

Masua:
47% Likud Beitenu
23% JH
9% Yesh Atid
7% Labor
6% Ale Yarok
3% HaTnuah
2% Koah LeHashpi'a
2% Kadima

Ma'ale Efrayim:
30% Likud Beitenu
17% JH
11% Labor
7% HaTnuah
7% Yesh Atid
6% Otzma LeYisrael
5% Ale Yarok
4% Shas
3% Eretz Hadasha
2% Kadima
2% UTJ
2% Meretz
1% Am Shalem
(A bunch of minor parties that don't even have English wiki pages at 1% below this)


Actually, I think that Ale Yarok would have passed the threshold among settlement voters only Tongue
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danny
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« Reply #430 on: January 24, 2013, 07:15:28 PM »
« Edited: January 24, 2013, 07:25:40 PM by danny »

I don't know about the settlements, but I do know that amongst the double envelope votes mostly soldiers), Ale Yarok got 4%. They also get a high percent in certain specific rural places, like kadita for example where they got 18%.
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Velasco
andi
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« Reply #431 on: January 24, 2013, 07:34:39 PM »

It's interesting the dabate about the Arab Israeli citizens. The other day I read this article in The Guardian by Rachel Sabi about the griefs of what in Israel is called the left. Sabi argues that the center-left in Israel is elitist, myopic and Eurocentric and that these faults have contributed to the rise of the hardcore nationalist right.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/21/left-israel-own-worst-enemy?intcmp=239
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This quote from a Mizrahi is interesting:

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The author says that Likud exploited the discrimination towards the Mizrahi population in the late 70's to win a landslide victory with Menachem Begin, also criticizes the attitude of Ehud Barak after the failure of the peace talks at Camp David in 1999.  Regarding the Arabs says:

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The conclusion is quite pessimistic:

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #432 on: January 24, 2013, 07:56:52 PM »

Results for the ten largest cities:

Jerusalem - UTJ 22%, L-B 21%, Shas 16%, HH 12%, YA 7%, Labor 7%, Meretz 4%, OL 3%
Tel Aviv - YA 21%, L-B 18%, Labor 17%, Meretz 14%, H 7%, Shas 6%, HH 4%
Haifa - L-B 26%, YA 18%, Labor 15%, H 7%, HH 6%, Meretz 5%, Hadash 5%, Shas 3%, UTJ 5%
Rishon LeZion - L-B 31%, YA 23%, Labor 14%, H 7%, HH 7%, Shas 5%, Kadima 3%
Petah Tikvah - L-B 29%, YA 18%, HH 13%, Labor 11%, Shas 7%, H 5%, UTJ 4%
Ashdod - L-B 36%, Shas 17%, UTJ 10%, YA 10%, HH 7%, Labor 6%, H 4%
Beersheba - L-B 38%, Shas 13%, HH 12%, YA 11%, Labor 8%, H 5%
Holon - L-B 31%, YA 20%, Labor 13%, Shas 11%, H 6%, HH 6%, Kadima 3%, Meretz 3%
Netanya - L-B 34%, YA 16%, Shas 11%, HH 11%, Labor 9% H 4%, UTJ 3%
Bnei Brak - UTJ 60%, Shas 25%, L-B 4%, HH 4%

Probably a load of errors there, but, you know.
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Torie
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« Reply #433 on: January 24, 2013, 10:48:30 PM »

Are there any polls or other data as to what percentage of Israeli Arabs vote for non Arab parties?  Just curious if there are any cracks in the ethnic/religious curtain.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #434 on: January 25, 2013, 03:24:28 AM »

Big surprise. Apparently Netanyahu is now trying to negotiate a coalition WITHOUT JEWISH HOME.

Likud/Yesh Atid/Shas would have exactly 61 seats.

Such a narrow government is simply not realistic though. It would seriously last less than a year before Yesh Atid inevitably splinters or some Likud backbencher tries to bring down the government for not being right-wing enough.

Bibi would like to pad out those numbers with Labor but for the moment they're standing firm on remaining in the opposition. Of course, that was the line they took after the last election as well.

I could see Labor cracking if Bibi convinces them he really does want to re-start peace talks but at that point, he has to really worry about being toppled as party leader.

Kadima seems like a potentially less offensive partner to rank and file Likudniks.

Still, that's only 63 seats.

I'm going to go ahead and keep my prediction that this ends up being Likud/Yesh Atid/Jewish Home/Shas.
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danny
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« Reply #435 on: January 25, 2013, 04:09:07 AM »

I don't pay too much attention to these reports as they are full of political spins.
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danny
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« Reply #436 on: January 25, 2013, 04:14:37 AM »

My polling place:

Jewish Home: 20.3%
Likud: 19%
UTJ: 13.3%
Labour: 10.9%
Shas: 9.1%
Yes Atid: 8.3%
Meretz: 5.2%
Am Shalem: 2.9%
Kadima: 2.1%

Same place in 2009:

Likud: 24.5%
Kadima: 16.3%
Labour: 13.2%
National Union: 10.7%
Jewish Home: 8.7%
Meretz: 5.6%
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.1%
Shas: 4.8%
UTJ: 3.9%
Green Movement: 2%
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Hnv1
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« Reply #437 on: January 25, 2013, 05:32:40 AM »

Hey Danny, I had some hard accident last week so using my hands is a bit hard (this is why I made my lovely sister type this). Can you post a tel aviv only map divided to districts?
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danny
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« Reply #438 on: January 25, 2013, 06:09:36 AM »

Hey Danny, I had some hard accident last week so using my hands is a bit hard (this is why I made my lovely sister type this). Can you post a tel aviv only map divided to districts?

Hope you get better.

As for a map, just zoom in to this one.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #439 on: January 25, 2013, 07:28:57 AM »

"A couple of months ago I was sipping lemonade on a Herzliya rooftop with a senior Israeli politician who offered me to join the “Center Party”. There was something about that idea. See, journalists dream about politics the way 16 year-olds dream about sex. After two hours of conversation there was one thing I just couldn’t understand: the center of what? That aforementioned centrist party is really just a codename for a group of people unwilling to take responsibility. It will be the Vague Party with a bunch of wily characters. Under the title “Center” they can run in the elections without committing to anything."

- Yair Lapid

16 October 1998

http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/122373/yesh-atid-is-the-new-kadima

Lulz.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #440 on: January 25, 2013, 08:32:33 AM »

Well, he sure knows what he's doing, then.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #441 on: January 25, 2013, 11:58:15 AM »

Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. Grin ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)
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danny
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« Reply #442 on: January 25, 2013, 02:01:23 PM »

Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. Grin ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)


Here are the actual double envelope results.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #443 on: January 25, 2013, 02:02:51 PM »

Just started on some maps.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #444 on: January 25, 2013, 02:17:08 PM »

Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. Grin ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)


Here are the actual double envelope results.
There must have been some precinct or two missing from the first set of data I took down, then, as the raw numbers are marginally higher for all parties. SmileyBy sub-district? Since those (as percentages only if I saw correctly) were in that one map link?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #445 on: January 25, 2013, 02:20:40 PM »

By sub-district? Since those (as percentages only if I saw correctly) were in that one map link?

That's right. Just finished a very pretty outline map.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #446 on: January 25, 2013, 09:16:52 PM »

Are there any polls or other data as to what percentage of Israeli Arabs vote for non Arab parties?  Just curious if there are any cracks in the ethnic/religious curtain.

"Interestingly enough, some 21% of the Arab vote went to Jewish/Zionist parties, with more voting for the Likud and Shas (8%), than for Meretz and Labor (6.8%). Another 2.6% of the Arab vote went to Kadima."

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=300910

Unsure if those numbers are counting Druze as Arab though.
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Hash
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« Reply #447 on: January 25, 2013, 09:21:01 PM »

Are there any polls or other data as to what percentage of Israeli Arabs vote for non Arab parties?  Just curious if there are any cracks in the ethnic/religious curtain.
Unsure if those numbers are counting Druze as Arab though.

They almost certainly are, the results in almost all the big Arab towns all show that the Jewish parties barely got 10% together (outside Kfar Qasim, where Meretz got 35% but only because its new Arab MK is from there).

OTOH, the results in the Druze areas were mixed/all over the place; Likud, Kadima, Shas did well.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #448 on: January 25, 2013, 09:39:26 PM »

Largely for my own amusement, and because I could because I had taken down the preliminary figures, I calculated the parties' percentages of the "envelope vote" (I'm sure I could have found this somewhere, too. Grin ) Oh yeah, because I hadn't taken down the others' preliminary raw vote - only their combined percentage, 6.99% - these numbers are technically estimated but the rounding errors shouldn't exceed a point here or there.

Likud 24.79% (vs 23.19 day for a total of 23.32)
Lapid 16.71 (14.19, 14.32)
Bennett 15.24 (8.76, 9.12)
Labour 10.57 (11.45, 11.39)
Shas 7.39 (8.83, 8.75)
Livni 4.37 (5.02, 4.99)
Meretz 3.89 (4.59, 4.54)
UTJ 2.88 (5.31, 5.17)
Kadima 2.24 (2.09, 2.10)
UAL 1.20 (3.80, 3.65)
Hadash 0.91 (3.12, 3.00)
Balad 0.76 (2.66, 2.56)
other 9.04 (6.99, 7.10)


Here are the actual double envelope results.

I'm shocked Balad got .66% of those votes. Trollin'?
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #449 on: January 25, 2013, 09:52:24 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2013, 09:53:56 PM by WillipsBrighton »

Something I dont understand after reading about Israeli politics, why is it a given that Arab parties would not be invited into a coalition? With 20% of Israeli citizens being Arab it seems strange. No surprise Arab turnout is low.

The Arab parties wouldn't want to join the government, and the government doesn't want them. All the Arab parties have irreconcilably different views that would make it impossible to work together with any government.

I get why they wouldn't want to join with Likud. But why was it a given that they wouldn't join a center left government led by Lapid? Are their views any more extreme than some of the ultra right parties?

The Jewish Home Party is being talked about as a potential coalition partner with Likud even though they advocate annexing most of the West Bank and expelling the resident Palestinians...that seems pretty extreme.

From an ignorant outsider point of view it just seems odd. Is it at all controversial within Israel?

The media didn't discount Arab parties taking part in a coalition. In fact, they did just the opposite. They hyped up the possibility of the Arabs supporting an anti-Netanyahu coalition from the outside. All that ridiculous 60-60 tie talk.

Of course, Lapid shot that all down when he said he supported Netanyahu and that he wouldn't join a government backed by Haneen Zoabi, the Balad member most hated by Jews.

In the past though, Arabs have propped up left-wing governments. Rabin's government famously received non-coalition support from Arab parties.

Back in Rabin's day, however, Arab parties were a lot more moderate. That was before Balad existed, before the Islamic Movement organized as United Arab List, before Ahmed Tibi formed Ta'al.

Back then the only two Arab parties with seats were Hadash and the Arab Democratic Party*, which was actually founded by a former Labor MK.

Hadash could hypothetically still be used to buffer a left-wing minority government in the future. They're the only ones though. UAL and Balad are too radical. Mainstream Zionist politicians wouldn't want the bad PR of being connected to them (as demonstrated by Lapid's comments) and a lot of them themselves are on record as saying Labor and Livni are just as bad as Likud and all fascists.

*The Arab Democratic Party is now part of United Arab List. They have have grown much more radical and there's no chance they would break away to back a left-wing government. It's a moot point though now because their only MK, Taleb el-Sana (number 5 on the UAL list) just lost his seat.
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