Israeli General Election 2013
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Author Topic: Israeli General Election 2013  (Read 70947 times)
Hnv1
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« Reply #475 on: February 06, 2013, 12:52:55 PM »

Can you create maps for city wards of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa?
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #476 on: February 06, 2013, 03:28:18 PM »

and Nazareth while you're at it.

Please.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #477 on: February 06, 2013, 06:34:34 PM »

Yeah, I'll be doing some more at some point.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #478 on: February 16, 2013, 11:52:44 PM »

Bibi exploring a centrist coalition with Livni and Yechimovich? Giving up the premiership seems quite implausible & unnecessary though.

http://bibireport.blogspot.ca/2013/02/netanyahu-exploring-unity-govt-without.html
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #479 on: February 17, 2013, 01:00:30 AM »

That's about the 12th different hypothetical configuration that's been speculated on since the election.

As with the previous 10 possibilities, none of this talk is serious.

It's all just Likud trying to scare Yesh Atid into joining the government.

Likud-Yesh-JH-Shas is still by far the most likely scenario.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #480 on: February 17, 2013, 07:18:48 AM »

Bibi sucks at the whole elections thing, but dealing with the inevitable post-election mess is one thing he is pretty good at.
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #481 on: February 19, 2013, 11:30:04 AM »

The Times of Israel is reporting Livni will have a press conference tonight announcing her party is joining the government.

She will be Justice Minister and Peretz will be Environment Minister.

Of course, "big Tzipi Livni announcement planned tonight" usually means "underwhelming Tzipi Livni announcement a month from now."
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #482 on: February 19, 2013, 08:59:17 PM »

Deal went through.

This is insane.
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danny
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« Reply #483 on: February 19, 2013, 09:07:37 PM »


Why?

Everyone was expecting her to join the government for a while now.
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #484 on: February 19, 2013, 09:18:38 PM »

I'd seen it reported but I didn't believe it. It just makes no ideological sense.

Where does Netanyahu go from now? Likud-Shas-UTJ-Livni is still short of a majority.

Labor?

So he gives Livni control over diplomatic issues and Yacimovich control over economic ones. What's left for Likud?

The only thing he'll be strongly conservative on is continued coddling of the ultra-Orthodox and that's unpopular with the public at large and helps Shas much more than it helps Likud.

He'd better hope he magically creates peace, otherwise how is he going to survive as Likud leader? How will Likud survive the next election?
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ag
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« Reply #485 on: February 19, 2013, 09:29:42 PM »

Considering that "peace" is a dirty word for his electorate, "magically creating peace" would be more than magic - it would be political suicide.
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ag
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« Reply #486 on: February 19, 2013, 09:31:33 PM »

On the other hand, let's not forget that Livni was born into Likud - it's not such a big ideological leap.
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #487 on: February 19, 2013, 09:35:55 PM »

Remember that Peretz left Labor because they wouldn't come out categorically against joining Netanyahu while Livni would.
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danny
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« Reply #488 on: February 19, 2013, 10:03:05 PM »

Remember that Peretz left Labor because they wouldn't come out categorically against joining Netanyahu while Livni would.

That always a personal problem with Shelly rather than an ideological one.
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danny
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« Reply #489 on: February 19, 2013, 10:13:32 PM »

I'd seen it reported but I didn't believe it. It just makes no ideological sense.

Israeli governments rarely do.


Where does Netanyahu go from now? Likud-Shas-UTJ-Livni is still short of a majority.

Labor?

So he gives Livni control over diplomatic issues and Yacimovich control over economic ones. What's left for Likud?
He's still going to need Yesh Atid and Jewish Home.

The only thing he'll be strongly conservative on is continued coddling of the ultra-Orthodox and that's unpopular with the public at large and helps Shas much more than it helps Likud.

He'd better hope he magically creates peace, otherwise how is he going to survive as Likud leader? How will Likud survive the next election?

Quite the opposite, He better hope Livni can't magically create peace, if she does this could cause him some trouble.
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ag
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« Reply #490 on: February 20, 2013, 02:04:07 AM »


Quite the opposite, He better hope Livni can't magically create peace, if she does this could cause him some trouble.

That would be easy to achieve.  Even if somehow she winds up in charge of some negotiations (not likely in the first place), a determined boss doesn't have to do much to ensure that the subordinate fails miserably (it would be enough to intimate to the other side, in private, that Livni is not authorized to represent anyone, but herself - and doing it without providing anyone with the smoking gun isn't hard either). Push comes to shove, a "targeted" bombing of somebody somewhere, or a few new houses on the territories, will do the trick admirably.0

In any case. That Netaniyahu would rather hang himself (and so would most of his voters), than conclude a peace agreement, is too much of a common knowledge.  Livni can't be such an idiot to even try. If she goes into this government, it is not to do miracles.
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danny
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« Reply #491 on: February 20, 2013, 11:24:23 AM »


Quite the opposite, He better hope Livni can't magically create peace, if she does this could cause him some trouble.

That would be easy to achieve.  Even if somehow she winds up in charge of some negotiations (not likely in the first place), a determined boss doesn't have to do much to ensure that the subordinate fails miserably (it would be enough to intimate to the other side, in private, that Livni is not authorized to represent anyone, but herself - and doing it without providing anyone with the smoking gun isn't hard either). Push comes to shove, a "targeted" bombing of somebody somewhere, or a few new houses on the territories, will do the trick admirably.0

In any case. That Netaniyahu would rather hang himself (and so would most of his voters), than conclude a peace agreement, is too much of a common knowledge.  Livni can't be such an idiot to even try. If she goes into this government, it is not to do miracles.

Livni being in charge of negotiations was part of the agreement. And I think Bibi would personally like to reach an agreement, but doing so would require pulling a "Sharon", which I don't think he would be willing to do.
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ag
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« Reply #492 on: February 20, 2013, 02:29:40 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2013, 02:31:14 PM by ag »


Livni being in charge of negotiations was part of the agreement.

Yeah, missed that. Unless this is done purely for the purpose of calming down her supporters with a fake effort, she IS an idiot.

As for Netaniyahu wanting an agreement... I don't know. May be, now, that his father is no longer around, it might be different.  Up until now, judging by his entire political career, it would seem that an agreement is what he abhors and fears most (perhaps, what he did fear most was having to justify it to Daddy). Unless, of course, that "agreement" ammounts to an unconditional capitulation by the other side.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #493 on: March 01, 2013, 08:17:55 AM »

Bits by Bits I'll bring more election stats.

Voting in Hashomer Hatzair Kibbutz. HH is the second Kibbuz movement with the Takam, and the more left wing one traditionally support Mapam, which nowadays is a part from Meretz.

Meretz - 36.25%
Labour - 29.05%
Lapid - 14.52%
Livni - 6.81%
Likud - 4.37%
Eretz Hadasha- 1.94%
Habit BaYehudi - 1.84%
Green Leaf - 1.26%
Kadima - 1.17%
Hadash - 0.70%
Am Shalem -0.55%
Others - 1.48%

Interesting trends, Meretz figure dropped a bit (compared to 2006) but general figures for centre-left parties grows stronger.   
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #494 on: March 01, 2013, 09:04:33 AM »

I don't know if it's been brought up before, but the only Kibbutznik currently in the Knesset is a member of Jewish Home, a former Gaza settler named Zvulun Kalfa.



Oh, also, the formal deadline to negotiate a government passed. It's been extended 2 weeks though. It looked like there was going to be a Shas-less government announced at the 11th hour but Netanyahu opted out at the 11th hour and 59th minute.
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #495 on: March 03, 2013, 03:10:22 PM »

Weren't Likud and Yisrael Beytenu supposed to vote on a formal merger a month after the election? Did that ever happen? I didn't see any coverage.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #496 on: March 13, 2013, 04:41:46 AM »

Weren't Likud and Yisrael Beytenu supposed to vote on a formal merger a month after the election? Did that ever happen? I didn't see any coverage.
After the government is formed it will addressed.

Interesting stuff coming from the new coalition, they want to pass the entry bar in elections for 4% what would force the Arab parties to unite (or maybe even erase Hadash completely), and may cause a bit of havoc.
I woke up with 5 SMSs from people asking me if Meretz will unite with Labour
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #497 on: March 13, 2013, 09:22:32 AM »

You work for Meretz?

Also, surely they would have to add an exception for minority parties...it would just be terrible PR.
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danny
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« Reply #498 on: March 13, 2013, 09:24:40 AM »

You work for Meretz?

Also, surely they would have to add an exception for minority parties...it would just be terrible PR.

They wouldn't add an exception, this would just force the Arab parties to merge.
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #499 on: March 13, 2013, 05:01:39 PM »

I think it's official now. We have a government. Likud-Yesh Atid-Jewish Home-Livni.

Lieberman stays at foreign affairs. Lapid gets finance and Yesh also takes education. Bennett gets trade and the National Union likely gets housing.

I predict this government drafts the ultra Orthodox, takes away some of their benefits, then falls in less than a year. After that Netanyahu will form a new government with Shas instead of Yesh.
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