Israeli General Election 2013

[danny]

Interesting how the Israeli definition of a "snap election" means and election five months from now! In Canada a snap election means I call the election today and we vote in five weeks not five months!

It's won't be 5 months, it will be about 3 months. And governments never last their full term, so this is just the normal way to have elections.

[danny]

So, what does election timing tell us about Israeli plans vis-a-vis Iran? Little to nothing? Or does this mean Bibi wants to have a clear mandate and his hands freed by February/March?

This, Bibi doesn't an election to attack Iran.

[danny]

Who is the frontrunner?

Bibi, he has been ahead in every poll for over a year, See this thread for the details.

[danny]

The date has officially been set for January 22.

before that we will have primaries for the party lists in the Likud (25/11/12), Labour and the Jewish Home (13/11/12) (and maybe others).

The Jewish Home is also having leadership primaries on the 6/11/12 with a possible second round on the 13/11/12.

[danny]

The posts about polling should be moved here, now that the elections are on (or the threads merged).

Yeah, I will do that from now on.

[danny]

I'll start posting polls here then, starting with Mako:

Likud: 28
Labour: 21
Yesh Atid: 19
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Shas: 8
UTJ: 5
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2

[danny]

and now Globes:

Likud: 25
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Yesh Atid: 14
Shas (headed by Deri): 13
UTJ: 6
Jewish Home: 5
National Union: 4
Meretz: 4
Hadash: 4
Kadima: 3
Independence: 2
RAAM-TAAL + Balad: 7 (their choice to combine the results).

[danny]

Aryeh Deri is returning to Shas, and the party now won't have any leader, to keep everyone happy.

Also the Jewish Home and the National Union have reached an agreement to run together in the coming elections.

[danny]

Aryeh Deri is returning to Shas, and the party now won't have any leader, to keep everyone happy.

Who'll be first on the list?

It isn't clear yet, but it isn't important as long as there is an agreement on the delegation of powers.

Also the Jewish Home and the National Union have reached an agreement to run together in the coming elections.

Didn't an agreement to do this in '09 fall apart? (Although, it worked out in '06...)

The 2009 agreement was to merge the National Union and Mafdal into one party called The Jewish Home. The problem was that the Mafdal people took over the party so that they will have all the power in the united party. When the National Union people realized what was happening, they left to re-form their own party. The current agreement doesn't merge the parties but merely agrees to combine the lists.

[danny]

Who is the frontrunner?

Sadly, bibi, but not due to 'overwhelming' popularity (a popular PM would stand on 40 mandates now) but more due to the lack of an opponent. Labour is headed by shelly which hardly aspires for the prime ministry (and is seen as unexperienced by the public). The central block is divided by 4: Mofaz with kadima - no political future for him or the party; Yair Lapid - more hair jell then actual agenda typical Israeli protest vote; Livni - unsure where to land; and Olmart convictted and tainted in the eyes of many

This sadly is going to be a victory by Likud more due to the religious population hard swing toward hawkishness and the demographic battle the centre-left block is losing.
I personally am an active meretz member and expect us to double our power to 6 mandates and remain insignificant

Welcome to the forum, it's nice to have another Israeli poster, even though we probably won't agree on much (I'm a Likud supporter).

[danny]

I don't think Shas and UTJ will have much trouble joining a coalition with headed by the left, just like they sat with Olmert not long ago, even if it isn't their first choice.

[danny]

Big news today with Likud and Yisrael Beitenu agreeing to run on a joint list.

Also Kadima is continuing to collapse with mk's leaving the party left and right.

[danny]

This also makes my choice easy in this election, as I was undecided between Likud and YB.

[danny]

Lapid is certainly making a play for Russian voters, he is going to make a speech in Ariel, a settlement with a large Russian population, saying that Ariel (and other settlement blocs) will remain part of Israel, and insisting that he isn't left or centre-left. This makes a lot of sense as Shinui had a lot of Russian voters.

[danny]

Of the Kadima ex-Soviets, Shamalova-Berkovich joined Likud and Abesadze goes to Avoda.

Aryeh Bibi has joined Likud as well, and so has Tzachi Hanegbi (and Dichter has apparently made it official) too...only Abesadze has gone to Labor so far, no one to Yesh Atid...

Lapid said that he wouldn't have any current mk's in his party.

BTW, regarding Shamalov-Berkovic, while I don't particularly like her, I do enjoy the irony of having her getting into the Knesset on a spot reserved for women (which are supported by feminist groups), then proceeding to be an outspoken anti-feminist. She made a speech in front of a men's rights group and said that men are discriminated against.

[danny]

Are the non-Russians aware of internal splits withing the ex-Soviet comminty, or is it viewed, generally, as homogenous?

They know that they have different opinions and vote for different parties. But about there being a difference based on what part of the USSR they come from, no.

[danny]

Nachman Shai has also left kadima for Labour, I wonder how many of these Kadima refugees actually manage to be elected again.

[danny]

the recent news has brought on an expected flood of polls.

Starting with channel 2:

Likud Beitenu: 42
Labour: 23
Shas: 13
Yesh Atid: 9
Meretz: 6
UTJ: 5
Jewish Home-NU: 5
Independence: 3
Kadima: 3
"Arab Parties": 10

[danny]

Ma'ariv::

Likud Beitenu: 43
Labour: 20
Yesh Atid: 15
Shas:10
JH-NU: 8
UTJ: 6
Kadima: 4
Hadash: 4
Meretz: 3
UAL+Balad: 7

[danny]

Channel 10:

Likud Beitenu: 35
Labour: 23
Shas:14
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 9
UTJ: 6
Kadima: 5
Hadash: 4
Meretz: 4
UAL+Balad: 7

[danny]

So when will various party lists be determined? And publicized?

6/12/12 is the deadline, but parties may publicize the lists earlier, especially if they they have primaries.

[danny]

After a week filled with silly polls with non-existent parties, here is a new one:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 23
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Hadash: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the threshold.

[danny]

Yesterday was the leadership election for the Jewish Home, in which Naftali Bennet (23,645 votes) beat Zevulun Orlev (11,501 votes) handily

All the remaining primaries are for the list and not the leader.

remaining election dates:

November 11: Meretz primaries
November 13: Jewish Home primaries
November 25: Likud primaries
November 29: Labour primaries
December 5: Yisrael Beitenu publishes list thus completing the Likud Beitenu list.
December 6: Last day to submit the candidate lists
January 22: general election

[danny]

After a week filled with silly polls with non-existent parties, here is a new one:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 23
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 13
Shas: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Hadash: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the threshold.

Was this after the US election? There's been some noise in the US media about Netanyahu being seen as having made a big mistake in repeatedly insulting Obama and that it is hurting him now that Obama has been relected, but it's not clear to me whether this is actually important in Israel or just something the US media has picked up on.

It was after, but I don't think it had much effect, most Israelis supported Romney so I don't think they will much problem with Bibi doing the same. more important than that seems to be the election in the Jewish Home.

[danny]

With all the leadership primaries done, they can be tallied up.

Number of total voters in the primaries:

Likud: 63,150
Labour: 43,911 first round, 41,079 second round
Kadima: 38503
Jewish Home: 35,225

By candidate:

Netanyahu (Likud): 48490
Mofaz (Kadima): 23,987
Bennet (Jewish Home): 23,645
Yechimovich (labour): 22,257 (first round: 14,203)
Peretz (Labour): 18,822 (first round: 13,616)
Feiglin (Likud): 14,660
Livni (Kadima): 14,516
Orlev (Jewish Home): 11,501
Hertzog (Labour): 10,848 (first round only)
Mitzna (Labour): 5,244 (first round only)
Cohen (Jewish Home): 79