VA: Marist College: Romney takes one-point lead

[RI]

New Poll: Virginia President by Marist College on 2012-10-10

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[J. J.]

And it's still a crappy poll.

[Devils30]

Its sort of odd that Obama doing 7 points worse in VA than OH (won VA by more in 2008). PPP has been very consistent here with the Obama lead so it will be curious what happens on election night. Problem: too many indies in this poll, VA is not like NH in terms of an elastic state. Cant say who would be winning but would be nice to see the racial breakdown.

[Reds4]

Agree with this.. Independents were 27% in 2008... no way they are 40% now.

Its sort of odd that Obama doing 7 points worse in VA than OH (won VA by more in 2008). PPP has been very consistent here with the Obama lead so it will be curious what happens on election night. Problem: too many indies in this poll, VA is not like NH in terms of an elastic state. Cant say who would be winning but would be nice to see the racial breakdown.

[Lief 🗽]

Interesting that twelve swing state polls were released today, Obama led in 10, tied in one, and was only behind in this one.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/151943/record-high-americans-identify-independents.aspx

I think the reality is the fewer people nationally are identifying with either party... which is making ID weighting a little more tricky this year.

[Eraserhead]

Good news for Romney, I suppose. This is a state he has to win.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Haven't independents been surging in registration numbers for the past several years?

[pa2011]

Quinnipiac is supposedly releasing a Virginia poll at 7 a.m. (along with Colorado and Wisconsin). Will be interesting to see what they show for Virignia. The last Quinnipiac Virginia poll from mid September had Obama up 4, 50 to 46... So Romney could easily be ahead there now. If he's not, could be a bad sign for him.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Haven't independents been surging in registration numbers for the past several years?

Look at my post above... Independent self-ID (not registration) has spiked in the last 2-3 years... much of it coming from disaffected GOPers...

[Skill and Chance]

Its sort of odd that Obama doing 7 points worse in VA than OH (won VA by more in 2008). PPP has been very consistent here with the Obama lead so it will be curious what happens on election night. Problem: too many indies in this poll, VA is not like NH in terms of an elastic state. Cant say who would be winning but would be nice to see the racial breakdown.

The thing is, the 100-200K new Virginians are probably all social left balanced budget types.  They are more likely than anyone else to respond to the debate.