OH: Marist College: Obama leads by six

[RI]

New Poll: Ohio President by Marist College on 2012-10-10

Summary: D: 51%, R: 45%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Simfan34]

Eeeugk. This is depressing. Why is Ohio being such an HP state this year?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Eeeugk. This is depressing. Why is Ohio being such an HP state this year?

Considering your nominee and his past....

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Eeeugk. This is depressing. Why is Ohio being such an HP state this year?

Romney specifically is a spectacularly bad fit for it. One of the states where he's not Generic R in a bad way.

[Reds4]

Nobody is going to want to hear this... but this poll's Party ID is Dems 40% GOP 29% for likely voters.. in 2008 it was Dems +8% and in 2004 it was GOP +5%. I don't think this poll is as good for Obama as it looks.. no way this state is more Democratic by 11 points this year.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Eeeugk. This is depressing. Why is Ohio being such an HP state this year?

Romney specifically is a spectacularly bad fit for it. One of the states where he's not Generic R in a bad way.

Makes me wonder how Santorum would be doing here at this point.

[Simfan34]

Nobody is going to want to hear this... but this poll's Party ID is Dems 40% GOP 29% for likely voters.. in 2008 it was Dems +8% and in 2004 it was GOP +5%. I don't think this poll is as good for Obama as it looks.. no way this state is more Democratic by 11 points this year.

Give me a good reason not to agree with him and not cry "junk poll" as a result. Is it adjusted?

[Devils30]

The party ID is likely a bit off but Obama is still likely ahead here. Romney has poor favorables in the midwest and the auto bailout helps Obama here. If OH goes blue along with WI and NV, Romney hits a concrete wall at 267 ev.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nobody is going to want to hear this... but this poll's Party ID is Dems 40% GOP 29% for likely voters.. in 2008 it was Dems +8% and in 2004 it was GOP +5%. I don't think this poll is as good for Obama as it looks.. no way this state is more Democratic by 11 points this year.

Give me a good reason not to agree with him and not cry "junk poll" as a result. Is it adjusted?

I believe there was an issue about ensuring early voters were covered... if you exclude early voters it was 48-46 Obama. But since 20% early voters... there's a strong Obama (therefore D lean)...

[Reds4]

I'm a Republican who supports Mitt Romney, but I'm fair about these polls... you don't see me coming out and crying about joke polls every time Romney is losing. I just know that the state of Ohio is far too divided right now to have anyone winning by much.. I think Obama is leading in the state by a point or so right now (and I'd guess he'll end up squeaking out a win in Ohio)... but this poll showing a 6 point lead with ridiculous party ID splits is nothing too to put any stock in.

[pa2011]

Nobody is going to want to hear this... but this poll's Party ID is Dems 40% GOP 29% for likely voters.. in 2008 it was Dems +8% and in 2004 it was GOP +5%. I don't think this poll is as good for Obama as it looks.. no way this state is more Democratic by 11 points this year.

Not saying it will be D+11, but isn't Ohio one place where the R brand has been pretty damaged due to the governor and some internal things?  Regardless of the specifics of party ID, sort of clear Romney still has work to do there, especially when you consider he may not have many more weeks like this where he's basically been in the drivers seat.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the thing to note is that GOP registration outside of Rasmussen has dropped... there has been a big spike in 'Independent' self-ID. Many of them are actually GOP voters, who no longer self-identify. Part of the reason why Romney is doing so much better among 'Independents' than McCain did...

I think we need to be careful about EVERY poll...

[Eraserhead]

Romney must be wondering what the hell he has to do to win here. lol.

My advice would be to become a completely different person.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Ohio really being awesome for a change this year.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Does anyone here understand that pollsters don't go out and purposely call registered Democrats and Republicans?  Party IDs are reflective of an attitude, not a statistic that pollsters are basing who they call on.  I just don't know how many times this has to be repeated.  

Marist conducted NBC's last round of polls of the 9 swings states.  This shows improvement for Romney of about 2 pts.  This seems about right for a national swing of 3, considering the rough go of it Romney has had in the state since just about the beginning of the campaign.  Some of the most reputable pollsters had Romney down 8 in OH before the debate.  There are few things that are going to swing a state as large as Ohio 8 pts in the course of a week.  

It's a lean Obama state that Mitt needs... Mitt needs a repeat performance in Debate part deux.  He was admittedly excellent in execution in the first one.  

[Reds4]

Yes, I agree with this statement. I'm a Republican and I don't like what Kasich has done in the state. The GOP brand isn't strong here. It's a delicate balance though. Obama isn't popular here, so there is an opening for Romney.. but Romney isn't as popular here as several other swing states it seems. This poll is way off.. but Romney still has work to do.

Not saying it will be D+11, but isn't Ohio one place where the R brand has been pretty damaged due to the governor and some internal things?  Regardless of the specifics of party ID, sort of clear Romney still has work to do there, especially when you consider he may not have many more weeks like this where he's basically been in the drivers seat.
[/quote]

[JFK-Democrat]

I like the results of this poll, but us Democrats always seem to win the battle and lose the war. Jon Husted is busy trying to STEAL OHIO for Romney. This poll means squat if democrats are systematically denied the right to cast ballots in Ohio

[dspNY]

Romney's just a really poor cultural fit for Ohio...he could put on a hardhat and jeans and there's still no way he can etch-a-sketch himself into a popular candidate there

Somehow Romney must find a way to win in Ohio or he will lose

[TrapperHawk]

I actually thought that Ohio would be a bit tighter than six points. Glad to say that I'm wrong. Perhaps Ohio will be more Democratic this year than I expected. Looks like ol' Mittens has his work cut out for him in the Buckeye State.

[Lief 🗽]

Explanation for the Dem ID advantage, from the pollsters themselves:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/10/14352371-nbcwsjmarist-poll-romney-gains-in-key-swing-states?lite

[President von Cat]

So can the red avatars breath a collective sight of relief now and stop the shameful nonsense about racist Americans voting for Romney?

[Knives]

What does HP mean?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

'HP' horrible person

[DrScholl]

Reading the article about the poll, it stated that early voting helped push that up party ID for Democrats.

[opebo]

What percentage of the vote in Ohio is typically 'early voting'?