What will and should happen with an electoral college tie? (user search)
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  What will and should happen with an electoral college tie? (search mode)
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Question: What will and should happen with a 269-269 tie in the electoral college?
#1
If Obama wins popular vote, House should AND will select him.
 
#2
If Obama wins popular vote, House SHOULD and WILL NOT select him
 
#3
If Obama wins popular vote, House SHOULD NOT but WILL select him
 
#4
If Obama wins popular vote, House SHOULD NOT and WILL NOT select him
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: What will and should happen with an electoral college tie?  (Read 2158 times)
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« on: October 11, 2012, 01:01:48 PM »
« edited: October 11, 2012, 01:04:03 PM by Erc »

Assuming that the vote is strictly party-line, how would this end up looking?

Using Larry Sabato's ratings for House races (probably not the best, but the most amenable for a quick analysis of this sort of thing as he actually lists the safe districts):

Romney appears to have 24 states in the bag already, to Obama's 11:



Some of these "tossups" lean heavily in one direction, however.  Kristi Noem (SD-AL) won narrowly over Herseth-Sandlin last time around, but is not facing her again and has the advantage of incumbency; other sites list Noem as safe.  If we give SD to Romney, that puts him at 25 states, one state away from victory.  North Dakota's and Montana's current Congressmen are both retiring to run for Senate, but their seats are likely to remain Republican.  If just one of them remains Republican, Romney has 26 states and the Presidency.

Other possible Romney states from the remaining `tossups' are Michigan (they would need to retain MI-3 and MI-11) and Wisconsin (they would need to retain WI-7 and WI-8), probably followed by New Hampshire (where they would have to win both seats).

All in all, the House is basically Safe Romney assuming no defections.  Considering the only strongly Obama state in the above is Pennsylvania (which Romney doesn't even need should the Republicans hold onto Montana and the Dakotas), such a possibility seems remote.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2012, 01:38:52 PM »

Partially-related and extremely far-fetched Constitutional question:

What if there is no majority in the Electoral College for either President or Vice-President, and a single person happens to be eligible for election by the Senate to the Vice-Presidency and by the House to the Presidency?

I'm imagining a rather outlandish scenario where there is a 269-269 tie and one elector decides to go faithless and flips the ticket, voting Ryan/Romney instead of Romney/Ryan.  The Senate then has to decide between Ryan and Biden (the two top-placing candidates), while the House has to decide between Obama, Romney, and Ryan (the three top-placing candidates).  Is there some ludicrous scenario in which Ryan gets elected both Vice-President (by a Republican Senate, say) and President (there is a deadlocked House that somehow finds Ryan preferable to either candidate, or is deadlocked for so long Vice-President elect Ryan serves as Acting President and the House eventually decides to formalize the arrangement by electing him President)?
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