OH-06: Wilson (D) internal now shows him leading by six percent

[Lief 🗽]

http://www3.atr.rollcall.com/ohio-charlie-wilson-responds-with-own-poll-in-6th-district-race/

Wilson 49%
Johnson 43%

Romney 48%
Obama 47%

Wilson's last internal showed him tied. Johnson has recently released a poll showing himself up by eight percent.

[morgieb]

Good!

Though the Pres vote looks a little favourable to the Ds.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, McCain won the district based on its new lines but 53-45. Of course Johnson's poll gives Romney a 14% lead in the district. So this race is probably close to a tie at the moment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

In other words this race is basically a dead-heat.  That's not surprising, I always knew this one would be down-to-the-wire.  Johnson has proved to be a pretty good (but not exceptional) candidate and a strong fundraiser, and he has the benefit of Obama leading the Democratic ticket (I don't think I need to explain why Obama being on the ballot is good for Johnson). 

However, Wilson also has several advantages.  Any benefit Johnson gets from Obama being on the ticket will probably be canceled out by the fact that Romney is a much worse fit for the district than generic R, the area contains a good deal of ancesterally Democratic territory, and Charlie Wilson fits this district like a glove (although no Democrat can replace Ted Strickland, who was beloved in these parts).  Having heard Wilson speak, I can also say that he is a pretty strong campaigner and knows how to deliver strong attacks but coming across as energetic and passionate rather than mean-spirited (either that or he really brought his A-game to the event I heard him at).  Also, there will definitely be a lot of Romney/Wilson votes.  It is really a question of how many there will be rather than whether or not there will be any.     

Ultimately, I think Wilson wins by a hair (I admit that is partly gut feeling).  However, I could very easily see Johnson winning.  I will say that if Johnson wins, as long as the Democrats keep nominating candidates in the mold of Ted Strickland and Charlie Wilson, Johnson will continue to face highly competitive races for the foreseeable future.  That said, the pubs did the best they could've done to protect Johnson (who would definitely be behind if they hadn't removed most of Athens County), but there is only so much they can do here.