NV-Dane & Associates: Romney+3

[Tender Branson]

49-46 Romney

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/romney-leads-obama-in-nevada-based-on-recent-dane--associates-poll-173761381.html

Never heard of this pollster.

I've heard of Dan Jones, which is a UT pollster, but it's not the same.

They don't even seem to have a website (at least I didn't find it).

[NVGonzalez]

No.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

No poll has shown Romney ahead in Nevada in over a year, including President Obama's all time low Fall of 2011.

[tmthforu94]

Based off some of the polls today, you could say this is the map:

Obama wins 271-267, but Iowa, which hasn't had a poll in the last few days, could give Romney over 270 without Ohio.

[Lief 🗽]

Yes, based on the mix of R-leaning and ARG polls from today, you could say that Romney is almost not losing the electoral college. Congratulations!

[Likely Voter]

Their press release touts how they are "highly accurate" because they use the same methodology as Rasmussen. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess this is a GOP pollster, probably doing a poll for Heller

[HagridOfTheDeep]

dominating

[krazen1211]

Great news!

[5280]

We might see the 2004 map again.

[krazen1211]

We might see the 2004 map again.

Under the current EV distribution Bush would have won without Ohio.

[Brittain33]

Based off some of the polls today, you could say this is the map:

Obama wins 271-267, but Iowa, which hasn't had a poll in the last few days, could give Romney over 270 without Ohio.

No cherry picking from today's polls!

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161516.msg0#new

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting take by Jon Ralston (Dean of Nevada political reporters) on why most Nevada polls are garbage.

http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/why-most-polls-done-nevada-are-garbage#.UHimGlHF1wg

FWIW he thinks Obama is up about 6.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Wasn't Obama severely underpolled here in 2008? I remember it being "close" but he ended up winning by a huge margin.

[Minnesota Mike]

Wasn't Obama severely underpolled here in 2008? I remember it being "close" but he ended up winning by a huge margin.

Final RCP average was Obama +6.5%. He won by 12.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html

[NVGonzalez]

Wasn't Obama severely underpolled here in 2008? I remember it being "close" but he ended up winning by a huge margin.

Reid was also supposed to lose by 4 or 5.

[Marokai Backbeat]

What is up with all these weird third and fourth rate polling firms out of nowhere showing strong Romney performances?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Attention ... and because RCP has no standards, they know it'll be included. Plus the RW blogosphere goes as nuts for dodgy polls as the LW one.

[pbrower2a]

What is up with all these weird third and fourth rate polling firms out of nowhere showing strong Romney performances?

It could be that one or more of the following --

1. the Romney/Ryan campaign

2. The Republican Party

3. GOP front groups like Crossroads, FreedomWorks, Americans for Prosperity, and the Club for Growth

is/are commissioning swing-state polls from pollsters whose methodologies strongly favor Romney in an effort to sow despair or destructive anger among Democrats. Consider Pulse, really a subsidiary of Rasmussen; it will poll for anyone for a modest price. I ignore that pollster because the poll is likely bought by a political party or interest group.

Entities like PPP, Quinnipiac, Marist, and Selzer are not coming out with these polls. 

[5280]

What is up with all these weird third and fourth rate polling firms out of nowhere showing strong Romney performances?

1.  We had too many Democrat leaning polling firms in the last several months.
2.  Obama is sucking as a president to people who are not pro Obama
3.  People want somebody fresh to get this country in the right direction.
4.  Joe Biden is an arrogant, pompous liar.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What is up with all these weird third and fourth rate polling firms out of nowhere showing strong Romney performances?

1.  We had too many Democrat leaning polling firms in the last several months.
2.  Obama is sucking as a president to people who are not pro Obama
3.  People want somebody fresh to get this country in the right direction.
4.  Joe Biden is an arrogant, pompous liar.

So you accept they're bad pollsters with an agenda... good.

[5280]

What is up with all these weird third and fourth rate polling firms out of nowhere showing strong Romney performances?

1.  We had too many Democrat leaning polling firms in the last several months.
2.  Obama is sucking as a president to people who are not pro Obama
3.  People want somebody fresh to get this country in the right direction.
4.  Joe Biden is an arrogant, pompous liar.

So you accept they're bad pollsters with an agenda... good.

It's subjective for that matter, however you look at it. It's only bad when you don't agree.

[Sbane]

Lol at the republicans believing this poll.

[nhmagic]

Nevada could turn depending upon whats going on in the other states.  Obama won a lopsided victory in 2008 that isn't even close to the small but still relevant D lean the state now has.  That tells me that Nevada saw Ohio, NH and the eastern states vote for Obama and a bunch of republicans either went home or just voted for Obama as they were in the lines. 

If Romney is winning NH, VA, FL, NC, OH, then I'm guessing states like Colorado and Nevada will move even further his way as the night goes forward.  A lot of this is turnout dependent though.  Romney is Mormon - so we'll see if his ability to get nearly every single Mormon, including the ones hiding in the rocks of Nevada can beat Harry Reids union member/casino worker bussing to the polls.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Nevada could turn depending upon whats going on in the other states.  Obama won a lopsided victory in 2008 that isn't even close to the small but still relevant D lean the state now has.  That tells me that Nevada saw Ohio, NH and the eastern states vote for Obama and a bunch of republicans either went home or just voted for Obama as they were in the lines. 

If Romney is winning NH, VA, FL, NC, OH, then I'm guessing states like Colorado and Nevada will move even further his way as the night goes forward.  A lot of this is turnout dependent though.  Romney is Mormon - so we'll see if his ability to get nearly every single Mormon, including the ones hiding in the rocks of Nevada can beat Harry Reids union member/casino worker bussing to the polls.

I don't understand the Mormon argument. Mormons already vote in muc higher proportions than the normal population and way disproportionately more Republican. It shouldn't have much effect, if at all.

[J. J.]

Lol at the republicans believing this poll.

Well, I think a few of us are asking, "What is Dane's track record."