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Author Topic: Nate makes big move towards Romney  (Read 2977 times)
zorkpolitics
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« on: October 12, 2012, 10:16:55 pm »

At FiveThirtyEight/NY Times, Nate's model now has Romney winning IN, NC, FL, VA, and CO and trailing Obama by only 29 Electoral Votes:   254 vs 283 and trailing by less than 1% in the popular vote 49.1% vs 49.8%.
Obama is ahead because he still is the predicted winner in OH.  So no surprise Romney is all over Ohio this week.
Shades of 2004, the election may hinge on OH
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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2012, 10:34:47 pm »

Shades of 2004, the election may hinge on OH

If we go strictly by 538, OH is superfluous for Romney -- Obama's three most tenuous states are Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio, in that order, and Romney only needs Iowa and Nevada to win. (Actually, send it to the House, but he'll win there).
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I will NOT be accepting any result other than a victory for America's next President, Governor Gary Earl Johnson Angry
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diskymike44
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2012, 10:35:34 pm »

Can we panic now!?!
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2012, 10:37:00 pm »

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! It's over. I can't believe Obama is going to lose to freaking Mitt Romney! WTF?
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2012, 10:41:34 pm »

Can we panic now!?!

At least wait to after the second debate. 
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J. J.

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2012, 10:41:54 pm »

If the race is tied or slight Romney lead then it makes sense for Romney to be ahead in FL, VA, CO. It just took a few days since the debate for enough state polls to feed into nate's model. Romney may be ahead in IA too but there has only been one poll since debate.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2012, 10:43:40 pm »

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! It's over. I can't believe Obama is going to lose to freaking Mitt Romney! WTF?

I KNOW MAN!!! THE HORRORRRRRR!!!! PRESIDENT MITT ROMNEY!!!!!!!!!
RUN FOR THE HILLS DAMNNIT!!!!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2012, 10:47:15 pm »

If the race is tied or slight Romney lead then it makes sense for Romney to be ahead in FL, VA, CO. It just took a few days since the debate for enough state polls to feed into nate's model. Romney may be ahead in IA too but there has only been one poll since debate.

Peoples... find a grip... then get one... this is NOT surprising. Silver projected this would happen earlier in the week if the trackers didn't close up.
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2012, 10:49:44 pm »

Also, can I say how wonderful it is that the right, who has been dismissing Silver all year... now think he's getting things right.
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wan
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2012, 10:53:37 pm »

this is getting crazy it all started because obama 1st debate. We still have 2 more debates
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2012, 10:54:26 pm »

If the race is tied or slight Romney lead then it makes sense for Romney to be ahead in FL, VA, CO. It just took a few days since the debate for enough state polls to feed into nate's model. Romney may be ahead in IA too but there has only been one poll since debate.

Peoples... find a grip... then get one... this is NOT surprising. Silver projected this would happen earlier in the week if the trackers didn't close up.

i'm pretty sure that was the point i was making, or were you agreeing with me?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2012, 10:57:10 pm »

If the race is tied or slight Romney lead then it makes sense for Romney to be ahead in FL, VA, CO. It just took a few days since the debate for enough state polls to feed into nate's model. Romney may be ahead in IA too but there has only been one poll since debate.

Peoples... find a grip... then get one... this is NOT surprising. Silver projected this would happen earlier in the week if the trackers didn't close up.

i'm pretty sure that was the point i was making, or were you agreeing with me?

I am agreeing with you, lol
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2012, 10:57:55 pm »

this is getting crazy it all started because obama 1st debate. We still have 2 more debates

1. Nobody cares about the other two debates. Only the first debate has the biggest effect

2. What makes you think Obama is suddenly going to do better this time around?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2012, 11:53:13 pm »

We don't even know how much of an impact the VP debate had. Take a chill pill. There's still much more of this election to come...
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2012, 12:02:15 am »

I remember reading a quote though I can't remember who it was that said "when conservatives get bad news on polls they want to kill you, when liberals get bad news on polls they want to kill themselves." Chill out everyone. There is a good reason why my prediction has been unchanged since July.
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
Zioneer
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2012, 12:21:17 am »

Also, don't forget that Silver's been putting most if not all of the polls into his tracking method, including the comically useless We Ask America and a few of the more terrible Rasmussen ones. That might be skewing things a bit.
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2012, 01:18:30 am »

Get a grip people, Im sure Obama will come back around roaring and attacking Romney with deceit, spin and interuption like Biden.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2012, 01:19:21 am »

Get a grip people, Im sure Obama will come back around roaring and attacking Romney with deceit, spin and interuption like Biden.

Or you know... explain Romney's positions and inconsistencies perhaps?
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2012, 01:24:59 am »

Get a grip people, Im sure Obama will come back around roaring and attacking Romney with deceit, spin and interuption like Biden.

Or you know... explain Romney's positions and inconsistencies perhaps?

Romney has positions?
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
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polnut
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2012, 01:26:18 am »

Get a grip people, Im sure Obama will come back around roaring and attacking Romney with deceit, spin and interuption like Biden.

Or you know... explain Romney's positions and inconsistencies perhaps?

Romney has positions?

Hundreds
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Franzl
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2012, 04:33:50 am »

Get a grip people, Im sure Obama will come back around roaring and attacking Romney with deceit, spin and interuption like Biden.

Or you know... explain Romney's positions and inconsistencies perhaps?

Romney has positions?

Hundreds

Varying by audience.
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Baconomics 🐖
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2012, 04:43:12 am »

ITT:




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Great Again No More
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2012, 04:51:48 am »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2012, 05:10:10 am »

Can we panic now!?!

At least wait to after the second debate. 

Or the third.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2012, 06:17:02 am »

Get a grip people, Im sure Obama will come back around roaring and attacking Romney with deceit, spin and interuption like Biden.

Or you know... explain Romney's positions and inconsistencies perhaps?

Romney has positions?
A position for any voter.
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