Shades of 2004, the election may hinge on OH
If we go strictly by 538, OH is superfluous for Romney -- Obama's three most tenuous states are Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio, in that order, and Romney only needs Iowa and Nevada to win. (Actually, send it to the House, but he'll win there).
62.7% chance for Obama in Nevada,
63.5% chance in Ohio
Very close there. One wonders if Silver's model takes into account that Ohio is 81% non-Hispanic white while Nevada is only 53.6% this type - it seems to me that taking this into account, and given both the nature of Romney's momentum (entirely confined to white swing voters), and the famed and fairly unique polling bias of Nevada... this ranking of NV as more Romney than OH could be considered a very minor inexactitude of his overall quite good model.
