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Author Topic: Nate makes big move towards Romney  (Read 2986 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: October 13, 2012, 04:02:24 pm »

Looks like Biden was a big boost for the Romney ticket.
Survey USA results:
 Tampa/St. Pete… Ryan wins debate 42-38

       Change vote? yes: 73% to Romney 27% to Obama!

In New York area, Biden wins debate 54-30

But vote switchers still went 54%-38% in favor of Romney…

CA Biden wins debate  48% to 41%
but vote switchers favor Romney  59% to 40%

This may be a situation where the debate does two semi-contradictory things at the same time.

I "suspect" Obama may be a brief micro-bump in the polls because Democrats will have LOVED what Biden did, and hence will be more enthusiastic, and a few more Dems will thus be deemed "likely" in the voter screening models.

On the other hand, Independents likely views him as a rude idiot buffoon, which at the margins may help Romney with that group.

Mind you, very, very few voters actually vote on the VP choice, so the net positive may be pretty small.

To Bidens credit, for at least a bit the story line has changed from how Romney thrashed Obama to how Biden is a crude buffoon, so while both are negative story lines for the Dems, one is abut the VP (thus doesn't really matter) the other about the President (relevant to their vote), so in that sense it's a better story for the Dems, in that the negative story is about something irrelevant rather than an issue the impacts the actual voting decision.

Besides, how much MORE of an idiot can Biden be considered by most folks?
« Last Edit: October 13, 2012, 04:13:51 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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