Nate makes big move towards Romney

[Vosem]

Shades of 2004, the election may hinge on OH

If we go strictly by 538, OH is superfluous for Romney -- Obama's three most tenuous states are Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio, in that order, and Romney only needs Iowa and Nevada to win. (Actually, send it to the House, but he'll win there).

[Vosem]

The state-by-state margins seem off; Mississippi statistically almost cannot be >60% Romney for the sole reason of the black vote. Alabama being 64% Romney is also highly implausible. In fact, his model seems to be of all states having roughly the same % swing, factoring into my theory that hunches can often be better than statistical models (you know what 14 year-old got only one Senate race wrong when Nate got 3 wrong? This guy!).

Nate, I recall, only got 2 wrong (Colorado & Nevada)...what was the third?