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  Rocky Mountain Poll (Behavior Research Center): Obama up 2 in Arizona
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Author Topic: Rocky Mountain Poll (Behavior Research Center): Obama up 2 in Arizona  (Read 7069 times)
pa2011
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« on: October 13, 2012, 01:06:47 pm »
« edited: October 13, 2012, 01:41:27 pm by Tender Branson »

Likely voters, Oct. 4-10:

44% Obama
42% Romney
  3% Johnson
  1% Stein

http://de.scribd.com/doc/109920743/RMP-2012-III-01
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2012, 01:07:32 pm »

lolno
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2012, 01:08:08 pm »

IIRC, Rocky Mountain AZ polls are crap.

Need to look up their track record later ...
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2012, 01:14:57 pm »

Hahahaha... No way
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2012, 01:18:18 pm »

Countertrolling the R Pollster Flood?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2012, 01:26:07 pm »

IIRC, Rocky Mountain AZ polls are crap.

Need to look up their track record later ...

Rocky Mountain AZ is actually the good pollster. AZ State University is the bad pollster.

So, Rocky Mountain didnt poll the AZ Presidential race in 2008.

But they polled in 2010 and had Brewer by 11 (she won by 12).

In 2004, they had Bush by 10 (Bush won by 10).

In 2004, they had Bush by 3 (Bush won by 6).

So, not too bad historically.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2012, 01:28:04 pm »

Romney winning FL, VA, and NH, losing both AZ and NC. LOL.
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Scott
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2012, 01:29:05 pm »

Even with that track record, I'm not trusting this one...

How do the crosstabs look?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2012, 01:29:28 pm »

IIRC, Rocky Mountain AZ polls are crap.

Need to look up their track record later ...

Rocky Mountain AZ is actually the good pollster. AZ State University is the bad pollster.

So, Rocky Mountain didnt poll the AZ Presidential race in 2008.

But they polled in 2010 and had Brewer by 11 (she won by 12).

In 2004, they had Bush by 10 (Bush won by 10).

In 2004, they had Bush by 3 (Bush won by 6).

So, not too bad historically.

Correction: They polled AZ in May 2008 for the last time and had McCain ahead by 11 (he won by 8 or 9 or so).
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Simfan34
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2012, 01:32:21 pm »

I think we need to start considering the possibility that it's not the pollsters that are trolling, but the states themselves.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2012, 01:32:52 pm »

The only way this would make any sense in the current post-ROMNEY=REAGAN!!!!!1111 climate is if Carmona is somehow pulling Obama's numbers up.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2012, 01:41:56 pm »

Updated OP with link and results.
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Solidarity Forever
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2012, 01:45:56 pm »

...no.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2012, 01:47:02 pm »

Nate Silver said on Twitter it reminded him of '04 polls showing Bush leading in Hawaii. Tongue
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2012, 01:49:15 pm »

Nate Silver said on Twitter it reminded him of '04 polls showing Bush leading in Hawaii. Tongue
That poll, while not technically right, was closer to the truth than the conventional wisdom before its release, so I'll buy that. Grin
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Yank2133
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2012, 01:50:18 pm »

The polls.....they aren't making any sense!
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Scott
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2012, 01:50:55 pm »

Nate Silver said on Twitter it reminded him of '04 polls showing Bush leading in Hawaii. Tongue
That poll, while not technically right, was closer to the truth than the conventional wisdom before its release, so I'll buy that. Grin

Yeah, Hawaii was surprisingly somewhat close.  I think the only question will be if Obama can get within 10% of the PV this time, not whether he'll win the state.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2012, 01:54:36 pm »

Nate Silver does point out that this includes Spanish-language interviews, which is kind of interesting. Still think it's an outlier, mind.
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wan
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2012, 01:56:05 pm »

Arizona has 11 electoral votes not bad if obama can snatch those. Obama should run ads there
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Meeker
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2012, 02:00:56 pm »

Nate Silver does point out that this includes Spanish-language interviews, which is kind of interesting. Still think it's an outlier, mind.

^^

Eventually this (and the cell phone vs. landline difference) will start affecting pollsters if they don't compensate for it.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2012, 02:17:13 pm »

If Obama snatched AZ but lost CO. It's really 1996. Anyways, not gonna happen even if Nate Silver wishing so.
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Ty440
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2012, 02:22:22 pm »

Viva Arizona!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2012, 02:42:43 pm »

If there is hope, it must lie in the (Hispanic, Spanish-speaking, cell-phone only) proles.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2012, 03:28:26 pm »

If there is hope, it must lie in the (Hispanic, Spanish-speaking, cell-phone only) proles.

If the pollsters have been undercounting Latino voters... then this could be right. Also, if Joe Biden got some positive effects by casting doubts upon GOP credibility on Medicare and Social Security... Romney offered a something-for-nothing deal as an alternative.

If this poll indicates a trend, then President Obama isn't going to lose Colorado or Nevada.   
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5280
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2012, 03:28:35 pm »

If this poll is true, then is it 1996 all over again?  AZ going for Obama, and CO going for Romney? lol  Honestly, I think it's an outlier.
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