Rocky Mountain Poll (Behavior Research Center): Obama up 2 in Arizona

[Gass3268]

This poll seems to back up this article:

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/10/why-arizona-may-be-the-surpise-of-2012-the-big-latino-vote-that-you-didnt-see-coming/

[Niemeyerite]

People, people. Rocky Mountain may be a good pollster, but this is an outlier. Obama can't be winning here if he lost by 9 in 2008 (when he won by 7 nationally). He's probably down by 10-12 points, or 7-9 if you think in 2008 there was a clear favourite-son effect.
Even if Latinos vote massively, Obama can't win this.

So, junk poll.

[greenforest32]

This poll seems to back up this article:

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/10/why-arizona-may-be-the-surpise-of-2012-the-big-latino-vote-that-you-didnt-see-coming/

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I don't know if he could get those last few points, even with those numbers. I was looking at the Arizona exit poll numbers and McCain won Arizona by 8.5 points in 2008.

If Obama hit 80% of the AZ Latino vote in 2012, that would be an increase of about 4 points compared to the 56% he got in 2008 (assuming a 16% vote share) right? He'd still have to cover those last 4.5 points and he could only get that by the Latino vote share increasing (do we have any estimates on what it will be in 2012 compared to 2008's 16%?) or doing better with whites. He'd have to do more than 5% better than 2008 with AZ whites to get another 4 points.

That might have been possible if he crushed Romney in the first debate but I don't think it's too likely with the way things went.

[Lief 🗽]

In 2008 in Arizona, the white vote (75% of the electorate) was split R-D 60-40. The non-white vote (25% of the electorate) was split D-R 60-40. If you split that 25% 80-20 instead, you get a 50-50 tie, instead of the 55-45 R victory of 2008. Of coure that assumes that Obama does not worse with Arizonan whites and that turnout percentages are the same. But 80% non-white support for Obama makes the state very winnable.

[Likely Voter]

There was some talk of Team Obama targeting AZ. It seems like they could get some milage out of just running a campaign targeting Latinos. Much of the RV/LV disparity in all polling is due to lower turnout projections for Latinos who are supporting Obama but less likely to vote. (same is true of youngs)

[RogueBeaver]

As Julio said, junk poll.

[President von Cat]

I think it is junk, but what about the Hispanic vote?

77% for Obama to 10% for Romney. Not sure those numbers are entirely unrealistic. If its like that in Nevada or Colorado, how is Romney going to win those states?

[Mister Twister]

I think it is junk, but what about the Hispanic vote?

77% for Obama to 10% for Romney. Not sure those numbers are entirely unrealistic. If its like that in Nevada or Colorado, how is Romney going to win those states?

It won't be that high for Obama in Nevada or Colorado because those states haven't had racist laws aimed at Hispanics. Just Arizona.

[J. J.]

Nate Silver said on Twitter it reminded him of '04 polls showing Bush leading in Hawaii.

Well, at least there were two of those (I think). 

I wouldn't call it junk, but it probably is an outlier.

[President von Cat]

I think it is junk, but what about the Hispanic vote?

77% for Obama to 10% for Romney. Not sure those numbers are entirely unrealistic. If its like that in Nevada or Colorado, how is Romney going to win those states?

It won't be that high for Obama in Nevada or Colorado because those states haven't had racist laws aimed at Hispanics. Just Arizona.

Well if you have heard about that stuff happening while living in Japan, its safe to say that people in bordering states have heard about it too. And perhaps it has made the whole Republican brand toxic, no matter if a newfound moderate hero is leading it?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I really wish this poll were true, because the senate numbers look about right. But..... with a tied race nationally, I highly doubt Obama is winning. So, junk outlier poll.

[greenforest32]

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I don't know if he could get those last few points, even with those numbers. I was looking at the Arizona exit poll numbers and McCain won Arizona by 8.5 points in 2008.

If Obama hit 80% of the AZ Latino vote in 2012, that would be an increase of about 4 points compared to the 56% he got in 2008 (assuming a 16% vote share) right? He'd still have to cover those last 4.5 points and he could only get that by the Latino vote share increasing (do we have any estimates on what it will be in 2012 compared to 2008's 16%?) or doing better with whites. He'd have to do more than 5% better than 2008 with AZ whites to get another 4 points.

That might have been possible if he crushed Romney in the first debate but I don't think it's too likely with the way things went.

Wait, I did the math wrong on that didn't I?

An additional four points to Obama would be four points from Romney for an eight point shift right? Maybe it's not so far off.

[Cliffy]

You guys are hillarious.  Arizona is not even close, let alone Obama up.  It's bad enough you guys think you are up in NC or FL, even though your guy has pulled out (NC) or is slowly pulling out (FL). 

Comedy gold. 

[Mister Twister]

You guys are hillarious.  Arizona is not even close, let alone Obama up.  It's bad enough you guys think you are up in NC or FL, even though your guy has pulled out (NC) or is slowly pulling out (FL). 

Comedy gold. 

Shut your fat mouth up or I'll do it for you.

[Orion0]

You guys are hillarious.  Arizona is not even close, let alone Obama up.  It's bad enough you guys think you are up in NC or FL, even though your guy has pulled out (NC) or is slowly pulling out (FL).  

Comedy gold.  

Shut your fat mouth up or I'll do it for you.

Can't refute the facts, so this is it. Mature. Have a discussion about it. O is pulling out of NC, AZ is nowhere close to flipping and FL is close but leaning R. So this guy has his facts correct. You have none, want to prove a point? Use your brain, create a logical argument. This poll seems crazy off just let it be.

[Cliffy]

Insults and threats are rushing in to fill the vacuum, it'is all they've got.  Lol, message board threats, that's rich.

You guys are hillarious.  Arizona is not even close, let alone Obama up.  It's bad enough you guys think you are up in NC or FL, even though your guy has pulled out (NC) or is slowly pulling out (FL).  

Comedy gold.  

Shut your fat mouth up or I'll do it for you.

Can't refute the facts, so this is it. Mature. Have a discussion about it. O is pulling out of NC, AZ is nowhere close to flipping and FL is close but leaning R. So this guy has his facts correct. You have none, want to prove a point? Use your brain, create a logical argument. This poll seems crazy off just let it be.

[pbrower2a]

You guys are hillarious.  Arizona is not even close, let alone Obama up.  It's bad enough you guys think you are up in NC or FL, even though your guy has pulled out (NC) or is slowly pulling out (FL). 

Comedy gold. 

That pollster (Rocky Mountain)  says things that other pollsters have yet to say.

If you were a Mexican-American living in Arizona, would you have any use for the right-wing pols who have pushed humiliating legislation against people who happen to be a bit off-white? Having an icon of the Virgin of the Virgin of Guadalupe does not imply 'illegal alien'.

Could it also be that the incumbent VP just body-slammed the Republican VP nominee on Social Security and Medicare? Such would have no connection to ethnicity except that the white population is decidedly older than the Hispanic population in Arizona. Could it be that right-wing demagogue Jan Brewer is becoming politically toxic?

I can say nothing about that. But here we have a pollster who allows people to choose to respond to complete strangers (actually a synthesized voice) in Spanish. Such is significant.

Ethnic animosity of Anglo populations toward Mexican-Americans in Arizona has never been as severe as that of whites toward blacks. People in mass employers in Arizona surely have Hispanic co-workers. Large families of Anglo origin might have a beloved in-law who is a Mexican-American.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, I'm thinking the Arizona GOP may have Prop 187'd itself here.

[5280]

Obama is not winning AZ, end of thread.

[5280]

You guys are hillarious.  Arizona is not even close, let alone Obama up.  It's bad enough you guys think you are up in NC or FL, even though your guy has pulled out (NC) or is slowly pulling out (FL).  

Comedy gold.  

Shut your fat mouth up or I'll do it for you.

You're not helping out with immature remarks, grow up.

[Tender Branson]

Fail !

Even though it was good in the past ...