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Author Topic: most unelectable potential nominee?  (Read 9102 times)
TheWildCard
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« Reply #75 on: February 11, 2005, 02:17:03 am »

Newt Gingrich... For his history as a hypocrite and a down right unethical person.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #76 on: February 11, 2005, 08:52:16 am »

Hillary Clinton's electability is a very interesting question.

Most people here have assumed she is unelectable, but I am not so sure.  Certainly, she is unelectable as the brittle, extremist, feminist, abrasive New Yorker that we all know and love.  That was her persona for the first half of her Senate term.

But now she is trying to give the impression of becoming more moderate.  I don't believe it for a minute, but let's face it.  The voters have very short memories.  Nothing this woman does is from conviction, and the only thing she really cares about is advancing her own power, but if she can convince voters that there's a "new Hillary" (much like Nixon convinced voters there was a "new Nixon"), then I think she could be a very tough candidate.

Right now, she has very high approval ratings from her constituents in New York.  Granted, they are significantly more liberal than the nation as a whole, but she really only has to win the states that Gore and Kerry won, plus a few more for good measure.  If she positions herself correctly, this could well be within her reach.

The Democrats will have an advantage next time around because there will have been 8 straight years of Republican rule.  Unless things are going great, and Bush is another Ronald Reagan by that time (doubtful), voters will lean toward change, all other things being equal.  I would not simply dismiss Hillary.

Going against her is her front-runner status so early, and the fact that she is a Senator rather than a governor.  Early front-runner status has killed many candidates, and at least some of it is reflective of the fact that she is the best recognized name.  Senators are rarely elected president.  But Hillary could break the mold, especially since she has such a strong following among the Democratic "base" (God help us) that they will let her get away with maneuvering to the right a little bit without making her appear to be flip-flopping, as Kerry appeared to do.

On the Republican side, I have grave doubts about Giuliani and Pataki.  Pataki is a washout, unpopular even in New York.  He has run the state's Republican party into the ground.  I just don't see any base for a national run.  In any case, he'll have little appeal to the Republican base in the south and west.  Giuliani may fare better, but I see him having great difficulty in the primaries, especially as the details of his personal life become more widely known (married 3 times, publicly cheated on 2nd wife).  Republican voters hold their candidates to a much higher standard of personal behavior than Democratic voters hold their candidates to, so this could be fatal to Giuliani.
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TomC
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« Reply #77 on: February 14, 2005, 11:52:04 pm »

What do you guys make of the CNN/Gallup poll showing that Hillary has the support of 40% of Dems, Kerry about 25%, and Edwards a distant third around 15% or so? 

Are you Bayh supporters far ahead of the curve, or are you far behind the curve? 

Having only heard the poll results on radio, I don't know how well Bayh polled, but it has to be below Edwards, which can't be too good for Bayh.



Intrade, which does futures on political races among other things, has Clinton leading the pack, but has Bayh second, ahead of Gore, Kerry, and Edwards, although based on price and movement, Clinton is pretty far ahead.  On the GOP side, Giuliani and McCain are close and Frist is not far behind.
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Renew our Democracy!
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« Reply #78 on: February 15, 2005, 12:00:42 am »

Yikes!  If that's all the GOP has going for it right now, our chances aren't very good in '08.  I guess we'll get four years to rebuild the party and defeat Hillary in her re-election.
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Erc
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« Reply #79 on: February 15, 2005, 04:14:41 pm »

Yeah...despite a large field of candidates, we don't have very many real candidates, do we...

Rudy, McCain, and Hagel won't make it through the primaries.
Frist and Pataki are unelectable.
Jeb is a Bush.

Who's left, other than Bill Owens?
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Proud Mugwump.
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« Reply #80 on: February 15, 2005, 04:44:58 pm »

Yeah...despite a large field of candidates, we don't have very many real candidates, do we...

Rudy, McCain, and Hagel won't make it through the primaries.
Frist and Pataki are unelectable.
Jeb is a Bush.

Who's left, other than Bill Owens?

Sanford
Allen
Romney
Brownback(Who I don't care for)

Are some other names they're talking about.
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« Reply #81 on: February 15, 2005, 06:07:47 pm »

Hmmm... I guess I need to study up on Sanford.  Maybe with him at the top of the ticket, and Romney as Veep, the GOP can retain its Southern strategy, while making inroads in the Northeast.
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