most unelectable potential nominee?

[dazzleman]

Hillary Clinton's electability is a very interesting question.

Most people here have assumed she is unelectable, but I am not so sure.  Certainly, she is unelectable as the brittle, extremist, feminist, abrasive New Yorker that we all know and love.  That was her persona for the first half of her Senate term.

But now she is trying to give the impression of becoming more moderate.  I don't believe it for a minute, but let's face it.  The voters have very short memories.  Nothing this woman does is from conviction, and the only thing she really cares about is advancing her own power, but if she can convince voters that there's a "new Hillary" (much like Nixon convinced voters there was a "new Nixon"), then I think she could be a very tough candidate.

Right now, she has very high approval ratings from her constituents in New York.  Granted, they are significantly more liberal than the nation as a whole, but she really only has to win the states that Gore and Kerry won, plus a few more for good measure.  If she positions herself correctly, this could well be within her reach.

The Democrats will have an advantage next time around because there will have been 8 straight years of Republican rule.  Unless things are going great, and Bush is another Ronald Reagan by that time (doubtful), voters will lean toward change, all other things being equal.  I would not simply dismiss Hillary.

Going against her is her front-runner status so early, and the fact that she is a Senator rather than a governor.  Early front-runner status has killed many candidates, and at least some of it is reflective of the fact that she is the best recognized name.  Senators are rarely elected president.  But Hillary could break the mold, especially since she has such a strong following among the Democratic "base" (God help us) that they will let her get away with maneuvering to the right a little bit without making her appear to be flip-flopping, as Kerry appeared to do.

On the Republican side, I have grave doubts about Giuliani and Pataki.  Pataki is a washout, unpopular even in New York.  He has run the state's Republican party into the ground.  I just don't see any base for a national run.  In any case, he'll have little appeal to the Republican base in the south and west.  Giuliani may fare better, but I see him having great difficulty in the primaries, especially as the details of his personal life become more widely known (married 3 times, publicly cheated on 2nd wife).  Republican voters hold their candidates to a much higher standard of personal behavior than Democratic voters hold their candidates to, so this could be fatal to Giuliani.