GA-Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll: Romney+8

[Tender Branson]

Likely voters:

51% Romney
43% Obama
  1% Others
  5% Undecided

The poll was conducted Oct. 8-11 by Abt SRBI of New York.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A lot more realistic than the last poll out of GA... but I don't know the firm, so appropriate grains of salt applied to this.

[Tender Branson]

A lot more realistic than the last poll out of GA... but I don't know the firm, so appropriate grains of salt applied to this.

Abt SRBI is usually known as the Washington Post pollster.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A lot more realistic than the last poll out of GA... but I don't know the firm, so appropriate grains of salt applied to this.

Abt SRBI is usually known as the Washington Post pollster.

Ahhh, then I feel a little better about them.

[Bacon King]

poll questions about the issues make me lol:

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[Tender Branson]

More info:

[Hash]

47% of the unemployed for Mitt Romney...

[Ty440]

Romney 71% of the white vote!

The south never  ceases to amaze.

[Bacon King]

Romney 71% of the white vote!

The south never  ceases to amaze.

Per exit polls, McCain got 76% of the white vote here in 2008, so that's an improvement (although white undecideds in this state generally break to the right so it'll probably be around that anyway). At least we're still better than the rest of the deep south, though

[tmthforu94]

Romney 71% of the white vote!

The south never  ceases to amaze.

Can someone explain to me why it is so racist and horrible that 70% of white voters are backing Romney, yet no one ever bothers to mention the fact that 95%+ of African-Americans are backing Obama? Now, I understand they traditionally vote Democratic anyways (Same could be said with white voters on the GOP), but Obama has certainly received a much higher % than previous Democratic candidates, and turnout amongst African-Americans was way up in 2008.

It's just something I've never quite understood. Maybe I'm not being politically correct, but oh well.

[pbrower2a]

Romney 71% of the white vote!

The south never  ceases to amaze.

Can someone explain to me why it is so racist and horrible that 70% of white voters are backing Romney, yet no one ever bothers to mention the fact that 95%+ of African-Americans are backing Obama? Now, I understand they traditionally vote Democratic anyways (Same could be said with white voters on the GOP), but Obama has certainly received a much higher % than previous Democratic candidates, and turnout amongst African-Americans was way up in 2008.

It's just something I've never quite understood. Maybe I'm not being politically correct, but oh well.

When the hatred is visceral and without foundation in some personal outrage it just might be racism. It was not racism to hate Osama bin Laden... or for that matter, Jerry Sandusky.

Racism is a reality in politics in the rural South, and President Obama can easily be cast as the "food stamp" President. Metro Atlanta is fairly liberal, but Georgia is still heavily rural. Barack Obama has failed badly to win rural white support; he has the wrong campaign techniques for rural areas. He does win rural blacks, Hispanics, and First Peoples.   

In 2016, when the Democrats  nominate a white populist, Georgia can be a swing state. Barack Obama might be the right sort of Democrat to win Virginia, but the wrong Democrat to win Georgia.  Barack Obama is no populist. 

[Bacon King]

Romney 71% of the white vote!

The south never  ceases to amaze.

Can someone explain to me why it is so racist and horrible that 70% of white voters are backing Romney, yet no one ever bothers to mention the fact that 95%+ of African-Americans are backing Obama? Now, I understand they traditionally vote Democratic anyways (Same could be said with white voters on the GOP), but Obama has certainly received a much higher % than previous Democratic candidates, and turnout amongst African-Americans was way up in 2008.

It's just something I've never quite understood. Maybe I'm not being politically correct, but oh well.

Who said anything about racism? Kerry and Obama got identical shares of the white vote in Georgia, y'know. Personally, I just dislike how conservative my state happens to be, and in particular all of the horrible politicians that come out of the lily-white Atlanta exurbs.

But at any rate, I don't think it's "racist" or whatev that Obama got 95% of the black vote compared to the usual Democratic 90% or so, or that he's inspired so many African Americans to vote. It's kind of a silly comparison to make regardless of the point I was making.

[Badger]

Black voters are used to voting for white candidates and do so regularly. Even those blacks in overwhelmingly black communities usually don't live in overwhelmingly african-american counties or congressional districts where white candidates at those levels aren't the norm (albeit maybe not universal). Even among the minority of blacks whohlive in heavily A-A counties and CDs are obviously used to voting for whites running for statewide races where African-American candidates are very much the exception rather than the rule.

Conversely, few whites live in electoral districts/communities where blacks constitute more than a small minority of voters. While there are of course rare exceptions where a black is elected in a largely white jurisdiction (e.g. Mia Love), and (less rare) whites who live in black plurality urban cities and 'black belt' rural counties, for most whites Obama will be the only a-a candidate on their ballot. This situation hardly unique to tyis year or 08 either.

[old timey villain]

This seems reasonable. Although it's encouraging to see Georgia +8 for Romney when the nation as a whole is probably +1 for Romney right now. This shows that Georgia is moving more to the center.

I hate to say it, but the only way Democrats will ever win Georgia is when minorities and educated urbanites surpass the good ol' boy vote. It's just this insurmountable wall that Democrats cannot crack through. Trust me, I come from a town full of them. They're good people and really not as conservative as you'd think, but they just will not vote for a Democrat because they think the Democratic party stands for everything they're against. Are they right? I don't think so. On a breakdown of the issues, a majority of Georgians seem to place a high priority on things that Democrats deliver on, like healthcare and education. But when these folks look at the big picture, they see Dems as the party of liberalism, secularism, socialism and welfarism.

It's gonna take some work.

[Brittain33]

If black voters as a minority block vote for a candidate, that candidate still needs white voters to get elected and has to govern in an open way.

If white voters block vote for a candidate, they can get elected without any minority votes at all. We've got a bad history in this country with government dominated by a single racial group, although then they usually went to the effort to prevent blacks from voting, because in some states blacks were a majority.

[Ty440]

Romney 71% of the white vote!

The south never  ceases to amaze.

Can someone explain to me why it is so racist and horrible that 70% of white voters are backing Romney, yet no one ever bothers to mention the fact that 95%+ of African-Americans are backing Obama? Now, I understand they traditionally vote Democratic anyways (Same could be said with white voters on the GOP), but Obama has certainly received a much higher % than previous Democratic candidates, and turnout amongst African-Americans was way up in 2008.

It's just something I've never quite understood. Maybe I'm not being politically correct, but oh well.

When my aunt went to canvas for Obama in 2008 she told me about some of the horrible racist things people would say about Obama. Do you think either McCain or Romney had or has  that problem?

I'm sure that 99.9 of African-Americans voters  would be willing to vote for a white candidate who shares their values, while a sizable percentage of White Ohioans would NEVER vote for a black under any circumstance.

There is your difference my friend.

[Adam Griffin]

If you project these results by race onto the 2008 GA electorate, Romney would be ahead by approximately 5 points (49.3/44.4). When you consider how right-leaning undecideds tend to be, I think the result would look something like 53/46. It will be interesting to see what turnout will entail; rapid, new growth clashing with more apathy may produce an unsubstantial change in the composition of the electorate.

It's interesting to see lower support among men for Romney (51%) than for McCain (58%). Romney would have to seal up all male undecideds to get the same result.

It's the same for women, too, but opposite. Obama is down 6 points (54% in 2008, 48% here) in this poll when compared to his 2008 result. He'd have to likewise seal up all the female undecideds to achieve his past result.

[Brittain33]

If this poll is accurate, then I would expect Virginia to have Obama ahead, still.

[technical support]

to close for Romney's comfort?

Obama's almost certainly not going to win Georgia, but if he's only trailing by single digits, then he's not doing too bad!

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/romney-tops-obama-in-georgia-as-economy-dominates-/nScjq/

[Yank2133]

If this true, it only makes Gallup's 30 point lead in the south for Mitt even more ridiculous.

[pa2011]

Could just be a good poll, for once. McCain only won Georgia by a little more than 5 points, so Romney up only 8 doesn't seem that off to me. In a state like Georgia, I imagine there is probably a pretty high floor for Obama, considering it has a very large black population and there are a fair number of white liberals in Atlanta. But no expert on Georgia.

[Adam Griffin]

Could just be a good poll, for once. McCain only won Georgia by a little more than 5 points, so Romney up only 8 doesn't seem that off to me. In a state like Georgia, I imagine there is probably a pretty high floor for Obama, considering it has a very large black population and there are a fair number of white liberals in Atlanta. But no expert on Georgia.

You're essentially right. Years back, that floor was around 38-40%, but the white share of the population has been consistently dropping by around 1% per year and voter registration rolls are losing whites at a similar rate. In March 2012, whites made up exactly 60.00% of the registered voting population. As of October 1st, whites now make up 59.56%. Georgia is unique in that African-Americans are still a growing percentage of the electorate, and the additional benefits of some white liberals and a growing Latino population makes the state a guaranteed Democratic state again at some point in the future.

If Obama could get 25-26% of the white vote, the state would be his. We'll probably be hovering around 23% like the past two times. The undecideds in this poll most likely are the soccer moms in Cobb and Gwinnett counties - many who voted for Obama in 2008 but are still struggling with the decision.

[Antonio the Sixth]

47% of the unemployed for Mitt Romney...

ROFLMAO

[SPQR]

If Michigan is doable for Romney,then Georgia is doable for Obama by the same reasoning...

Obviously,I believe in neither of the two.