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  PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.
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Author Topic: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.  (Read 1802 times)
Cliffy
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« Reply #25 on: October 14, 2012, 08:09:28 pm »

Yep. 
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #26 on: October 14, 2012, 08:21:54 pm »

Highly doubtful Obama would ever pull out of Florida, especially since the campaign keeps talking about how great their ground game is there and how good voter registration has been going And after raising $180 million last month, sort of doubt Obama is facing a cash flow problem? How much money can realistically be spent in Ohio?

Exactly. Money is not going to be a problem for either candidate, they both have more than they can effectively spend. What does bear watching is how where the candidates spend their time between now and the election. I could see Obama spending less time in Florida and North Carolina and more in Ohio, Colorado and Virginia.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #27 on: October 14, 2012, 09:49:16 pm »

Not bad. The Midwestern firewall (OH+IA+WI) shall continue to receive the VIS treatment but Obama will never give up in Florida.
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philly09
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« Reply #28 on: October 14, 2012, 09:50:14 pm »

Not bad. The Midwestern firewall (OH+IA+WI) shall continue to receive the VIS treatment but Obama will never give up in Florida.


What's VIS?
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President von Cat
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« Reply #29 on: October 14, 2012, 10:07:00 pm »

Not bad. The Midwestern firewall (OH+IA+WI) shall continue to receive the VIS treatment but Obama will never give up in Florida.


What's VIS?

Very Important State.

PPP has been better for Obama than for Romney as a whole this cycle, so I assume the gap is a bit wider than 1, maybe between 2-3 points? Either way, much better than that hack poll that showed a 7 point gap. Florida is winnable for either candidate.
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J. J.
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« Reply #30 on: October 14, 2012, 11:30:48 pm »



In fact, if Obama wins Florida, he just needs one more swing state, even New Hampshire (the smallest one), and he's at or over 270.

The problem is:

A.  He still might lose FL.

B.  He'd run a higher chance of losing additional states.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #31 on: October 14, 2012, 11:36:12 pm »

Gravis also has Romney +1 in Florida tonight.
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King
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« Reply #32 on: October 15, 2012, 12:35:18 am »

2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71
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Spamage
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« Reply #33 on: October 15, 2012, 12:39:56 am »

2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......
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King
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« Reply #34 on: October 15, 2012, 12:45:31 am »

2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......

pls my numbers are Based on the truth not False Hope like that of Romdumb media.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #35 on: October 15, 2012, 12:51:53 am »

2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......

pls my numbers are Based on the truth not False Hope like that of Romdumb media.

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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #36 on: October 15, 2012, 01:54:58 am »

2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......
He has an entire thread in the sub forum pinpointing exactly why using ideological shifts is infinitely more effective and useful than party shifts, and here he has thus taken that knowledge and applied it to these polls for a possibly more correct outcome. The fact that the numbers came out Pro-Obama is the way it is, but you can't really dispute that the logic of his procedure is fully sound.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #37 on: October 15, 2012, 09:36:23 am »
« Edited: October 15, 2012, 09:38:20 am by Bacon King »

Hmm. This poll has Hispanics voting 50% Obama, 47% Romney; this is really odd because the 2008 exit poll recorded Hispanics as voting 57% Obama, 42% McCain and this fairly recent poll of Florida Hispanics done by Latino Decisions gave Obama a lead of thirty points (61 to 31, counting leaners).

I normally consider PPP to be one of the better pollsters out there-- they're surprisingly accurate, especially for a robodial operation-- but I think they have a big inaccuracy here. I remember they had a similar problem during Florida's primary as well, consistently showing Gingrich with a huge lead among Cubans when they ended up voting heavily for Romney. I haven't noticed these issues in any other state, even those with significant Hispanic populations. For whatever reason, it appears that PPP apparently sucks at polling Florida Hispanics?

But anyway, by replacing PPP's Hispanic breakdown with the breakdown of the Latino Decisions poll, I get the following numbers:

Obama 50%
Romney 46%
undecided 4%
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krazen1211
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« Reply #38 on: October 15, 2012, 09:45:20 am »

But Romney has surged with Florida Latinos.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/fiu-hispanic-fl-voter-poll-obama-51-romney-44.html
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opebo
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« Reply #39 on: October 15, 2012, 09:48:24 am »


Yeah, I think that's right.  Which makes a 1% lead, given that fact, pretty weak.  However I do think he'll pull it out in the end.
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ajb
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« Reply #40 on: October 15, 2012, 09:57:36 am »

FWIW, the article notes that this FIU poll was the first-ever IVR poll specifically done of Florida Hispanics, and, as such, did not call cell phones. Latino Decisions used live callers. That may account for some significant part of the difference between polls.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #41 on: October 15, 2012, 10:05:26 am »

Until Malia ran me down last night, I had seen some of his posts and thought they were jokes with "his" numbers, and I'm not trying to be mean.  On first glance I'd have to say that his system is flawed more than just party ID and it's basically the same argument but even harder to tell how to slice and dice moderates.  I'll look deeper into it when I have time. 

2004 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 20
Moderate 47
Conservative 34

2008 Florida Exit Polls
Liberal 19
Moderate 47
Conservative 35

This Poll
Liberal 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 41%

srry this poll is wrong must reject  here are my numbers:

Obama 51.13
Romney 47.71

Please tell me you're not going to turn into a pro-Obama version of Ben Romney.......

pls my numbers are Based on the truth not False Hope like that of Romdumb media.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #42 on: October 15, 2012, 11:35:48 am »


Hm, interersting. PPP's last Florida poll, from Sept. 23rd, had a Hispanic breakdown of 49% Obama to 47% Romney, so they didn't notice any shift.

I'm not sure the poll you linked to is necessarily accurate, though; it looks like it oversampled Cubans significantly: 47% of the respondents.

Here's the most recent Florida poll I could find where they asked about Cuban ancestry (it was also done by live interviewers as opposed to robo-calls, dunno if that's the cause of the difference here). Across the last three runs of that Marist poll, Cuban's have always been just around ~35% of Hispanic voters.
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