Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 18, 2020, 11:35:38 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (Primary) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida. (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.  (Read 1797 times)
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


« on: October 14, 2012, 07:04:16 pm »

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

Obama needs to keep up the fight in OH; he still has a good shot at VA.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2012, 07:19:46 pm »

They should stealth pull out of Florida, or spend less. It's too expensive and Obama doesn't even really need it.

It's a statistical tie. Pulling out also gives Romney room to hit Ohio and Virginia.

On this poll; the others are trending higher as well.

J.J., when you say a poll is trending higher, does that mean you expect any increase in Romney's numbers demonstrates momentum that leads to further increases that should be priced in?

I mean that the other polls are showing that Romney has increased as well and even assuming a minor Democratic "house bias" from PPP (and I assume it is less than Nate Silver), it probably is higher.

Unless Obama is great Tuesday night, I'd say, hit OH and VA (and some of the smaller states). 

I was a big advocate of Kerry pulling out of FL in 2004 and moving to OH; it might have made a difference.

FL is nice, but the price of winning it is probably OH, VA, IA, WI, and maybe NV.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2012, 11:30:48 pm »



In fact, if Obama wins Florida, he just needs one more swing state, even New Hampshire (the smallest one), and he's at or over 270.

The problem is:

A.  He still might lose FL.

B.  He'd run a higher chance of losing additional states.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC