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  PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida. (search mode)
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Author Topic: PPP -- Romney up 1 in Florida.  (Read 1808 times)
Bacon King
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« on: October 14, 2012, 06:46:10 pm »

Democrats shouldn't be giving up this easy.  To be a 2nd President, Obama only needs 270, but to be a good 2nd term President, he needs at least 300 because he needs to pick up the House along the way if he has any hope of getting anything done.

I agree that Obama shouldn't be conceding Florida just because he's within the margin of error; that's a bit silly of an argument for everyone to be making here.

However, no matter how well Obama does, the numerous post-redistricting GOP gerrymanders across the country still make retaking the House an extremely difficult proposition.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2012, 09:36:23 am »
« Edited: October 15, 2012, 09:38:20 am by Bacon King »

Hmm. This poll has Hispanics voting 50% Obama, 47% Romney; this is really odd because the 2008 exit poll recorded Hispanics as voting 57% Obama, 42% McCain and this fairly recent poll of Florida Hispanics done by Latino Decisions gave Obama a lead of thirty points (61 to 31, counting leaners).

I normally consider PPP to be one of the better pollsters out there-- they're surprisingly accurate, especially for a robodial operation-- but I think they have a big inaccuracy here. I remember they had a similar problem during Florida's primary as well, consistently showing Gingrich with a huge lead among Cubans when they ended up voting heavily for Romney. I haven't noticed these issues in any other state, even those with significant Hispanic populations. For whatever reason, it appears that PPP apparently sucks at polling Florida Hispanics?

But anyway, by replacing PPP's Hispanic breakdown with the breakdown of the Latino Decisions poll, I get the following numbers:

Obama 50%
Romney 46%
undecided 4%
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Bacon King
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2012, 11:35:48 am »


Hm, interersting. PPP's last Florida poll, from Sept. 23rd, had a Hispanic breakdown of 49% Obama to 47% Romney, so they didn't notice any shift.

I'm not sure the poll you linked to is necessarily accurate, though; it looks like it oversampled Cubans significantly: 47% of the respondents.

Here's the most recent Florida poll I could find where they asked about Cuban ancestry (it was also done by live interviewers as opposed to robo-calls, dunno if that's the cause of the difference here). Across the last three runs of that Marist poll, Cuban's have always been just around ~35% of Hispanic voters.
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