Why do Democrat transplants to R states effect outcome?

[DC Al Fine]

That's a great question.

If I had to take a guess, I'd say the states that are trending R are more a result of existing voters trending R rather than transplants.

For example: Religious working class Catholics used to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, but are now generally trending R. Hence, places like Wisconsin and Ohio moving gradually towards the right.

[DC Al Fine]

That's a great question.

If I had to take a guess, I'd say the states that are trending R are more a result of existing voters trending R rather than transplants.

For example: Religious working class Catholics used to vote overwhelmingly Democrat, but are now generally trending R. Hence, places like Wisconsin and Ohio moving gradually towards the right.

Does Michigan fit the bill since the state's population is decreasing two-fold?  Who wants to live there anyway, besides cheap housing?

I'd say so. The massive amount of union workers leaving the state can't be hurting the Republican party, that's for sure.