PPP: Romney leads 49-47 in North Carolina

[Marston]

Just Tweeted. Romney up over Obama 49-47%. It's a two point gain for Romney from two weeks ago.

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[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Still in play.

[NVGonzalez]

Hmm... not bad. Still winnable but not needed. I'd rather lock up Ohio for good and make Romney play for FL.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I expected a lot worse... but I await the descent of Cliffy.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm really interested to see what the PPP national poll for this week says.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Winnable hypothetically, but Obama should pull out ads and have the grassroots there keep it as tight as possible. Ohio and Virginia are more critical at the moment.

[philly09]

From PPP Twitter

Romney's gains in NC and VA since the debate- 2 pts in each- smaller than most other states due to large nonwhite population

Most of Obama's post-debate erosion of support has been with white voters, so the effect isn't as strong in really racially diverse states

[Minnesota Mike]

Winnable hypothetically, but Obama should pull out ads and have the grassroots there keep it as tight as possible. Ohio and Virginia are more critical at the moment.

Why? It's not like Obama is out of money, he raised a $180 mill last month and is sure to raise $100 mill +  this month to. 

[Reds4]

PPP has shown tied or one point margin almost every time... not surprised Romney's lead is small in a PPP North Carolina poll.

[Likely Voter]

National Journal has an interesting article on how  Team Obama are essentially just trolling Romney in NC.

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http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-s-north-carolina-ads-highlight-romney-dilemma-20121012

[pa2011]

Bad poll for Romney, means, at least in PPP polling, he's still likely losing Virginia.

[wan]

Just Tweeted. Romney up over Obama 49-47%. It's a two point gain for Romney from two weeks ago.

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Bad news for Romney. If NC is just 2 points just imagine how close Virginia is.

[philly09]

Obama's NC approval is 48/50, little different from 48/49 2 weeks ago. Romney gain has more to do w/ Romney than Obama:

The full poll has been posted online.

[philly09]

Romney's up 30 pts with white voters in NC, 63/33. That's about the magic number GOP candidates need to win in NC:

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: North Carolina President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-14

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[philly09]

Besides Romney's nearly 2:1 support with white voters, other key to lead in NC is 54/40 advantage with independents:

Obama up with voters under 65 (49/47) and women (50/46) in NC. Romney up more with seniors (58/40) and men (53/43):

NC voters think Biden won the debate 46/42. But still like Ryan (48/45 favorability) better than Biden (47/47):

[Devils30]

Obama needs the 95-5 margin with blacks he had in 2008. Of course very possible he gets fewer whites than this poll.

[Cliffy]

Romney is winning the crossover vote by 8 and Independents by 14. Ok...

and this is based on a turnout similar to 08, ok if you believe that...

[Ty440]

Obama needs the 95-5 margin with blacks he had in 2008. Of course very possible he gets fewer whites than this poll.

Obama Is VERY  close to the amount of white votes needed here, he needs about  34% to pull even, If more Latinos turn out to vote than 2008, and he gets that big black vote like  he got in 2008, it could be a shocker.

If I'm the Romney camp I'm VERY  concerned , this could be the Indiana of 2012.

[philly09]

Obama needs the 95-5 margin with blacks he had in 2008. Of course very possible he gets fewer whites than this poll.

Obama Is VERY  close to the amount of white votes needed here, he needs about  34% to pull even, If more Latinos turn out to vote than 2008, and he gets that big black vote like  he got in 2008, it could be a shocker.

If I'm the Romney camp I'm VERY  concerned , this could be the Indiana of 2012.

how could that be if Romney is pulling 30% of the white vote.

[Ty440]

Obama needs the 95-5 margin with blacks he had in 2008. Of course very possible he gets fewer whites than this poll.

Obama Is VERY  close to the amount of white votes needed here, he needs about  34% to pull even, If more Latinos turn out to vote than 2008, and he gets that big black vote like  he got in 2008, it could be a shocker.

If I'm the Romney camp I'm VERY  concerned , this could be the Indiana of 2012.

how could that be if Romney is pulling 30% of the white vote.

2008 Exit Poll  NC

White
Obama 35%
McCain 64%

72% of the the electorate

PPP NC Poll 10/14/12

White
Obama 33%
Romney 63%
Undecided 4%

? of  electorate  (That's the big question)

Now you see how close Obama is?

[J. J.]

PPP has a slight D lean, so I'd expect to be slightly better for Romney.  His only possible southern win is in VA. 

He should pull out here as well and concentrate on VA and OH.  Maybe just OH.

[Marston]

PPP has a slight D lean, so I'd expect to be slightly better for Romney.  His only possible southern win is in VA. 

He should pull out here as well and concentrate on VA and OH.  Maybe just OH.

Horrible idea.

The probable media narrative would negate any benefit that would have if Obama did what you're suggesting. The MSM would go on and on about how Obama is collapsing, and it would only feed into this current defeatist hysteria that, to the annoyance of many, seems to have gripped some Democrats.

[J. J.]

PPP has a slight D lean, so I'd expect to be slightly better for Romney.  His only possible southern win is in VA. 

He should pull out here as well and concentrate on VA and OH.  Maybe just OH.

Horrible idea.

The probable media narrative would negate any benefit that would have if Obama did what you're suggesting. The MSM would go on and on about how Obama is collapsing, and it would only feed into this current defeatist hysteria that, to the annoyance of many, seems to have gripped some Democrats.

They will anyhow. 

Obama is good at throwing things under buses; NC and FL are no exceptions. 

[Marston]

PPP has a slight D lean, so I'd expect to be slightly better for Romney.  His only possible southern win is in VA. 

He should pull out here as well and concentrate on VA and OH.  Maybe just OH.

Horrible idea.

The probable media narrative would negate any benefit that would have if Obama did what you're suggesting. The MSM would go on and on about how Obama is collapsing, and it would only feed into this current defeatist hysteria that, to the annoyance of many, seems to have gripped some Democrats.

They will anyhow. 

Obama is good at throwing things under buses; NC and FL are no exceptions. 

Regardless, Obama and Co. have already investing millions of dollars in building campaign infrastructure (field offices, staff, GOTV) that it's impossible to now just throw that all away. Obama probably wouldn't gain much of anything by reallocating resources from NC and FL to OH, anyways. Look at Romney in Ohio. You can only spend so much money in one state and expect results. He's throwing tens of millions of dollars a week into the state and it's barely moving the needle.