VA/IA, ARG: Romney in the lead and tied

[krazen1211]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/VA12.html

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/IA12.html

Virginia:

Romney 48
Obama 47


Iowa:

tied at 48



Good news. Especially in Iowa

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

You're right, coming from ARG this is good news.

[DrScholl]

ARG leans right. If this is the best they can do for Romney, then he must not be sealing the deal in those states.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Virginia President by ARG on 2012-10-14

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, I: 1%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Iowa President by ARG on 2012-10-14

Summary: D: 48%, R: 48%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

ARG leans right. If this is the best they can do for Romney, then he must not be sealing the deal in those states.

ARG just sucks, period.

[President von Cat]

If this is the best ARG has got, I'd say VA and IA are lean Obama, likely Obama, respectively.

[Cliffy]

How bout a breakdown on why these polls suck?

[President von Cat]

I want to know why there has been such a dearth of good polling in the weeks since the debate.

Asides from the Pew poll, we have had a relentless stream of Republican leaning crap polls like ARG and Gravis, all of which have largely continued Romney's momentum. Even the Obama-leaning polls like the Rocky Mountain, Zogby, and Politico ones have been garbage. There has been (R)asmussen too, but I just don't trust them. We have seen just a little bit of PPP, hardly any WaPo polls, but no Marist, no Quinnipiac or any of the other more reputable outfits.

How bout a breakdown on why these polls suck?

ARG stands for All Republicans (are) Great

[Oakvale]

How bout a breakdown on why these polls suck?

Well, they're ARG polls...

[dirks]

well, Romney desperately needs Iowa if he wants to run the table without Ohio.

Iowa was +9 for Obama in 08, so definitely good news for Romney

Virginia will be neck and neck to the end

[Devils30]

This Virginia poll simply doesn't add up. How can Obama get 40% of the white vote and lose the state? He won 39% in 2008 with the same demographics and won the state by 6.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#VAP00p1

Results like these honestly make me wonder if ARG is making everything up.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Didn't ARG have a great record during the 2010 midterms? I know their reputation, but I feel like we all crap on every poll these days (PPP, Ras, even Mason-Dixon). Someone has to be accurate

[Devils30]

Common sense tells us Obama CANNOT lose virginia if he's above something like 37% with whites, if he's at 40% the state will be called before 10:30 pm!

[Speed of Sound]

Didn't ARG have a great record during the 2010 midterms? I know their reputation, but I feel like we all crap on every poll these days (PPP, Ras, even Mason-Dixon). Someone has to be accurate

No, only a bunch of flooded in election time trolls "trash" PPP an Ras. Most admit that they each have House bias, but you can track their works and draw reliable lines to judge a race's progress. Few respectable posters disregard PPP and Ras. I feel like Mason-Dixon is a middle-line pollster, but I don't remember enough about them to say. The problem is that all these new posters (or worse, ones that have been doing this stuff for ages) just scream "trash" whenever it shows their side not winning, while there happen to be polls that we all actually scream "trash" at because they are, in fact, trash * cough* ARG/WAA/Zogby/YouGov/TinySchoolOrNewspaperOrParty-BoughtFirmYou'veNeverHeardOf *cough* It does become very confusing.