ARG, national: Romney in the lead

[krazen1211]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NA12-5.html

Romney 48
Obama 47



Solid news.

[President von Cat]

Within margin of error.

Romney not breaking 50%, nor for that matter even getting beyond his usual 48%-47%.

Republican leaning pollster.

Solid news.. for Obama.

[Oakvale]

Nothing ARG can be considered "solid news".

[J. J.]

Within margin of error.

Romney not breaking 50%, nor for that matter even getting beyond his usual 48%-47%.

Republican leaning pollster.

Solid news.. for Obama.

ARG isn't a great pollster, but I wouldn't say that it is R.

Obama, after 4 years in office, is under 50% and trailing Romney.

PPP interestingly has a D "house effect."  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

[Speed of Sound]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NA12-5.html

Romney 48
Obama 47



Solid news.

You won't ever attempt to be a mature contributor to the polling here, will you? That's a bit out of your grasp, I suppose. It's just "post everything where R=>+0, add "lolololawesomegreatnewswe'rethebestlol" to it ignore the rest", eh?

Post the damn thing. Then add some real analysis or interesting point, or leave it alone and post it.

That said, ARG is largely crap, so I don't really care. Anyone got the numbers from any previous ARG national for comparison?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is the same number as last week... but Romney had a 3% point lead in early September here.

That poll had some very weird numbers, it had an almost identical breakdown and margin between AA and white voters from 2008... but Romney over-performed among Latinos. Honestly when I see a Romney over-performance among Latinos... I'm INSTANTLY suspicious.

I don't think this is an issue of R or D, they're just not very good.

[J. J.]

This is the same number as last week... but Romney had a 3% point lead in early September here.

That poll had some very weird numbers, it had an almost identical breakdown and margin between AA and white voters from 2008... but Romney over-performed among Latinos. Honestly when I see a Romney over-performance among Latinos... I'm INSTANTLY suspicious.

I'm always worried about inaccurate counting of Latinos, but I think we're seeing this across polls.

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Ditto.