PA, Muhlenberg: Casey in the lead

[krazen1211]

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-campaigns-tighten-in-pennsylvania-20121015,0,2959673.story


Casey 41
Smith 39




Not too shabby.

[Eraserhead]

Casey is a joke.

[Keystone Phil]

Bwahahahaha!

Wait. Wait.

Bwahahahahaha! Unbelievable!

[NVGonzalez]

Wait, what?!

[tmthforu94]

Unbelievable that there's such a high level of undecideds.

I've had suspicions about this race for a while, and this poll confirms it. Great news!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

This doesn't surprise me. Though Casey should be doing much better than Obama in the state (he has more appeal to blue-collars and Tom Smith is a bad candidate on paper), he's barely run a campaign while Tom Smith has been everywhere. Assuming Casey bothers to fight, he'll win, but there's a shot at an upset.

[Phony Moderate]

It's been said for a while now that Casey is a bit of a joke. I guess it's being confirmed.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey's campaign has been saying the previous polls were Republican polls and couldn't be trusted. Those polls showed a four to six point race. Can't wait to hear the excuse they come up with for an independent poll that shows it as a two point contest!

[Brittain33]

If this race ends up close, you'll have earned a Congrats, Phil for watching it while everyone else wrote Smith off...

[Keystone Phil]

If this race ends up close, you'll have earned a Congrats, Phil for watching it while everyone else wrote Smith off...

I don't deserve a "Congrats, Phil!" at all on this. My take has been almost identical to nearly everyone else's. Tm would deserve credit for calling this as a sleeper.

[tmthforu94]

If this race ends up close, you'll have earned a Congrats, Phil for watching it while everyone else wrote Smith off...

I don't deserve a "Congrats, Phil!" at all on this. My take has been almost identical to nearly everyone else's. Tm would deserve credit for calling this as a sleeper.

Thank you. I do have evidence from this spring which shows that I thought this would be a sleeper race, and evidence from a while back, before these margin of error polls, where I predicted Smith would win this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Muhlenberg consistently showed a much closer race than was the reality in 2006, but, yeah, Casey has certainly been sleeping at the wheel.

[Franzl]

Wait a minute....is Casey actually in danger?

[BM]

What would it look like with a more credible challenger? Jeez.

[Lief 🗽]

Ugh. The deal was that Democrats wouldn't care that you're way too right-wing for a Democratic Senator from Pennsylvania, and in exchange you'd make sure this seat was safe and we'd never have to worry about it. Good job Bob! Christ.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Muhlenberg College on 2012-10-14

Summary: D: 41%, R: 39%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Niemeyerite]

People, Toomey (a good candidate) won by 2 points against Sestak (not a bad candidate, but he barely won the primary running as a left-wing democrat) in 2010.
 Do you really believe that casey (a moderate incumbent) is just barely edging Smith, a mediocre, tea party member candidate? I think PPP poll with Casey leading by 11 is closer to the Real World.

And I know Sestak campaigned while Casey hasn't campaigned at all, but, still, 2010 was a very republican year. I don't buy this poll.

[Keystone Phil]

People, Toomey (a good candidate) won by 2 points against Sestak (not a bad candidate, but he barely won the primary running as a left-wing democrat) in 2010.
 Do you really believe that casey (a moderate incumbent) is just barely edging Smith, a mediocre, tea party member candidate? I think PPP poll with Casey leading by 11 is closer to the Real World.

And I know Sestak campaigned while Casey hasn't campaigned at all, but, still, 2010 was a very republican year. I don't buy this poll.

But Sestak was a very appealing candidate personally and had people fired up/ran an incredible campaign. Plus, Toomey was a good candidate and ran a flawless campaign but Sestak hit him hard on his negatives.

That said, yes, you're right: Casey is still favored but this has become a race now. That's the point. This was always supposed to be a guaranteed win for the Dems, one of those "We definitely don't have to worry about spending time, money, energy there" types of race. That's not the case.

By the way, see my PA 2012 thread to see why the news got even worse for Casey today. That's perhaps the biggest story of the day...

[Hash]

Wow, Casey is either a totally useless failure or a moron.