USA Today/Gallup Battleground poll, Romney +4

[Cliffy]

Romney 51-46  50-46, updated

updated: Obama 49-48 women

Decent poll for Romney.

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Maybe he reads this site............

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http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/15/swing-states-poll-women-voters-romney-obama/1634791/

[krazen1211]

Fabulous news!

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

LOL big ass no !

[Brittain33]

The gap between RV and LV is nuts. I'm not saying it's not valid, but Obama is leading among RV by +2.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nobody takes the battleground polls seriously... but go nuts.

[Yank2133]

I see Gallup hasn't improved it's LV screen from 2010...........

[J. J.]

As valid as that ABC/WP poll.

[Oakvale]

I hate these multiple "swing state" polls. Also, LOL.

[Cliffy]

I see Gallup hasn't improved it's LV screen from 2010...........

what do you think turnout will be this time?

[Likely Voter]

I think it's pretty clear that this election is very close and so we are now down to which polling do you trust. If this poll is right, Romney is winning. If WaPo or PPP's state polls are right, Obama is winning.  Even today's Politico poll can be read either way to interpret who is winning.

As for this forum, there does seem to be a tendency for people to believe the polls they want to believe and dismiss the polls they dont like. Some are worse about this than others.

Personally I dont know what to believe anymore, I think the race is truly a coin flip at this point and a lot depends on tomorrows debate. The one reason I lean to thinking Obama has an advantage is the state polling seems to still favor him, but its close enough that it might not be right. This poll for example could cast some doubt on the state polling although I prefer actual state polling instead of this group of state polling.

[King]

Grouped swing state polls are pretty silly.  1000 people in 12 states... the subsamples are going to be less than 80 people.  It wouldn't surprise me if the subsamples had wacky crap like Obama winning 80% in New Mexico and Romney up 20 points in Michigan.

[courts]

Nobody takes the battleground polls seriously... but go nuts.

[DrScholl]

These swing state polls aren't much good no matter who they favor.

[Lief 🗽]

This poll would be valuable... if we didn't have hundreds of polls of the actual individual swing states. If you look at the polls of the states themselves, there's absolutely no way they show a Romney +5 advantage (they also don't show an Obama +6 or whatever the WaPo poll said advantage). So you can either say that this one poll is wrong, and the rest are right. Or you can say that all the state polls are wrong, but this one poll is correct.

And, as has already been pointed out, Gallup's likely voter screen is historically not very good at all.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The USA Today/Gallup poll showed McCain 12 points ahead of Obama in 2008.
Nuff said.

[ajb]

As the OP noted, this poll was conducted Oct. 5-11. So kind of stale at this point.

[pepper11]

Victory is close!

[Eraserhead]

Polls of multiple swing states lumped together at once = garbage.

On top of that, the poll was done entirely before the VP debate.

[Cliffy]

Polls of multiple swing states lumped together at once = garbage.

On top of that, the poll was done entirely before the VP debate.

ummm so.  You really think you're going to get a bump from Biden's performance? Really?

[Cliffy]

That's gotta suck.


[quote]"In every poll, we've seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney" since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. "Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them."

[/quote]

[Eraserhead]

Polls of multiple swing states lumped together at once = garbage.

On top of that, the poll was done entirely before the VP debate.

ummm so.  You really think you're going to get a bump from Biden's performance? Really?

Me personally? Probably not.

[Cliffy]

comforting, lol.

Polls of multiple swing states lumped together at once = garbage.

On top of that, the poll was done entirely before the VP debate.

ummm so.  You really think you're going to get a bump from Biden's performance? Really?

Me personally? Probably not.

[J. J.]

That's gotta suck.

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That actually corresponds to the CNN focus group results from the first debate.