Romney +22 in Rural Swing State Counties

[cinyc]

Center for Rural Strategies Poll of Rural Counties in Swing States
Romney 59% (+5 from September poll)
Obama 37% (-3)
Johnson 3%
Undecided 1%

October 9-11; 600 LV; MoE +/-4%

States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin

A different kind of poll than what we're used to seeing, for sure.  The poll was conducted by a Democratic (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research) and Republican (North Star Opinion Research) pollster, with funding from the Carnegie Corporation.

According to the article, Obama is trailing his 2008 showing in the rural swing counties by 10 points.

[LiberalJunkie]

Obama doesn't need Rural counties to win.

[Vosem]

Obama doesn't need Rural counties to win.

Obama can't lose them by too much or he'll lose the states they're in -- that's a fact. Keep in mind the trendlines -- he's doing 10 points worse than in 2008.

[krazen1211]

Great news for Ohio and Wisconsin.

[Skill and Chance]

How Romney can have more rural appeal than McCain is just beyond me.

[J. J.]

Really interesting.

[pbrower2a]

Obama doesn't need Rural counties to win.

Obama can't lose them by too much or he'll lose the states they're in -- that's a fact. Keep in mind the trendlines -- he's doing 10 points worse than in 2008.

Nevada has a very small proportion of rural citizens. Colorado? The Front Range cities and their suburbs overpower the thinly-settled population of ranch country in the east. New Hampshire has its population concentrated along the I-93 corridor. Most people in Florida do not live on a ranch, farm, or orange grove.  Ohio has the preponderance of its population in small-to-giant urban areas.

 

[LastVoter]

White working class is racist, you see.

[J. J.]

Obama doesn't need Rural counties to win.

Obama can't lose them by too much or he'll lose the states they're in -- that's a fact. Keep in mind the trendlines -- he's doing 10 points worse than in 2008.

Nevada has a very small proportion of rural citizens. Colorado? The Front Range cities and their suburbs overpower the thinly-settled population of ranch country in the east. New Hampshire has its population concentrated along the I-93 corridor. Most people in Florida do not live on a ranch, farm, or orange grove.  Ohio has the preponderance of its population in small-to-giant urban areas.

 

PA has a number of them.

[memphis]

Perhaps we should release a poll of just Denver CO , Clark NV, Cuyahoga OH, and Fairfax VA.

[J. J.]

Perhaps we should release a poll of just Denver CO , Clark NV, Cuyahoga OH, and Fairfax VA.

Maybe they are 12 points lower than 2008 too.

[Lief 🗽]

Perhaps we should release a poll of just Denver CO , Clark NV, Cuyahoga OH, and Fairfax VA.

Maybe they are 12 points lower than 2008 too.

Unlikely, Obama's seen no drop-off in black support and seems to be doing better with Hispanics.

[J. J.]

Perhaps we should release a poll of just Denver CO , Clark NV, Cuyahoga OH, and Fairfax VA.

Maybe they are 12 points lower than 2008 too.

Unlikely, Obama's seen no drop-off in black support and seems to be doing better with Hispanics.

Well, there are white people in the cities and Hispanics are not showing an increase.

[memphis]

The rural midwest was a bit of a fluke in 2008 due to the ethanol subsidy, which McCain, rightfully, was against. I doubt it will matter in any state other than Indiana or maybe Iowa.

[opebo]

How Romney can have more rural appeal than McCain is just beyond me.

It isn't that he has appeal, it is that these voters are more anti-Obama - reverting to norm in a more 'normal election'.  The 2008 election was unusual, and quite a few racist rural voters voted Obama because of a very fresh feeling of revulsion over what Bush had done.  I actually met some of these people, and the ones I met actually cared about the issue of Bush's wars - many of them had sons or other relatives in the military and really felt ill-treated and ill-used.

[morgieb]

How Romney can have more rural appeal than McCain is just beyond me.

He doesn't, just Obama is not just unknown like he was in 2008.