WI: Marquette Law School: Obama+1

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2012-10-16

Summary: D: 49%, R: 48%, I: 1%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[krazen1211]

Among those who watched Denver debate, Romney up 50-48. Among those who didn't, Obama up 50-42.



Hehe. Romney is surging.

[Eraserhead]

Maybe Romney will give up on Ohio and make a hard play for Wisconsin last minute.

[Gass3268]

It should be interesting to see how last night effected the race in the state. I expect Obama to move up a couple points after last night and the next debate.

[dirks]

It should be interesting to see how last night effected the race in the state. I expect Obama to move up a couple points after last night and the next debate.

Obama will not get a debate bounce

[pa2011]

What this sort of tells me, even with Romney post-first-debate "surge," he still couldn't pull ahead in Wisconsin, even with Ryan on the ticket. You  may disagree with this analysis, but it just sort of seems Wisconsin is out of reach for Romney, barring a complete Obama collapse nationally (which didn't happen last night).

[Likely Voter]

Maybe seeing their boy Ryan in his debate gave the cheese heads a bump in his direction

[dirks]

Well, if Romney can pick up Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado, then he doesn't need Ohio

though if he sneaks NH then he doesn't need Iowa, margin of victory would be slightly smaller

though this scenario has him winning FLA, NC, and VA

[Gass3268]

What this sort of tells me, even with Romney post-first-debate "surge," he still couldn't pull ahead in Wisconsin, even with Romney on the ticket. You  may disagree with this analysis, but it just sort of seems Wisconsin is out of reach for Romney, barring a complete Obama collapse nationally (which didn't happen last night).

Exactly, Romeny got as close as he can and it still wasn't enough. Except Obama to go back up by 3-4 points.

[NVGonzalez]

Among those who watched Denver debate, Romney up 50-48. Among those who didn't, Obama up 50-42.



Hehe. Romney is was surging.

Fixed

[dirks]

What this sort of tells me, even with Romney post-first-debate "surge," he still couldn't pull ahead in Wisconsin, even with Ryan on the ticket. You  may disagree with this analysis, but it just sort of seems Wisconsin is out of reach for Romney, barring a complete Obama collapse nationally (which didn't happen last night).

huh? Obama led by as many as 14 a month ago. This is a massive, ongoing surge

[dirks]

Among those who watched Denver debate, Romney up 50-48. Among those who didn't, Obama up 50-42.



Hehe. Romney is was surging.

Fixed

you tried to convince yourself there was a biden bump...there wasn't

there won't be an obama bump for that debate either

you can't just lay down a false boundary and say "well romney gained 14 points but we're still up 1, this is the closest he'll get"

Obama up 7 in WI this is the closest, Romney will get. Obama up 5, Romney has maxed out. Obama up 2...Romney just can't overtake him. Obama up 1, Romney just can't do it.

says who? panicking liberals? This state should've been in the bag. Obama is sinking, Romney is gaining, that's the narrative.

[opebo]

you can't just lay down a false boundary and say "well romney gained 14 points but we're still up 1, this is the closest he'll get"

says who? panicking liberals? This state should've been in the bag. Obama is sinking, Romney is gaining, that's the narrative.

The 14 point lead for Obama was the anomaly, dirks.  We're back at 'normal' - in most recent polls 50-51 Obama, 47-49 Romney, which is actually not as close as it was back at the end of August or early Sept.

[Cliffy]

Among those who watched Denver debate, Romney up 50-48. Among those who didn't, Obama up 50-42.



Hehe. Romney is was surging.

Fixed

you tried to convince yourself there was a biden bump...there wasn't

there won't be an obama bump for that debate either

you can't just lay down a false boundary and say "well romney gained 14 points but we're still up 1, this is the closest he'll get"

Obama up 7 in WI this is the closest, Romney will get. Obama up 5, Romney has maxed out. Obama up 2...Romney just can't overtake him. Obama up 1, Romney just can't do it.

says who? panicking liberals? This state should've been in the bag. Obama is sinking, Romney is gaining, that's the narrative.

Nice call out. 

I really hope people on here believe what they are saying, it's going to be meltdown city.

[DrScholl]

If he wasn't winning the state after the first debate, it's not viable path to 270 for Romney. The math pretty much stays the same.

That said, there is no way that Obama doesn't recover some points after last night's debate, he was already recovering some before the debate, so all he needs is about a point or two.

[Likely Voter]

NBC will be releasing 3 new state polls at the end of the week including WI, so we will have another data point to see if there is a trend in WI

[krazen1211]

you tried to convince yourself there was a biden bump...there wasn't

there won't be an obama bump for that debate either

Of those who watched the debate, 42 percent thought Biden did the better job, while 51 percent thought Ryan did better.



Remember when the liberals said Biden won the debate? Not in Wisconsin!

[NVGonzalez]

Among those who watched Denver debate, Romney up 50-48. Among those who didn't, Obama up 50-42.



Hehe. Romney is was surging.

Fixed

you tried to convince yourself there was a biden bump...there wasn't

there won't be an obama bump for that debate either

you can't just lay down a false boundary and say "well romney gained 14 points but we're still up 1, this is the closest he'll get"

Obama up 7 in WI this is the closest, Romney will get. Obama up 5, Romney has maxed out. Obama up 2...Romney just can't overtake him. Obama up 1, Romney just can't do it.

says who? panicking liberals? This state should've been in the bag. Obama is sinking, Romney is gaining, that's the narrative.

Nice call out. 

I really hope people on here believe what they are saying, it's going to be meltdown city.

I think you are confusing me with someone else, I never talked about a Biden bump or anything, I do think however Romney has peaked and he will fall very slowly until election day. I'd say wait till Friday to see if you are right, however this poll actually has Thompson up which is something I am not buying considering how awful of a campaign he has ran. The narrative however now has switched this morning to how Obama recovered in this debate and he is back so I mean, I really think your assertion will look silly in the next two weeks.

[Eraserhead]

you tried to convince yourself there was a biden bump...there wasn't

there won't be an obama bump for that debate either

Of those who watched the debate, 42 percent thought Biden did the better job, while 51 percent thought Ryan did better.



Remember when the liberals said Biden won the debate? Not in Wisconsin!

Umm, Ryan is from Wisconsin. That may have helped him out there just a little.

[Devils30]

We can't dismiss this poll, just add it into the batch with the rest of them. That said, you'd think Romney would be trying harder in WI if it was really this close.

[J. J.]

Marquette has been all over the place this year.

[Devils30]

Yeah, they did nail the recall though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think it's more that WI has been all over the place this year...

[Brittain33]

Same poll has Thompson +1.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I tend to think Wisconsin will come home to the Dems in the end.  Anyone remember '04?  Many had Wisconsin in the Solid Bush column for quite a while.  I remember he was up by 10 in some polls. 

Wisconsin is dicey... Ryan's constituency is already pretty hard-right, but you gotta think the vote's going to be driven up out there.