Bush vs Obama 2004
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  Bush vs Obama 2004
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Author Topic: Bush vs Obama 2004  (Read 2491 times)
tonyreyes89
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« on: October 18, 2012, 01:17:13 AM »

Same things happen from 2000 onward, Obama's speeches electrify the base and he manages to win the Dem nomination in comparison to the bland Kerry. How do you guys see it? Discuss with maps.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2012, 09:40:28 AM »

A liberal state Senator from Illinois vs. a war President?

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Cryptic
Shadowlord88
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2012, 12:04:58 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 12:13:46 PM by Shadowlord88 »

Obama is not winning the nomination when he's still only a State Senator, speech or no speech. 

If running as a State Senator and somehow (don't know how) gets the nomination: 



Obama: 150
Bush: 388

A state senator will not be taken seriously and Bush will probably win just about every state he could conceivably win. 

For a more interesting scenario, let's assume Obama got elected to the US Senate earlier. 



Obama: 289
Bush: 249

Obama will inspire the Democratic base more than Kerry.  If the message of change is also tied into better management of the war, it can also appeal to moderates.  The race will still be close as some moderates will still be drawn to Bush due to the opinion on the Iraq War still being divided and some states like Virginia and North Carolina will be more Republican in '04 than they were in '08.  Still, I think he can win it if he is a national politician by 2004, especially if he has a better campaign staff than Kerry.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2012, 04:25:32 PM »

Obama would have gotten slaughtered. He was literally nothing in 2004 but a good speech deliverer.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2012, 11:07:03 PM »

A state senator getting the nomination would show a party in shambles. Obama would have been destroyed. Sadly.
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2012, 10:39:30 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2012, 10:45:51 AM by Mutthole Surfers »

This is what I am thinking


Bush 57
Obama 40
Nader 2





Senate
Democrats 42 Republicans 58

House
Democrats 189 Republicans 246
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badgate
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« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2012, 04:34:06 AM »

Say he had won that congressional race in 2000 or '98 or whatever, If he were in that position in 2004  I think he'd have a fighting chance
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #7 on: December 26, 2012, 04:46:11 AM »
« Edited: December 26, 2012, 04:50:11 AM by blagohair.com »

There was no senate election in IL in 2000, but there was in 1998.

From wiki:
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37 year old State Senator Barack Obama decides the enter the Democratic primary as many Democrats are seeking an alternative to Moseley Braun whose missteps have made her vulnerable.  He wins the primary and then beats Republican Peter Fitzgerald to become the the only African-American in the U.S. Senate.

In that case, yes, he would have a chance in '04.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2012, 04:36:48 PM »

I'm not sure he even carries IL - I doubt any state senators in any state have statewide name recognition.  He would be lucky to take Vermont, Rhode Island, and DC
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Enderman
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« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2013, 03:48:37 PM »

DC?
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2013, 08:28:24 PM »


DC goes Democrat no matter what.  I doubt it would flip even if the Republican candidate campaigned there.  And it would be pretty silly to try - for 3 electoral votes I'd rather just hold down the fort in any of the 50 states.  It would be almost as useful as campaigning in Puerto Rico.

Truly unfortunate but even some house districts are less competitive than DC
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dudeabides
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« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2013, 01:43:58 AM »

Bush/Cheney (R) 55% 344 EV
Obama/Gephardt (D) 44% 194 EV
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Lumine
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« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2013, 12:25:25 PM »

Hmmmm... What if Obama was the VP? That makes him an asset or even more of a liability?
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Enderman
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« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2013, 03:30:38 PM »


Oh I thought it was something else. Okay, I wonder what would have happened if Jeb won the nomination instead of George Bush in 2000
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Blackacre
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« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2013, 03:52:44 PM »

Hmmmm... What if Obama was the VP? That makes him an asset or even more of a liability?

an asset. That will let him turn his keynote speech from 2004 into his VP nomination speech, giving him the recognition that helped him 4 years later.
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Undecided Voter in the Midwest
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« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2013, 03:00:33 PM »

No maps, alas. Counting down til I get to 20 posts.

Anyway...

2004 with Obama as State Senator: No chance whatsoever. Obama wins CA, IL, DC, MD, NY and sweeps New England, but that's it. Bush wins 380-158.

2004 with Obama as incumbent US Senator: Closer but Bush still takes it. Obama picks up NJ, MN, WA, OR, and DE but still loses 334-204.

Thing is, given the political climate of '04, Kerry was probably the best nominee the Democrats could have run against Bush at that point. The main reason Bush won the election was because it was during wartime, and most Americans still had faith in Bush's ability to handle a major crisis. (Katrina didn't happen until '05.)

But in an alternate world where Katrina happened in '04 instead? I could see Obama possibly beating Bush there... maybe. Kerry would win for sure.
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