How will 3rd party candides fare this election?

[Spanish Moss]

Rasmussen reported yesterday (Oct 17) that about 1% are voting for "other," and 2% are undecided for the Presidential race. So, I wonder what you all think in terms of how third party candidates are going to do specifically this Presidential election, and in general.

Personally, seeing as it's a trend that a number of people who plan on voting third party cave in to the two parties when it comes to election day, my best guess is this - approximately .7% of the electorate will vote other than Obama and Romney.  Approximately .5% goes to Johnson, approximately .2% goes to Jill Stein, and all the other third party candidates combined get something around .01%.

Any thoughts on what it will be, or if it's possible that events could occur that would raise the number of those who will vote third party?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would say the only thing that could trigger higher third party votes in a situation like this... is probably an unmistakable landslide approaching.

Generally, a lot of people think, this vote is going to close, I don't want to 'waste' it on someone who doesn't have a hope in hell of winning. If it looks like a blowout... people are potentially more like to say "well, it doesn't matter, so I'll feel more comfortable voting xxx"

Otherwise it comes down to the candidate, their ability to fund-raise and how they fit into the circumstances.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Johnson has been more visible than any third-party since Nader. He probably won't hit 1%, but he can probably come close (.75ish?).

[Donerail]

I'd see Anderson/Goode getting much more than the .01% you cited as well, especially Goode.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I think third party candidates will do relatively well this year.  The left has plenty to be angry with Obama over, some on the right have a lack of trust in Romney, and those in the middle are  dissatisfied with both.  The direction of the country numbers have been bad for a long time, and movements such as the Paul campaign, Tea Party and Occupy are evidence of this dissatisfaction and looking outside the political establishment for answers. Both Romney and Obama also have prejudices to deal with.

I think Johnson will get anywhere from two-thirds to two percent; Stein will get half a percent or so; Goode will get about a quarter of a percent; and all others combined will get about two-tenths percent.  More than two percent total is as likely as less, but it will be less than three percent.

[Spanish Moss]

I think third party candidates will do relatively well this year.  The left has plenty to be angry with Obama over, some on the right have a lack of trust in Romney, and those in the middle are  dissatisfied with both.  The direction of the country numbers have been bad for a long time, and movements such as the Paul campaign, Tea Party and Occupy are evidence of this dissatisfaction and looking outside the political establishment for answers. Both Romney and Obama also have prejudices to deal with.

I think Johnson will get anywhere from two-thirds to two percent; Stein will get half a percent or so; Goode will get about a quarter of a percent; and all others combined will get about two-tenths percent.  More than two percent total is as likely as less, but it will be less than three percent.

For me, 1% would be a "win" for Jill Stein, but I don't see it happening.

[TheGlobalizer]

Johnson at 2% or so.  The rest nominal.  Johnson might sniff 10% in NM but I'd project closer to 6%.  Lots of ads, bumper stickers, etc. for him here, and his views are well-represented on local talk radio.

[Maxwell]

Johnson might surprise at 2% or more, if the Paul-lite crowd continues to be as frustrated at the debates as they should be.

I think Stein could get .5% or maybe somewhat more, but probably not Nader numbers.

Virgil Goode might get 0.9% in Virginia, that's it.

The rest are inconsequential, though Rocky Anderson might do okay in some more liberal places.

[morgieb]

Johnson will get the best libertarian result ever. Stein and Goode will probably get less than <1% but still not do too badly.

[SPC]

Third party results will be closer to 2004 than 2008, especially considering that Nader isn't running this year. I predict Johnson will get .5%, Stein will get .3%, Goode will get .1%, and .1% scattered among other third party candidates.