OH: Rasmussen: Obama still +1

[Miles]

Link.

Obama- 49%
Romney -48%

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Does this include people who have already voted? This is a vital question.

[Miles]

New Poll: Ohio President by Rasmussen on 2012-10-17

Summary: D: 49%, R: 48%, I: 1%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Umengus]

so no bounce, for now

[dirks]

nope, no bounce. But where is there for Obama to bounce in Ohio anyway. That state has hardened.

And the small amount of undecideds will wait until the last 3-4 days or so.

[pa2011]

Not so sure we will be seeing anymore "bounces." People refer to Romney's post-debate improvement as a "bounce," but that was more a natural tightening of the race, spurred on by Romney's peformance, that everyone expected in October anyway. Few expected a blow out this year given how polarized the county is,  and Romney's "bounce" was due in large part to natural parts of the GOP base finally coming home. And that is one reason Romney's "bounce" isn't fading. It was never really a bounce.

[afleitch]

It's been O+1 in Ohio since September IIRC with Rassmussen.

[Yank2133]

It's been O+1 in Ohio since September IIRC with Rassmussen.

Yeah, it is static which is good for Obama.

[Brittain33]

Frabjous news.

[Likely Voter]

Does anyone have the answer to the question about people who have already voted?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Does anyone have the answer to the question about people who have already voted?

Nothing in the release or his Methodolgy page says a thing about it.  I would imagine people who have already voted would be less likely to respond though. 

For what it's worth, these were the last 4 weekly polls in Ohio conducted by Rasmussen in 2008.

10/14 - tie
10/19 - McCain +2
10/26 - Obama +4
11/2 - tie

so he nailed it on October 26th, but the other 3 were pretty off... and if we know one thing Obama absolutely killed the early vote and ground game in 2008. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

PPP has about 20% of Ohio voters having already voted... and 75% for the President.  51-45 Romney for those who have not voted.  Romney needs to hit about 56% with the people who have not voted to eclipse Obama and carry Ohio.  There is nothing to suggest anything close to that is happening. 

Note that this poll was taken in the height of the Romney bounce, about 5 days ago. 

[Eraserhead]

Rasmussen has had about four or five Obama +1 polls in a row here.

[Cliffy]

Lol, Romney 3+ win, keep telling you.  Ohio tracks +2-3 republican nationally, that's been a trend for quite a while.  You think that just changes this year.  They did it in 08. Romney is already up 3 there comfortably. But by all means, print and save those PPP, Marist, etc polls.  Hopefully you guys have bird cages.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Lol, Romney 3+ win, keep telling you.  Ohio tracks +2-3 republican nationally, that's been a trend for quite a while.  You think that just changes this year.  They did it in 08. Romney is already up 3 there comfortably. But by all means, print and save those PPP, Marist, etc polls.  Hopefully you guys have bird cages.

...Ohio was marginally more Democratic than the nation as recently as 2004.

[J. J.]

This is really the one that we should be paying attention to, along with IA, WI, CO, and NH.