PPP Virginia -- Obama 49 Romney 48 (pre debate)

[pa2011]

But poll was conducted for League of Conservation Voters

http://http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/lcv-poll-of-virginia-kaine-up-obamaromney-tied-138871.html

[Reds4]

Good poll for Romney.. PPP has had Obama ahead more than this every other time lately I believe.

[pa2011]

Last PPP poll on Oct 8 had it a 3 point race in Virginia, Obama 50 Romney 47, so this is only a slight change.

[J. J.]

PPP has a slight D lean.  Romney is probably ahead in VA. 

[pa2011]

Don't see how you can say PPP has a slight D lean in Virginia when many of the independent media polls had shown bigger leads for Obama in Virginia than PPP ever did. Think last Washington Poll showed Obama up 8, and either the last Quinnipiac Poll or CBS poll showed Obama up 6. Romney may be ahead, or the race completely tied, but not sure how you can assume that just because PPP shows Obama up 1.

[Devils30]

PPP had 52-46 Obama in 2008, which they nailed completely just FYI

[Ljube]

PPP had 52-46 Obama in 2008, which they nailed completely just FYI

Dem turnout was high that year.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

PPP had 52-46 Obama in 2008, which they nailed completely just FYI

Yes.  They are probably the best pollster out there right now when it comes down to the final weeks.  Just about flirting with 50... the magic number. 

[J. J.]

Don't see how you can say PPP has a slight D lean in Virginia when many of the independent media polls had shown bigger leads for Obama in Virginia than PPP ever did. Think last Washington Poll showed Obama up 8, and either the last Quinnipiac Poll or CBS poll showed Obama up 6. Romney may be ahead, or the race completely tied, but not sure how you can assume that just because PPP shows Obama up 1.

Well, the guy who said it was Nate Silver.   

I actually think it is less than he says it is (+3 points), but I still think it is there. 

[pa2011]

Don't see how you can say PPP has a slight D lean in Virginia when many of the independent media polls had shown bigger leads for Obama in Virginia than PPP ever did. Think last Washington Poll showed Obama up 8, and either the last Quinnipiac Poll or CBS poll showed Obama up 6. Romney may be ahead, or the race completely tied, but not sure how you can assume that just because PPP shows Obama up 1.

Well, the guy who said it was Nate Silver.    

I actually think it is less than he says it is (+3 points), but I still think it is there.  

Nate Silver also said Rasmussen had a 3 point GOP lean. So I assume you are saying you are confident Obama is really up 4 points in Ohio? The truth of the matter is, we don't know, but can't pick and choose how you asses so-called partisan leans.

[GMantis]

He's most likely behind, but the state is by no means lost, unlike North Carolina and he's not apparently pulling resources from Virginia.

[J. J.]

Don't see how you can say PPP has a slight D lean in Virginia when many of the independent media polls had shown bigger leads for Obama in Virginia than PPP ever did. Think last Washington Poll showed Obama up 8, and either the last Quinnipiac Poll or CBS poll showed Obama up 6. Romney may be ahead, or the race completely tied, but not sure how you can assume that just because PPP shows Obama up 1.

Well, the guy who said it was Nate Silver.    

I actually think it is less than he says it is (+3 points), but I still think it is there.  

Nate Silver also said Rasmussen had a 3 point GOP lean. So I assume you are saying you are confident Obama is really up 4 points in Ohio? The truth of the matter is, we don't know, but can't pick and choose how you asses so-called partisan leans.

Actually, over the summer, he gave Rasmussen a 1.3 house effect.



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

If he is right, Romney is probably leading in VA by 2 points.  I don't PPP is that far off, however.

[Antonio the Sixth]

These numbers have weird. I've generally assumed that PPP and Rasmussen were both 2 points away from the consensus in either direction, but if any I'd say Rasmussen is farther off (though, TBF, this has changed since Romney's bounce).

[Cliffy]

What I've been saying all along, PPP is off by at least 3 points.