Republicans heavily overperforming in Ohio early voting

[krazen1211]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/republicans-point-to-early-vote-gains-in-ohio/

In Cuyahoga, Republicans only make up about 12% of registered voters. Ballot numbers through Tuesday of this week, however, signal that almost 22% of early voters in Cuyahoga are Republican.

GOP officials, though, say their absentee and in-person voting turnout in Franklin is coming along nicely. Republicans account for just 16.5% of registered voters in the county, but make up 28.6% of early voting activity so far.

Early vote numbers in key counties like Lucas, Hamilton, Butler, Clermont and Warren tell a similar story.




Good news for Mr. Romney.

[Lief 🗽]

oh god, not this again.

[Ty440]

And yet EVERY credible pollster has Romney down and gaining nada in Ohio.

[Yank2133]

oh god, not this again.

[DrScholl]

Just stop. This has gone beyond ridiculous.

[krazen1211]

And yet EVERY credible pollster has Romney down and gaining nada in Ohio.

That happens when you release skewed polls that don't line up with the facts on the ground.

[LiberalJunkie]

And yet EVERY credible pollster has Romney down and gaining nada in Ohio.

That happens when you release skewed polls that don't line up with the facts on the ground.

go to unskewed polls then..not here.

[J. J.]

Because of the way OH treats party registration, the numbers are not as impressive as they look.  That said, there probably is an increase in the percentage of the electorate that is R over 2008.  I don't know how much, but I'd guess about 2-4 points.

Is that reflected in the polls?  I don't know. 

[Ty440]

And yet EVERY credible pollster has Romney down and gaining nada in Ohio.

That happens when you release skewed polls that don't line up with the facts on the ground.

Is rassy skewed? I thought the righties  swore by him.

[wan]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/republicans-point-to-early-vote-gains-in-ohio/

In Cuyahoga, Republicans only make up about 12% of registered voters. Ballot numbers through Tuesday of this week, however, signal that almost 22% of early voters in Cuyahoga are Republican.

GOP officials, though, say their absentee and in-person voting turnout in Franklin is coming along nicely. Republicans account for just 16.5% of registered voters in the county, but make up 28.6% of early voting activity so far.

Early vote numbers in key counties like Lucas, Hamilton, Butler, Clermont and Warren tell a similar story.




Good news for Mr. Romney.

if you going to tell the story, tell the whole story.


Republicans point to early vote gains in Ohio

Posted by
CNN Political Reporter Peter Hamby
Middleburg Heights, Ohio (CNN) - They got smoked in the early voting game in 2008, but this time around Republicans are closing the gap with Democrats.

Most observers here expect the early vote to tilt toward President Barack Obama, as it did in 2008. The Obama campaign has worked overtime to get their supporters to vote early and successfully sued the Ohio secretary of state to keep early voting locations open through the weekend preceding Election Day.

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Since early and absentee voting began on October 2, more than 1.4 million Ohio voters have voted or requested an absentee ballot. Almost a third of Ohio voted early in 2008, and Democrats expect that number to be even higher in 2012.

But Republicans have polished their early vote operation since 2008.

Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22% - a dismal 20-point deficit that contributed to Sen. John McCain's defeat in Ohio.

Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29%.

Republicans are outperforming their voter registration in several of the state's biggest counties.

For instance, through Wednesday in Cuyahoga County, the largest county in the state and home to Democrat-heavy Cleveland, nearly a quarter million absentee ballots have been requested and some 80,000 have been returned. Those numbers strongly favor Democrats: 47,538 to 16,720 for Republicans. About 15,000 listed no party affiliation.

In Cuyahoga, Republicans only make up about 12% of registered voters. Ballot numbers through Tuesday of this week, however, signal that almost 22% of early voters in Cuyahoga are Republican.

Franklin County - which encompasses Columbus - trails Cuyahoga in absentee ballot requests but leads the state in the number of early in-person voters, according to the Columbus Dispatch. Registered Democrats voting early outnumbered Republicans by a 4-1 margin, the paper reported Thursday.

GOP officials, though, say their absentee and in-person voting turnout in Franklin is coming along nicely. Republicans account for just 16.5% of registered voters in the county, but make up 28.6% of early voting activity so far.

Early vote numbers in key counties like Lucas, Hamilton, Butler, Clermont and Warren tell a similar story.

Additionally, a Republican National Committee source told CNN that among early voters not identifying with any party, RNC modeling has tagged 30.5% as Romney supporters and 24.9% as Obama supporters.

If correct, that gives the GOP a 5.6-point edge among unaffiliated early and absentee voters.

Ohio Democrats wave off the Republican boasting, and not without good reason.

Voters in Ohio do not register by party in traditional fashion. Instead, voters are only identified as Republican or Democrat based on their participation in a primary, making it difficult to know just where early vote sympathies lie.

Republicans had a competitive presidential primary earlier this year. Democrats did not. Is it possible someone that a Democrat in Toledo registered as a Republican to vote for Romney over Rick Santorum last March, but is now supporting Obama? Absolutely. But this hypothetical Obama supporter's absentee ballot would be marked Republican.

The bottom line: Few in either party question the Obama campaign's sophisticated ground game and most expect Democrats to bank a ton of votes before Election Day. But Republicans have vastly improved their turnout effort in Ohio from the dog days of October 2008.

[SirMuxALot]

Bah, next I suppose you're going to tell us the outcome of the election will be decided by actual votes?  C'mon, the polls are science.  You can't argue with science.  They're more scientific than actual votes.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The 2012 forum is insufferable. I decided to post here recently and I'm already taking blood pressure medicine as a result.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The 2012 forum is insufferable. I decided to post here recently and I'm already taking blood pressure medicine as a result.

I agree... I'm thinking if we starve trolls and nutjobs from both sides, they might disappear from lack of attention.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The 2012 forum is insufferable. I decided to post here recently and I'm already taking blood pressure medicine as a result.

I agree... I'm thinking if we starve trolls and nutjobs from both sides, they might disappear from lack of attention.

This is the first year I've experienced both sides blatantly disregarding facts that are right in front of them.

As for this thread: Republicans ALWAYS vote early. The fact they are this year means nothing except this will likely be a close election, a fact we already knew.

[krazen1211]

And yet EVERY credible pollster has Romney down and gaining nada in Ohio.

That happens when you release skewed polls that don't line up with the facts on the ground.

go to unskewed polls then..not here.

This is not a poll. This is a count of votes.

[krazen1211]

Because of the way OH treats party registration, the numbers are not as impressive as they look.  That said, there probably is an increase in the percentage of the electorate that is R over 2008.  I don't know how much, but I'd guess about 2-4 points.

Is that reflected in the polls?  I don't know. 

Yes, that's true. Suffice to say it is likely that Romney will get the vast bulk of the vote that voted in the GOP primary this year. That itself gets him 22% in the most Democratic county in the state.

[J. J.]

Because of the way OH treats party registration, the numbers are not as impressive as they look.  That said, there probably is an increase in the percentage of the electorate that is R over 2008.  I don't know how much, but I'd guess about 2-4 points.

Is that reflected in the polls?  I don't know. 

Yes, that's true. Suffice to say it is likely that Romney will get the vast bulk of the vote that voted in the GOP primary this year. That itself gets him 22% in the most Democratic county in the state.

I think that is pretty much the case and that the OH electorate will be more favorable to Romney than it was to McCain.

[Cliffy]

Romney will win Ohio by 3+

[All Along The Watchtower]

Romney will win Ohio by 3+

....lolno

[JFK-Democrat]

Romney will win Ohio by 3+

LoL...not gonna happen, no matter how hard Husted tries to steal it!

[Cliffy]

the firewall is more like a paper wall.

[King]

All this tells me is to expect less Republicans to show up in those two counties on Election Day as most have already voted.

Romney's in a real Catch-22 on early voting.  Obama used in 2008 to protect his victory and make sure that something late couldn't swing the election back to McCain as votes were already cast.   Romney could try to lock in his momentum right here with something similar, but at the same time, promotion of easy voting would drive up youth and minority turnout against him.

[Penelope]

Bah, next I suppose you're going to tell us the outcome of the election will be decided by actual votes?  C'mon, the polls are science.  You can't argue with science.  They're more scientific than actual votes.

SCIENCE

[NVGonzalez]

The citizens of bulls#!t mountain seem to have came to the Atlas forum.

[Eraserhead]

the firewall is more like a paper wall.

And yet Romney can't seem to grab a lead in Ohio no matter what.