Va, Ras: Romney in the lead

[krazen1211]

Romney 50
Obama 47


Good news. Last Ras poll was 49-47.

Bounce, baby, bounce!

[Mister Twister]

Big f***ing whoop. Obama doesn't need Virginia. You're still down in Ohio.

[Devils30]

Considering rasmussen's house effects it confirms that VA remains neck and neck.

[dirks]

Big f***ing whoop. Obama doesn't need Virginia. You're still down in Ohio.

But up in Pennsylvania

[J. J.]

VA is probably Romney.  A three point lead on Rasmussen is good.  The house effect is less than 3 points.

OH (or WI + IA + NH) remains the key.

[pepper11]

Will Romney move out of VA or Florida next?

[Knives]

R +9  ...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

R +9  ...

Let's not play the party ID game, guys. It doesnt matter.

And to romney being up in PA according to ONE republican leaning poll?  Wow.  Its nice to know you are just purposely trying to antagonize people, i thought you were serious there for a second.

[Skill and Chance]

Will Romney move out of VA or Florida next?

Bad idea.  If Obama retakes a national lead, the South is back in play.  He wouldn't want to be caught flat-footed.  Same reason Obama is in WI right now.

[pa2011]

Virginia is most likely tied, and no chance of Romney pulling out. When you consider Obama only needs 38 percent of the white vote to carry the state, this one is going down to the wire.

[NVGonzalez]

Well yeah, VA seems to be a true toss up now.

[timothyinMD]

1. Obama doesn't need Virginia to win

2. Obama will not win Virginia.  Romney by 4.5

3. Moving on...

[J. J.]

Virginia is most likely tied, and no chance of Romney pulling out. When you consider Obama only needs 38 percent of the white vote to carry the state, this one is going down to the wire.

I think you should look at some of those early voting numbers. 

In NC, black voters are running about the same.  R's are up about 7.5 points.  That 38% might be quite elusive. 

[pa2011]

Virginia is most likely tied, and no chance of Romney pulling out. When you consider Obama only needs 38 percent of the white vote to carry the state, this one is going down to the wire.

I think you should look at some of those early voting numbers. 

In NC, black voters are running about the same.  R's are up about 7.5 points.  That 38% might be quite elusive. 

Obama carried Virginia by 6 points in '08, and he only received 39 percent of the white vote.

[Umengus]

party id: R +2 (in 2008: D +6).

The problem with this poll is Romney winning men by 4 AND women by 3... I don't think so.

Romney wins independents by 4.

[pa2011]

And if you are trying to make some apples to apples comparison of the white vote in Virginia to the white vote in North Carolina, don't think you spent much in Arlington, Alexandria or Fairfax County, which is the largest jurisdiction in the state X2.  Whites in Northern Virginia lean far more left then even they do in the Raleigh area.  And that doesn't even take into account the strong pockets of very liberal white voters in Charlottesville Va and the city of Richmond.  Think Romney needs to be up at least 5 in NC before he could be reasonably comfortable he's also likely to win Virginia.

[Devils30]

Party ID of R+2 seems a bit off, D+3 in PPP's is more logical. Also, what % of the white vote does Obama have in this poll?

[Umengus]

Party ID of R+2 seems a bit off, D+3 in PPP's is more logical. Also, what % of the white vote does Obama have in this poll?

I don't know...

R+2 is possible but maybe a little optimist for Romney indeed.

[Cliffy]

Party ID of R+2 seems a bit off, D+3 in PPP's is more logical. Also, what % of the white vote does Obama have in this poll?

It'll be at least R+2, You'll be surprised, I won't.

[Umengus]

Party ID of R+2 seems a bit off, D+3 in PPP's is more logical. Also, what % of the white vote does Obama have in this poll?

It'll be at least R+2, You'll be surprised, I won't.

I hope so but I fear the obama ground game in nothern VA... He did a very good job in 2008.

[pa2011]

Party ID of R+2 seems a bit off, D+3 in PPP's is more logical. Also, what % of the white vote does Obama have in this poll?

It'll be at least R+2, You'll be surprised, I won't.

\

Really not likely, it was only R +4 in the 2009 Virginia governor's race, when it was well-documented GOP turnout was huge and Democratic turnout was abysmal in Virginia.

[J. J.]

Virginia is most likely tied, and no chance of Romney pulling out. When you consider Obama only needs 38 percent of the white vote to carry the state, this one is going down to the wire.

I think you should look at some of those early voting numbers. 

In NC, black voters are running about the same.  R's are up about 7.5 points.  That 38% might be quite elusive. 

Obama carried Virginia by 6 points in '08, and he only received 39 percent of the white vote.

And that 38% might be elusive. 

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Virginia is most likely tied, and no chance of Romney pulling out. When you consider Obama only needs 38 percent of the white vote to carry the state, this one is going down to the wire.

I think you should look at some of those early voting numbers. 

In NC, black voters are running about the same.  R's are up about 7.5 points.  That 38% might be quite elusive. 

Obama carried Virginia by 6 points in '08, and he only received 39 percent of the white vote.

And that 38% might be elusive. 

Not really. He's all but guaranteed the same amount of the black vote, and they're almost as fired up as they were in 2008. The share of the overall White vote will definitely fall this year in Virginia. Obama really only needs about 36-37 percent to win.