NH, PPP: Romney in the lead

[krazen1211]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

Romney 49
Obama 48

Good news!

[All Along The Watchtower]

A one-point lead?

Settle down.

[J. J.]

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

Romney 49
Obama 48

Good news!

Exceedingly good news, especially from PPP.  

[DrScholl]

A one-point lead?

Settle down.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

PPP polls have been way off in recent months.

PPP is basically a glorified Rasmussen.

[Fargobison]

Clearly no debate bounce for Obama....

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https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/259330576279015424

[Keystone Phil]

So this is after Obama's "crushing debate win?" Ouch.

[J. J.]

PPP polls have been way off in recent months.

PPP is basically a glorified Rasmussen.

Yes, they underestimate Republicans.  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

PPP polls have been way off in recent months.

PPP is basically a glorified Rasmussen.

Yes, they underestimate Republicans.  

No. They admitted having a Republican bias despite working for a Democratic blog.

[J. J.]

PPP polls have been way off in recent months.

PPP is basically a glorified Rasmussen.

Yes, they underestimate Republicans.  

No. They admitted having a Republican bias despite working for a Democratic blog.

Nate Silver noted a D +3 lean. 

[DrScholl]

New Hampshire was always one of the states that Romney had a good chance at, it's not like this would be an upset.

Obama is leading in Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, that gets him over the line right there.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama is leading in Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, that gets him over the line right there.

If he's leading in those states, we're not gonna see a 10-point swing to the GOP in NH.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While this is just one poll and hardly means all is lost in New Hampshire (and certainly not the entire election), I don't see how any Democrat can argue that this poll isn't worrisome.  I use the word worrisome, because although it isn't reason to panic, it is a sign that the debate simply stopped the bleeding rather than actually producing a bounce and that New Hampshire is probably (unless other polls reveal this one to be an outlier) probably a toss-up.  I still expect Obama to win here, but this poll is a troubling sign (to say the least).

[Wisconsin+17]

Welcome back, Phil!

[pa2011]

Nothing to argue about with this poll, but does this mean GOP posters are not going to argue with PPP numbers yesterday showing Obama up 3 in Colorado?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

PPP polls have been way off in recent months.

PPP is basically a glorified Rasmussen.

Yes, they underestimate Republicans.  

No. They admitted having a Republican bias despite working for a Democratic blog.

You know it's bad when J.J. comes out of the exchange looking like the non-hackish one  And I say that as someone who thinks PPP is generally pretty reliable.  

Bandit, I hate these numbers as much as any other Democrat, progressive, etc but you can't just shout bias whenever you don't like the numbers.  Rassmussen, ARG, Gravis, and WAA are Republican hack firms.  But PPP isn't and with all due respect, I doubt you'd be claiming it was if it showed Obama up 3-4 points.  It seems like since October began, there have been a number of posters on the 2012 board who have gone into "campaign mode" and act as though the only fair polls are the ones showing their candidate ahead.  Shedding one's objectivity like that won't change the results, it'll just set you up for disappointment.  Is it really too much to ask that people be objective the month before the election...wait don't answer that

[Dumbo]

New Hampshire was always one of the states that Romney had a good chance at, it's not like this would be an upset.

Obama is leading in Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, that gets him over the line right there.

277 incl. Iowa.

Obama doesn't need NH, what he need is

- Wisconsin
- Ohio
- Iowa or Nevada

NH he needs only when he looses in Wisconsin, then
he must win NH + Iowa + Nevada (and of course Ohio).
But it doesn't looks like he ist loosing Wisconsin so at the moment
NH polls are crap.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bandit, I hate these numbers as much as any other Democrat, progressive, etc but you can't just shout bias whenever you don't like the numbers.

Uh, PPP has actually admitted that their numbers lean Republican. These are their words, not mine.

[Cliffy]

Lol, you know it's bad when PPP is folding and you guys are suddenly not saying oh there as bad as Rasmussen........Man that was quick.  The double standards around here are rich.

[SPQR]

NH and Iowa going R...more like 2000 than 2004.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Krazen should change is name to "Good News!"

[Joe Republic]

Lol, you know it's bad when PPP is folding and you guys are suddenly not saying oh there as bad as Rasmussen........Man that was quick.  The double standards around here are rich.

Bandit speaks only for his delusional self.  Do not paint anybody else with the same brush.  Same for opebo, incidentally.

[Devils30]

And if Obama was up 49-48 does it really make a difference? NH and IA polls confirm what both sides think at this point, total coin flips.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The problem for Obama is, the economy is still the top issue in this election. He may have won the debate last week, but voters still said Romney won the economic portion. Hence why we see no bounce for Obama, as I expected.

[pepper11]

Good thing Obama put in such a great debate performance. He might be down 5 without his bounce.