State of the Senate right now

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's actually looking pretty good for the Dems, but very precarious.

There are 11 highly competitive seats:
Dem held: GA, NC, SC, FL, LA, SD
GOP held: IL, OK, CO, AK, PA
The Dems need 2 pick-ups to gain control, unless Kerry wins and MA elects a Dem in the special election, in which case they need 1 pick-up.

Here's how I see each seat:

Dem held seats:

GA: Likely Republican, no matter the candidates.  Basically cancels out Illinois.

NC: A toss-up all the way.

SC: Lean GOP is Beasley is their nominee; Toss-up
otherwise....I'll give it to the GOP.

FL: Lean Dem if its Castor v. McCollum (or Byrd); Toss-Up if otherwise.  Since Castor and McCollum are winning their primaries, I'll give it to the Dems.

LA: My guess is lean Dem if John is their nominee, given the Dem's recent success in the state; I'll give it to the Dems.

SD: Lean Dem until a couple polls show me otherwise.

So 2 GOP pick-ups, 2 toss-ups.


Of the Republican held seats:

IL: Likely Dem; cancels out Georgia.

CO: Lean Dem; Salazar is proven statewide candidate.

OK: A toss-up, although I think the Republicans should be glad Coburn got in.

PA: Likely GOP if Spectre wins his primary, Lean Dem if Toomey wins....I'll give it to the GOP.

AK: Another toss-up.

2 Dem pick-ups, 2 Toss-ups.


Let's call the presidential race a toss-up and assume a Dem victory in MA Senate if Kerry wins.

This means the Dems need to win 3 of 4 toss-up races to win control: OK, AK, NC, President.

Of course, this all depends on the candidates, and is just guesses anyway.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

ok, but if Kerry wins MA Gov Romney appoints someone to take Kerrys seat, which will be a Republican.  Then, I believe that person would be up in a special election in 2006, along with Ted Kennedy who is also up in 2006.  I could be wrong about that, but intially Romney will appoint a Republican.  Moot point anyways because Bush is going to win.

The MA State Legislature is currently working on a bill that will allow for a special election within a couple months of the presidential election.  It is likely to pass with a veto-proof majority,

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

ok, but if Kerry wins MA Gov Romney appoints someone to take Kerrys seat, which will be a Republican.  Then, I believe that person would be up in a special election in 2006, along with Ted Kennedy who is also up in 2006.  I could be wrong about that, but intially Romney will appoint a Republican.  Moot point anyways because Bush is going to win.

The MA State Legislature is currently working on a bill that will allow for a special election within a couple months of the presidential election.  It is likely to pass with a veto-proof majority,

And before the Republicans start complaining....remember, you guys did almost the exact same thing two years ago to keep Murkowski's seat in GOP hands.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kansas went pretty heavily for Bush in 2000.  Now they've got a Democrat Governor cause we nominated someone that was too conservative for KANSAS   But I guess that was still a victory for you, eh?

At least you are supporting Mel in Florida, though I wish Mark Foley would have stayed in the race.

I agree we have a shot in IL if we play our cards right, but NV is hopeless after all our first, second, third, fourth, and fifth tier candidates dropped out.

I've already said, I think Toomey will win and is a better candidate than Specter.

I also think the Republicans are the favorites in Colorado, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Florida if they nominate Mel Martinez.  All these states went to bush in 2000.

We also have a shot in Illinois and Nevada.

I have no expectations of losing the Seante, with or without the Pennsylvania seat.

Foley might have been the GOP's best candidate in the general, but he could not have won a GOP primary with so many Christian conservatives against him.

And JohnFord...I don't think the Republicans even have a legitimate candidate in Nevada.