IA, PPP: Romney in the lead
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  IA, PPP: Romney in the lead		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: IA, PPP: Romney in the lead  (Read 2241 times)
krazen1211
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« on: October 19, 2012, 12:16:44 PM »
https://twitter.com/ppppolls

Romney 49
Obama 48


Great news!
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pa2011
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2012, 12:17:15 PM »
Romney 49. Obama 48, but PPP said Obama up 66 to 32 with early voters.

No link
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2012, 12:21:38 PM »
Not bad.

The early voting is likely going to give Obama the state again in 2012.
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2012, 12:21:54 PM »
Romney leading in Iowa and New hampshire but leading in Ohio and Virginia? Lol no.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2012, 12:24:08 PM »
The polls! They make no sense!
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2012, 12:24:40 PM »
This morning Chuck Todd talked about the difference between the polls and he noted that for states like OH, IA, NC the big dif between pollsters is how they deal with early voters. So depending on how you deal with them you end up with NBC +8 and PPP -1 for Obama. It isn't clear which is the "right way" to deal with early voters
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2012, 12:25:07 PM »
I was expecting worse...
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LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2012, 12:26:28 PM »

They haven't for months now...
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Cliffy
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2012, 12:27:07 PM »
PPP finally trying to save their credibility before the election is over?
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dirks
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2012, 12:27:32 PM »
I feel Romney is leading in VA, IA, and NH right about now (NH may be a tie) but Ohio has always been very slow to come around to him.
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2012, 12:39:36 PM »
Can't have it both ways, GOPers happy with IA and NH polls should cite the VA and OH ones as well!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2012, 12:45:48 PM »
Quote from: Devils30 on October 19, 2012, 12:39:36 PM
Can't have it both ways, GOPers happy with IA and NH polls should cite the VA and OH ones as well!

You forgot Colorado.
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2012, 12:50:17 PM »
PPP's reasoning does make a ton of sense though. If Obama has slipped with white voters you'd expect more of an effect with mostly white populations (NH,IA,WI) and less with high minority ones (VA, CO, FL). Most of Romney's Virginia and Florida surge comes from Rasmussen. I'd still favor Mitt heavily in FL but Obama is definitely still in contention to win Virginia.
 Ohio should have moved a bit rightward but the auto-bailout seems to have changed the game there this time around, bringing a usual R+1 state to a D+1. 
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2012, 01:04:36 PM »
This is less worrisome than the NH PPP poll (though obviously it is hardly comforting).  Romney is a horrible fit for the Midwest in general while Obama is a good fit for the region.  Also, NBC/Marist has Obama up by 8 here.  I suspect that Obama is probably ahead by about 3-4 points in Iowa.  That being said, I would really like more polling in this state to give us a better idea of what is going on here because someone is clearly wrong.
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J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2012, 01:11:24 PM »
A Romney lead is consistent with the absentee ballots.  Also, Obama overpolled there in 2008.
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pepper11
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2012, 01:22:25 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2012, 01:24:26 PM by pepper11 »
Slowly but surely all firms are trending to Rasmussen numbers.  This poll makes Marist look like a joke. But that's OK as NBC political team basically admitted as much when when their poll said 34 % in Iowa voted early while the Election commission states only 19% have.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2012, 01:24:59 PM »
Quote from: pa2011 on October 19, 2012, 12:17:15 PM
Romney 49. Obama 48, but PPP said Obama up 66 to 32 with early voters.

No link
Thanks for reposting the numbers. I refuse to open Krazen's posts.

It's not too bad of a position, but it depends on the polling dates...can someone hook me up with them?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2012, 01:40:45 PM »
New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-19

Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2012, 01:51:11 PM »
...

It's.  One.  Point.
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Franzl
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2012, 01:54:59 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 01:11:24 PM
A Romney lead is consistent with the absentee ballots.  Also, Obama overpolled there in 2008.

Bradley Effect?
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Umengus
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2012, 01:56:05 PM »
Party id: R +4 (2008: R+1)
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Devils30
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2012, 02:00:55 PM »
It is a bit more R leaning that most other polls have here, wouldnt be shocked if Obama is up 1 next time they poll.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2012, 02:08:03 PM »
Is this forum collectively not aware of what the margin of error is? Or just certain posters? The need to drive a narrative by certain posters here is shameless. This subsection of the forum in particular should have a ban on partisan hackery.
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Penelope
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2012, 02:20:29 PM »
Quote from: LiberalJunkie99 on October 19, 2012, 12:21:54 PM
Romney leading in Iowa and New hampshire but leading in Ohio and Virginia? Lol no.

This poll doesn't agree with the way I think the race is going. IT MUST BE WRONG!
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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2012, 02:41:42 PM »

On a poll that leans D, in a state where Obama overpolled slightly in 2008. 

Quote from: Senator Franzl on October 19, 2012, 01:54:59 PM
Quote from: J. J. on October 19, 2012, 01:11:24 PM
A Romney lead is consistent with the absentee ballots.  Also, Obama overpolled there in 2008.

Bradley Effect?

Possibly.  This the opposite of NV in some ways, where Obama underpolled. 

The absentees are also running more strongly R than 2008, and they keep strengthening, so far.
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