States that could surprise on election night

[Devils30]

Which states do you guys think could surprise for each side respectively. I would put Colorado at the top of the list for an Obama surprise win even if polls show a slight Romney lead. Could see Iowa going red the same way.

[Phony Moderate]

A closer-than-expected win in a Southern state for Romney, or a closer-than-expected win for Obama in a New England state.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Obama
Colorado
North Carolina
Florida
Virginia
Nevada
Arizona
Georgia

Romney
Iowa
New Hampshire
Virginia
Ohio
Connecticut
Maine

[Brittain33]

A Dem blowout in Colorado or stronger than expected win in Virginia (vs. a tie or Romney win) would be a potential surprise for Obama.

Ohio being too close to call for a long time.

NH declaring relatively early for Romney.

[Skill and Chance]

A Dem blowout in Colorado or stronger than expected win in Virginia (vs. a tie or Romney win) would be a potential surprise for Obama.

Ohio being too close to call for a long time.

NH declaring relatively early for Romney.

Why do you think Dems would underpoll in VA?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Utah, if Romney fails to get more than 70%.

[Eraserhead]

The size of Obama's win in NV will surprise some people who only pay attention to non-partisan public polls.

[Brittain33]

A Dem blowout in Colorado or stronger than expected win in Virginia (vs. a tie or Romney win) would be a potential surprise for Obama.

Ohio being too close to call for a long time.

NH declaring relatively early for Romney.

Why do you think Dems would underpoll in VA?

I was thinking of middle class and wealthy voters in NoVa, which is why I paired it with Colorado - it's a swingy group who've swung back to Romney recently I think.

[Brittain33]

The size of Obama's win in NV will surprise some people who only pay attention to non-partisan public polls.

Yes, Dems not underpolling in Nevada would be a surprise on election night.

[xavier110]

Obama will probably win Nevada by a margin larger than 5 points, Colorado could go for Obama by more than three.

New Hampshire has potential to break strongly for Romney, as does Iowa. The traditional battlegrounds of Ohio and Florida will remain close, though I guess there is a possibility that Obama wins Ohio by more than two points even if the popular vote nationally is tied.

[Devils30]

If PPP is right, this map could possibly save Obama on election night. Seems a tad odd but if it happens you'll probably win your election betting pool! Makes some sense though, Obama holds up in high minority states while losing working class whites.

[Cryptic]

Obama
Colorado
North Carolina
Florida
Virginia
Arizona

Romney
Iowa
New Hampshire
Virginia
Ohio
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania 

[GMantis]

In order from least surprising to most surprising:

Obama
Virginia
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
Arizona
Nebraska 2nd District

Romney
New Hampshire
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Nevada
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Maine 2nd District

[J. J.]

Romney:

CN
PA
OR

Obama:

IN
NC

[Spamage]

I;m positive Oregon will go for Obama but I believe that the margin could be much smaller than expected.

[opebo]

Romney:

CN

What's that?

[J. J.]

Romney:

CN

What's that?

CT, whatever. 

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Pennsylvania.

[LiberalJunkie]

I agree with most of the posts already. Nebraska and Kansas might be surprising with the margins possibly not changing much from 2008.

[Gass3268]

I think Arizona will be much closer then the polling suggests.

[Kalimantan]

Doubtful it will happen, but imagine if Ohio, Virginia, NC, Florida are called for Romney, followed by New Hampshire for the win... and then Arizona goes for Obama to seal the election.

Now THAT would be a rollercoaster of emotions for everyone

[opebo]

Doubtful it will happen, but imagine if Ohio, Virginia, NC, Florida are called for Romney, followed by New Hampshire for the win... and then Arizona goes for Obama to seal the election.

Now THAT would be a rollercoaster of emotions for everyone

You have painted a beautiful picture!

Would this allow a similar roller coaster?  Prehaps just as likely:

[SPQR]

New Hampshire being a bigger-than-expected win for either candidate.
North Carolina closer than what many (R) users expect.

[renegadedemocrat]

North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, and closer than what people think in South Dakota and Montana for Obama, while Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania for Romney, with closer than expected margins in New Mexico, Michigan, and Connecticut

[Stranger in a strange land]

For Obama: Arizona will be closer than expected, and he might even have a shot at winning if Romney makes another 47% type gaffe in the next few weeks or does poorly in the final debate.

For Romney: Winning New Hampshire, possibly even winning Wisconsin if he's having a good night.