If Obama hadn't butchered the first debate

[BlueSwan]

So if Obama hadn't look like a senior citizen on valium in the first debate, and instead had pulled in a performance more like the one in the second debate, what then? Let's say that both of the debates had been classic "ties" with reps favouring Romney, dems favouring Obama and independents splitting more or less down the middle.

What then?

The reason I'm asking is because I'm not totally convinced that it was Obamas poor performance that was the REAL game changer.

I believe the real game changer was Romney appearing as a viable candidate. During the GOP campaign Romney was mocked for not being able to close the deal in a historically weak field. During the summer he made a fool of himself on his tour of Europe and basically let the Obama campaign define him. Also the dem convention was far more persuasive than the GOP convention.

All of this meant that Romney both had trouble uniting the base and trouble looking like a viable candidate to independents. Hence a solid Obama lead in the polls despite the fact that it would be extremely tough for any president to get reelected in this economic climate.

The first debate changed that. Romney didn't look like a scary prospect for voters. He looked typcally "presidential", had command of his message and spoke coherently and forcefully.

That was the game changer. Despite the fact that I thought Obama won the second debate pretty conprehensively, it didn't really affect the polls because the real damage had been done in the first.

My guess is, that if both debates had been legitimate "ties" much of what I described would still have been happening. I think Obama would still have been ahead, but Romney would have been within striking distance.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I heard Obama was sick on the first debate.

[Eraserhead]

There were already some signs of the race tightening before the first debate anyway.

[sentinel]

I heard Obama was sick on the first debate.

Where?

[Brittain33]

Agreed. Romney showed himself to be a viable candidate and that was enough for him to soar from Santorum levels to Generic Republican competitiveness.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I heard Obama was sick on the first debate.

Where?

If you look at the RCP average of polls, Romney really started surging around September 29th as the 47% comment wore off. The debate just put fuel on the fire and gave the media an excuse to say the debate closed the gap.

[retromike22]

If only Barack hadn't forgotten the wedding anniversary!