Donerail
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2012, 03:13:40 PM » |
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Pretty bad Florida list. Here's what you should be watching:
Volusia-Obama/Scott county, farmers and bikers and retirees and small business owners and commuters. Big swing county. It's basically mini-Florida and probably our best bellwether. 10% black, 10% Hispanic, with 4 colleges. Right now I'd say Romney has the edge, but it's as much of a tossup as Florida itself.
Duval-Top battleground this year, unpredictable and confounding. Former Republican stronghold, and a combination of lifelong Blue Dogs, inner-city African-Americans, megachurch-going social conservatives, sailors, retirees, and moderate Republicans. 28% African-American. Fascinating party politics (past two Republican mayors raised taxes while new socially conservative Democratic mayor is hailed by tea party groups for budget-slashing (he won't say if he'll vote Obama or Romney)). Can be very very close with the right D on the ballot. It'll all depend on enthusiasm among Obama supporters. Like Osceola, it's all about margins.
Dade-Margins will determine Obama's victory. Undoubtedly the weirdest county in Florida, with nasty campaigns, public corruption, and the occasional Santeria sacrifice. 1.2 million voters; Obama's victory in Dade last time was 60% of his statewide victory margin. He won more votes there than in Broward in 2008, but if he can't get that again, Romney's shot goes significantly up. More than half were born in another country, 7/10 don't speak English at home, 65% Hispanic (including Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans, Colombians, and Puerto Ricans), 20% African-American, 16% white. Add in Jews, gays, and a few old Southerners, and you get the weirdness that is Dade.
Osceola-Transforming from rural cattle ranching to Puerto Rican-dominated low-crime and low-cost suburbs. 46% are Hispanic (mostly Puerto Rican), and Osceola is on the leading edge of Florida's demographic changes. Pretty safe D, but interesting to see how a county made up of upscale suburbanites, Puerto Rican/Nicaraguan/Colombian transplants, and old Florida cowboys mesh in an election. Romney doesn't need to win Osceola, but he needs to trim the margins (Rubio and Bush won Osceola).
Hillsborough-Volusia's counterpart on the other end of the I-4 corridor, Hillsborough is a confusing jumble of inner-city blacks in Tampa to college students at USF to farmers in Plant City. Tampa remains very heavily Democratic, while the rural areas are very heavily Republican. A microcosm of Florida itself, with a large city to small farms and suburbia in between. Good bellwether to watch.
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