Are Republicans ...

[Mr.Phips]

...I'm not sure we disagree here.  Do you just like arguing?

What was my prediction map?  ...Okay, here it is:

Obama 285.  Romney 253.  (ignore the confidence map.  I never really take that one seriously.)

My map is almost the same as yours.  We only differ on Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

No, no, I'm not arguing, just discussing.  We're not far off, no, not at all.  However my prediction is another matter entirely, and it is based on an optimistic but unprovable guess about Hispanics and turnout:

What I was getting at above was that I think the Romney win I showed was just as likely as any Obama win. 

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Really Opebo? All white men are the same, so you can't tell them apart?

Yeah, you're right - I find Romney far more dreadful than McCain.

Incumbent President's pretty much never win a state where they are trailing in the final average of polls.  The final RCP map had Bush at winning 296-242 and had him in the lead in Wisconsin, which Kerry won.  Obama will not win Florida. 

[milhouse24]

In the national polls Romney is certainly doing better than Kerry, however Kerry was doing better than Romney in the states. That election came down to who would win 2 out of 3 of PA, OH and FL. It was also another case of an RV/LV split where if Kerry could get out his vote (especially youngs) he would win. I thought Kerry would win PA and one of FL or OH. It turns out that while Kerry had a good GOTV machine, Bush had an amazing one, especially in FL.

I think the same dynamic is at work this time. Obama's GOTV effort is said to be bigger and more sophisticated than Bush's was (and better than Obama's in 2008). The question now is, how good is Romney's and the GOP's (Romeny is actually more reliant on the party for GOTV, Obama's campaign pretty much do their own GOTV).

Bottom line is that it was not delusional to believe Kerry had a good chance of winning, and it certainly isn't delusional to think Romney is going to win.

I think the Gore popular vote victory gave people a lot to expect from Kerry.
There was also a vocal anti-Iraq movement. 
Bush could have easily lost if not for his stronger GOTV operation. 
I think Kerry was a good-enough challenger, with regards to coming as close as he could without winning.  But I do think Kerry's wishy-washiness as a Senator hurt him and prevented him from peeling voters from Bush's solid voting block.
I think Kerry had a lot of media-coverage that helped his supporters gain confidence. 

They two very different people, the Southerner vs. the Northerner; the Devout Born-again Christian vs. the Liberal. 

I think Romney is more appealing to less-religious democrats and independents.  He can peel off some of the Obama supporters who are scared of conservative Christians.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No. Just J.J.

Seriously though to answer the question, on this board excluding the hacks, no I don't think so. But I don't think Democratic Partisans here were eight years ago either.

(Over here though it will be treated as quite a shock if Romney wins, but I'm on the other side of the pond).

[TheGlobalizer]

About what? Who will win? No. Romney may have clawed his way agonizingly to making it a jump ball, and I suspect most Pubs in this hood agree with me.

This, but I'd add that some of the assumptions in some of the polling are rather suspect, in a way that could turn into a comfortable election night victory for Romney.

[milhouse24]

No. Just J.J.

Seriously though to answer the question, on this board excluding the hacks, no I don't think so. But I don't think Democratic Partisans here were eight years ago either.

(Over here though it will be treated as quite a shock if Romney wins, but I'm on the other side of the pond).

In America, we don't like 8% unemployment. 

People living in foreign countries have no idea what its like to live in America. 

Foreigners are certainly influenced by the Glamorized Hollywood Liberal media; and foreigners think Bush is "retarded" but they are just jealous backseat drivers. 

Obama's the most Muslim-friendly president ever, and our Ambassador was still assassinated.  I support Muslim populism but it would be foolish to choose a president based on his favoribilitity with the global Muslim population.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No. Just J.J.

Seriously though to answer the question, on this board excluding the hacks, no I don't think so. But I don't think Democratic Partisans here were eight years ago either.

(Over here though it will be treated as quite a shock if Romney wins, but I'm on the other side of the pond).

In America, we don't like 8% unemployment. 

People living in foreign countries have no idea what its like to live in America. 

Foreigners are certainly influenced by the Glamorized Hollywood Liberal media; and foreigners think Bush is "retarded" but they are just jealous backseat drivers. 

Obama's the most Muslim-friendly president ever, and our Ambassador was still assassinated.  I support Muslim populism but it would be foolish to choose a president based on his favoribilitity with the global Muslim population.

Should I dignify this nonsense with an actual proper response?

[angus]

Obama's the most Muslim-friendly president ever, and our Ambassador was still assassinated.  I support Muslim populism but it would be foolish to choose a president based on his favoribilitity with the global Muslim population.

Actually, Obama is not polling well among foreign muslims at the moment.  15% on average in 21 countries, 7% in Pakistan.   

http://dailycaller.com/2012/06/14/poll-finds-obamas-approval-among-muslims-reaches-new-lows/

[opebo]

People living in foreign countries have no idea what its like to live in America. 

You're quite right about that - virtually every Asian I've met who has lived in America for a time, and particularly Thais, hated it.  Thai people are always so glad to come home it is rather endearing.  Of course, to be fair, those who go to study in the UK hate it even more than those who go to the US.