Ohio !!....

[The Vorlon]

The good folks at Terrance Group AND Teeter/Hart are currently polling Ohio.  Terrance group should be releasing on Friday.

These are two really EXCELLENT firms... likely both in the top 3 or 4 firms anywhere.

The results should.. within the limits of polling, be about as good a snap shot as we're gonna get of this really key state...

The two firms use very similar methodologies, which should likely skew things maybe a point or two towards the GOP this far out, so I will personally in my own mind be taking a point or two off the Bush total (They use very tightly constained turnout models) but that is very minor nit-picking...

Stay tuned... will post when I get details..

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Terrance Group is a Republican firm, right?

Have they released results from any other states this year to compare?

[angus]

I note that you've gone over to the FOX news channel coloring scheme, oddly.  You don't like the more traditional scheme used by Liep.  i.e., RED reminds me of communism, therefore red=democrats,  BLUE reminds me of patriotism, therefore blue=GOP.  Why FOX, of all groups, would have tried to popularize the reverse is a little bizarre.  Why you would choose to help them popularize it is a total mystery.

[The Vorlon]

Terrance Group is a Republican firm, right?

Have they released results from any other states this year to compare?

Yes, Ed Goaes of Terrance group is the "semi" official chief GOP pollster.  But he is DAMN good...

The professional association of "public opinion researchers" (that is what "pollsters" call themselves) has awarded Goaes their "Pollster of the Year" award three times...

Goaes is as good as it gets.

He DOES make a bunch of weighting assumptions, but unlike most, he clearly spells out what they are, and fully explains why he made them...

[The Vorlon]

I note that you've gone over to the FOX news channel coloring scheme, oddly.  You don't like the more traditional scheme used by Liep.  i.e., RED reminds me of communism, therefore red=democrats,  BLUE reminds me of patriotism, therefore blue=GOP.  Why FOX, of all groups, would have tried to popularize the reverse is a little bizarre.  Why you would choose to help them popularize it is a total mystery.

(It's my own April Fools gag... it flips back tomorrow... Hence the Quantum Reality tagline...)

[angus]

I note that you've gone over to the FOX news channel coloring scheme, oddly.  You don't like the more traditional scheme used by Liep.  i.e., RED reminds me of communism, therefore red=democrats,  BLUE reminds me of patriotism, therefore blue=GOP.  Why FOX, of all groups, would have tried to popularize the reverse is a little bizarre.  Why you would choose to help them popularize it is a total mystery.

(It's my own April Fools gag... it flips back tomorrow...)

ahhhh.  humiliating.  I've been falling for that kind of stuff at work all day!  Beef has certainly had a good day here.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Terrance Group is a Republican firm, right?

Have they released results from any other states this year to compare?

Yes, Ed Goaes of Terrance group is the "semi" official chief GOP pollster.  But he is DAMN good...

The professional association of "public opinion researchers" (that is what "pollsters" call themselves) has awarded Goaes their "Pollster of the Year" award three times...

Goaes is as good as it gets.

He DOES make a bunch of weighting assumptions, but unlike most, he clearly spells out what they are, and fully explains why he made them...

Did Goaes do the Battleground poll in 2000?  I seem to remember that poll weighted Dems and Republicans equally in party ID and consistently ended up with pro-GOP results.  Greenberg's Democracy Corp weighted Dems three or four points higher in Party ID, and they were pretty much the only ones who got it right on election day.  There are still more Democrats than Republicans in this country!  (although some of those Dems in the South never actually vote for Democrats in federal elections)

[agcatter]

a whole lot of those Southern Dems don't vote for national Dems.  However, there are fewer as a good many have now become Republicans.

[The Vorlon]

Terrance Group is a Republican firm, right?

Have they released results from any other states this year to compare?

Yes, Ed Goaes of Terrance group is the "semi" official chief GOP pollster.  But he is DAMN good...

The professional association of "public opinion researchers" (that is what "pollsters" call themselves) has awarded Goaes their "Pollster of the Year" award three times...

Goaes is as good as it gets.

He DOES make a bunch of weighting assumptions, but unlike most, he clearly spells out what they are, and fully explains why he made them...

Did Goaes do the Battleground poll in 2000?  I seem to remember that poll weighted Dems and Republicans equally in party ID and consistently ended up with pro-GOP results.  Greenberg's Democracy Corp weighted Dems three or four points higher in Party ID, and they were pretty much the only ones who got it right on election day.  There are still more Democrats than Republicans in this country!  (although some of those Dems in the South never actually vote for Democrats in federal elections)

Yes, Democracy Corps is a good firm - If you recall, I posted a list a while back of the "top tier" polling firms and they were on it...

I attached James Carville's name to the firm (he is a partner) just to tweak the Republicans by saying something nice about Carville...

The exact post was..

The Top Tier... Pretty darn good, most of the time...

<<list of other firms deleted to save space>>

Democracy Corps (Yes Republicans, James Carville's firm knows what they are doing.. marginal Dem bias)

........................

Actually, the 5 best results in 2000, in terms of accuracy were...

Actual = Gore + 0.51%

Harris Interactive = Predicted Gore + 0.7 => Error => .19%
CBS/NYTimes - Predicted Gore + 1 => Error = .49%
>>>>>>Historic footnote - Only time this poll has been within 8 points in 20 years!
FoxNews - Predicted Tie => Error = .51%
DDC/Yerxa - Predicted Bush +0.7 => Error = 1.21%
>>>>>Called 49/50 states correctly in the electoral college - they missed Wisconsin
Teeter/Hart - Predicted Bush +1 => Error = 1.51%

Battleground polll was HALF Goaes, the other half being a Dem firm (Snell/Lake/Perry) - Both good firms, but (apparently, if rumours are correct) a marriage made in hell...

Battleground weighted at 38/36/26 Dem/GOP/Ind in 2000.  They had Bush at +5 in 2000 (Waaaaay out on their turnout model - projected at 49%)

(There is a VERY interesting story about how turnout level projections  drove some very "strange" campaign behavior in 2000.... note to self to remember to post this at a later date...)

Believe me, Battleground is NOT The Terrance Group...

Ironically Both Terrance Group (Goaes) and Celinda Lake (Snell/Lake/Perry) released polls independently in 2000 that contradicted their "joint" Battleground poll.